GET OUT: US politics November 2020

speaking of

If I had to bet today, Trump has the edge, 60-40.

— Scott Adams (@ScottAdamsSays) November 5, 2020

Need to get back to basics, aka serving banks and corporations while ignoring the wholesale immiseration of the population

trying that on my new album

I don't want to link to the Twitter accounts that are posting it, but there are some hilarious back and forth comments in the responses to that SA tweet. Basically, a video of a poll worker counting ballots really fast keeps getting posted as proof of "obvious voter fraud" and when challenged to describe specifically what fraud is visible in the video, they just keep responding, "it's obvious to see, I don't have to spell it out". These deluded souls.

Georgia secretary of state: There are 47,277 outstanding ballots in the state

— Jeremy Diamond (@JDiamond1) November 5, 2020

I believe Biden is down 12k. These ballots are mostly in blue counties.

Genius:

I never see people driving around with Biden flags, someone want to explain how this guy who couldn’t fill a high school auditorium is leading currently?

— Kevin Sorbo (@ksorbs) November 5, 2020

one positive thing about Trump not having a dog, is that the dog would not be at risk of "assisted suicide" upon Trump's loss

He has a child with a dog’s name though

Donald Jr.?

RIP Blondi

The watermark thing is hilariously inept.

Of course it's a waste of time to pursue rational argument with these clowns but... CISA of course has nothing to do with ballots, which are produced by the states. I saw some posts about watermarks that literally used a memo from the CA Secretary of State as documentation. The poster somehow decided that Trump had appointed this guy to do a massive sting operation on dem cheating. Because of course since Trump appoints the US Secretary of State, surely he appoints all the subordinate ones, right?

Damn GA is going to be tight

https://media3.giphy.com/media/mmYy42RNrgA0w/giphy.gif

i'm not sure if this link has been shared, but i can't stop checking it....
https://alex.github.io/nyt-2020-election-scraper/battleground-state-changes.html

oh god that I cool but I wish I didn't know that exists

Good link. So if everything holds Biden will ultimately lose Arizona but pick up Pennsylvania and Georgia.

Well the window keeps shrinking in Arizona actually...

Arizona will be close but still feasible for Biden. Picking up all remaining states (I realize NC is still out for now, I think, but nobody thinks that'll change) just adds more of a useful cushion.

yeah I still really want him to pick up GA and NV just so we don't have to deal with weeks of dumb legal challenges in PA

Also: peaches for everyone!

xpost Those will be useless timewasters treated as such. Anyway, don't worry re NV, focus on Georgia instead.

Well the window keeps shrinking in Arizona actually

So THAT'S what Tump was on about with the whole "tiny windows" thing

I never see people driving around with Biden flags, someone want to explain how this guy who couldn’t fill a high school auditorium is leading currently?

what's that "accidentally leftist" account

Hold me closer
Tiny windows

I've mentioned this to a couple people but one (of many) reasons I hope Biden pulls this out is so that I don't have to pretend to like him anymore

They eat their own

The total lack of action from virtually all of the “2024 GOP hopefuls” is pretty amazing.

They have a perfect platform to show that they’re willing & able to fight but they will cower to the media mob instead.

Don’t worry @realDonaldTrump will fight & they can watch as usual!

— Donald Trump Jr. (@DonaldJTrumpJr) November 5, 2020

he's running

Into a brick wall

the only thing i have to remember is that that vote tallies site i shared doesn't make any guesses about which votes are outstanding. Pennsylvania, Arizona and Georgia still have mostly blue votes to tally (and military in GA). so hoping for Biden to keep a pace over 60% isn't unreasonable.

yeah the GA military ballots might make this reeeeeally close

I can't say this enough, he IS maintaining that in PA and he will win. This race is over except for formalities.

then we can look forward to weeks of Trump urging on faithless electors

Eric Trump & the Faithless Electors

produced by Ted Nugent

he's running

― Muswell Hillbilly Elegy (President Keyes), Thursday, November 5, 2020 9:02 PM

Into a brick wall

― Ned Raggett, Thursday, November 5, 2020 9:02 PM

TBF it was a very realistic painting of a tunnel.

In Pennsylvania, Trump currently leads Biden by 108,367 votes, but that lead has been narrowing as more ballots have been counted. Approximately 340,000 mail-in votes are left to count. https://t.co/pMBNZu2kXo

— FiveThirtyEight (@FiveThirtyEight) November 5, 2020

doesn't this mean he'll need about 70% to win

all indications are that he's gonna go above that but I was hearing he would likely win PA by 200k votes yesterday

marc esper resigning?

ok panic back

Still nervous, can't help it, but: if everything works out, lawsuits being laughed out of court and Trump holed up in the White House having to endure an agonizingly slow shift towards Biden is just about as perfect as the crushing landslide I was hoping for.

frogbs: yes, high 60s.

Also, counting vs reporting.

xxxp that website Thermo Thinwall linked to says he'll need ~61% in PA

Lead's down to 97K now anyway, and will continue to shrink.

calm down y'all

I have probably messed this up but in a state biden is currently losing, I think he needs this to be true to win:

B >= (1+L/R)/2

B = biden share of remaining vote
L = current trump lead
R = number of remaining votes

so in PA B >= (1 + 108/340)/2 >= 65%

(he is going to win PA by quite a lot btw)

What the hell is going on with az? Why is it so up in the air?

i feel pretty optimistic that 1) trump is going to refuse to stop trying to lead the GOP, which is not good for them 2) trump is a unique and extremely charistmatic politician and there is no one else who can turn out voters for such incredibly unpopular policies and downticket candidates.

so, biden is going to be an impotent recession president, which obviously makes midterms and 2024 tough. but the GOP are in a pretty tough spot electorally now too. (the courts and statehouses etc. are another matter.)

A data point

New: Carbon Co. in the Poconos region reports its mail ballots. Biden is losing it by 32.2%, after Clinton lost it by 33.8%.

Even these tiny improvements w/ white working class voters are hugely meaningful b/c they prevent Trump from offsetting Biden's bigger suburban gains.

— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) November 5, 2020