GET OUT: US politics November 2020

frogbs: yes, high 60s.

Also, counting vs reporting.

xxxp that website Thermo Thinwall linked to says he'll need ~61% in PA

Lead's down to 97K now anyway, and will continue to shrink.

calm down y'all

I have probably messed this up but in a state biden is currently losing, I think he needs this to be true to win:

B >= (1+L/R)/2

B = biden share of remaining vote
L = current trump lead
R = number of remaining votes

so in PA B >= (1 + 108/340)/2 >= 65%

(he is going to win PA by quite a lot btw)

What the hell is going on with az? Why is it so up in the air?

i feel pretty optimistic that 1) trump is going to refuse to stop trying to lead the GOP, which is not good for them 2) trump is a unique and extremely charistmatic politician and there is no one else who can turn out voters for such incredibly unpopular policies and downticket candidates.

so, biden is going to be an impotent recession president, which obviously makes midterms and 2024 tough. but the GOP are in a pretty tough spot electorally now too. (the courts and statehouses etc. are another matter.)

A data point

New: Carbon Co. in the Poconos region reports its mail ballots. Biden is losing it by 32.2%, after Clinton lost it by 33.8%.

Even these tiny improvements w/ white working class voters are hugely meaningful b/c they prevent Trump from offsetting Biden's bigger suburban gains.

— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) November 5, 2020

e.g. this is true if he doesn't run himself, and doesn't seem like good praxis

just sat bolt upright with the realization that if he loses, Trump won't run for re-election in 2024 -- but he will insist on running the GOP primary like the apprentice

— Nathan Bernhardt (@jonbernhardt) November 5, 2020

even if he gets 65%, he's not going to win by a wide margin. I think what may be happening is there's 350k left to count but 500k left to report? then the "Biden wins by 200k" predictions make way more sense

and that trump jr tweet complaining that the future of the GOP is not helping out fills me with optimism.

I mean appreciate the sentiment but on certain level like look at the world around us and why the hell would anyone be calm?

lack the energy to be anxious today

What the hell is going on with az? Why is it so up in the air?

Short version: a unique blend of late coming mail voting that was more R than most of the rest, smaller/bluer counties, and a lot of provisional ballots, IIRC.

I think what may be happening is there's 350k left to count but 500k left to report? then the "Biden wins by 200k" predictions make way more sense

Yup.

Trump running the GOP primary like The Apprentice will be the pinnacle of the American project

Everyone in the replies to this lol

It does appear Biden is on track to take the lead soon in Erie Co., the ultimate PA bellwether.

— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) November 5, 2020

I mean appreciate the sentiment but on certain level like look at the world around us and why the hell would anyone be calm?

absolutely. it's just that trump's loss is a bigger problem for the medium term future of the GOP than i'd realized. it doesn't change the hole we're in right now.

What the hell is going on with az? Why is it so up in the air?

― Give me a Chad Smith-type feel (map), Thursday, November 5, 2020 3:23 PM (three minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink

Nate Cohn:

The late count in Arizona includes ballots in three categories: ballots that arrived in the mail in the final days before the election; mail ballots that were dropped off at polling places on Election Day; and provisional ballots, which are given to voters who cannot be validated as eligible to vote when they appear on Election Day. Usually, all three lean Democratic. This year, it’s not so clear.

Arizona is a state with many permanent absentee voters, who automatically receive absentee ballots in the mail. Registered Republicans outnumber Democrats among these voters. This year, Democrats sent in their ballots extremely quickly, giving them a big lead in the early mail vote. But as a result, the voters who received mail ballots but had not yet returned them were overwhelmingly Republican. There was no way to know whether they would return their ballots or just vote on Election Day. But if they did mail in their ballots, the late count could at least conceivably break overwhelmingly for the president.

There ya go

Harris County, GA just dropped their mail ballots. This was Trump's last favorable county with a significant number of mail votes outstanding. I estimated Trump winning them by 525. I was wrong.

Results:
Biden - 1,808 (50.4%)
Trump - 1,738 (48.4%)

— Ryan Anderson (@gtryan) November 5, 2020

they are going to face a problem similar to the Democrats, it's like Phil Jackson and the triangle offense, it works great when you have Jordan or Kobe, not so much without

Dem centrism worked with Clinton and Obama, two incredibly gifted politicians

I have doubts that Trumpism can work without Trump

xpost Now that's good news!

If 90% of the ballots are from Clark County, there's no reason not to call Nevada. https://t.co/0CaF4t4mgH

— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) November 5, 2020

Yep, over, over, over.

43,636 Georgia remaining (Harris reported nearly all)
If current percentage leads in already-counted votes apply to new counts:

Chatham 17,157 (58% Biden 41% Trump)
9,951 Biden
7,034 Trump

Fulton 7,305 (73% Biden 26% Trump)
5,333 Biden
1,899 Trump

1/3

— Brendan Keefe (@BrendanKeefe) November 5, 2020

I have doubts that Trumpism can work without Trump

― Blues Guitar Solo Heatmap (Free Download) (upper mississippi sh@kedown), Thursday, November 5, 2020 4:32 PM (one minute ago) bookmarkflaglink

i agree, and i also think we're not going to have the chance to find out for a few years because he's going to try to stay involved, which is in many ways worse news for the GOP than the fact they've lost their (unique, unrepeatable) leader.

Trumpworld very anxious right now about the prospect of Fox calling Pa. tonight.

— Jonathan Swan (@jonathanvswan) November 5, 2020

Tops off! pic.twitter.com/I2ecdXE4WC

— James Cullen (@jamescullen123) November 3, 2020

it's going to happen today

Maybe it's been mentioned in the CA thread, but the fact that Kamala Harris' BIL is head of legal for Uber and that one of their main labor consultants is an ex-Harris staffer does not inspire confidence.

they are going to face a problem similar to the Democrats, it's like Phil Jackson and the triangle offense, it works great when you have Jordan or Kobe, not so much without

Dem centrism worked with Clinton and Obama, two incredibly gifted politicians

I have doubts that Trumpism can work without Trump

― Blues Guitar Solo Heatmap (Free Download) (upper mississippi sh@kedown), Thursday, November 5, 2020 3:32 PM (three minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink

yeah I'm starting to think the "Return to sanity" thing we all mock the Dems for talking about might actually happen just as a function of Trump not being on TV all the fucking time anymore

So nevada is done and then that’s it or does he need another state?

In 2016, there were 7,788 military absentee votes in Pennsylvania, 5,203 in Georgia, and 2,677 in Nevada. Assuming similar numbers this year, it seems unlikely that those will make a difference unless it's *really* close in Georgia.

xpost If you were Fox/AP, yes, Nevada would lock it in.

gotta admit I am really enjoying the slow motion steamroller aspect of all this

it's going to happen today

Yes.

I don't feel like looking past the next couple of days, but I think Trumpism without Trump means more and more outright loonies, and *some* of them will get elected, at least until the GOP has a real reckoning. Which they won't, because they need the lunatic vote.

Think i’m gonna take a nap then lol

Maybe it's been mentioned in the CA thread, but the fact that Kamala Harris' BIL is head of legal for Uber and that one of their main labor consultants is an ex-Harris staffer does not inspire confidence.

oof.

Very real chance that Trump will be appointed Prime Minister of Florida.

Yeah I mean Kamala Harris (looks around for Shakey) is a cop and she sucks let’s be real

Do you think he’s yelling at the TV, is yelling from the toilet, or both

I'm 100% certain of little in life, but I am absolutely certain Trump has at least one TV in view from his shitter.

I am more happy about the symbolism of Harris than the candidate herself, sure, but I'll take it

He's probably yelling *at* the toilet. "Why won't you flush!?!??!?!"

Who needs a secdef, really

NBC reporting that @EsperDoD has prepared a letter of resignation.

— Jake Sherman (@JakeSherman) November 5, 2020

this is absolutely true btw

Trump lost Arizona because he's scared to be too far away from the Home Toilet. https://t.co/wYIMukLzMh

— man it’s a hot zone, (@Mobute) November 5, 2020

Aw, a shame.

Hard to overstate how angry Trump's advisers are at Fox right now. Just incandescent.

— Jonathan Swan (@jonathanvswan) November 5, 2020