GET OUT: US politics November 2020

I don't know how you're going to find non-voters who are people of good will and good sense, but who just haven't happened to be engaged with politics up to this point.

thing is, not all non-voters are equal. And some of that inequality feeds the non-voting. If the electoral college went away and things were actually determined by the popular vote, you would probably see some shift. In some ways, I feel this feeds into the centrism of the Democratic Party, and a bunch of anger and resentment on the parts of "disenfranchised" progressives in California, Mass., NY that the Party cares less about because their states are already blue

I don't believe in the "shy Trump voter" anymore, or at least in any significant number--four years ago, yes, but they don't seem particularly reticent anymore. This is a longshot, but I wonder if Trump voters intentionally lie with pollsters just for the hell of it. If you have nothing but contempt for normalcy--e.g., polls as a reasonably accurate gauge of what will happen--and want to be as disruptive as possible, why wouldn't you?

Trump, and by extension, his voters, really really love being up in the polls, it's why every time Trump got a somewhat decent looking poll from Rasmussen he'd crow about it for days. remember Trump being up makes libs feel bad so why wouldn't they try to boost his standing?

(538 had WI as +8 Biden fwiw, not sure where that +17 number is coming from?)

was just one poll that was immediately recognized as an outlier, but it did come from a high quality pollster

people don't just get "annoyed with liberals" by themselves, people get "annoyed with liberals" because e.g. Joe Rogan tells them to xposts

And now, a word from our sponsor

Inbox: an all-caps statement from the president. pic.twitter.com/wI54sELjTB

— Josh Wingrove (@josh_wingrove) November 5, 2020

Frogbs otm

well, i think it's even simpler. the average person is terrified by political correctness. they do not want to lose their job and reputation because they said something considered taboo. so they sympathize with trump when he is getting flayed for stuff he says. maybe they think that if he absorbs all this anger, then they too could be spared, like some form of mystical displacement. (the jesus theory).

liberals are annoying tbf

Anyone who says "I'm tired of this PC stuff" is probably a racist fwiw

Simon re nonvoters - please tell us more about this allegedly large and diverse group and what will work to reach and motivate different segments of it, would love to hear some ideas and subscribe to a newsletter about them

(tbc leftists are more annoying)

RIP graceful concession speech

everyone who is politically engaged is annoying, with the possible exception of angela davis.

people might have gotten really annoyed with liberals. could have been that simple.

relatable

(xposts) That's a good counter-argument. But to be so off in so many states, or to get things like that +17 poll in Wisconsin--I mean, I know about outliers and margin of error and all that, but +17???--I don't get it.

Statement from the President:

IF YOU GIVE A MOUSE A COOKIE...

bullshit treeship, all that stuff ("average person is terrified by PC") is the right wing party line that has been pushed so often that it has become "common sense", like so much right wing BS before. Your average person agrees with PC things (respects gay rights for example)

people don't just get "annoyed with liberals" by themselves, people get "annoyed with liberals" because e.g. Joe Rogan tells them to xposts

― Dan I., Thursday, November 5, 2020 12:46 PM (twenty-four seconds ago) bookmarkflaglink

maybe idk.

in any case i have noticed a turn. i went to an outdoor wedding and some people were being really rude to me. it was explained later that it was due to the fact i was wearing a mask and also just kind of looked and sounded like i wasn't from around there.

Simon re nonvoters - please tell us more about this allegedly large and diverse group and what will work to reach and motivate different segments of it, would love to hear some ideas and subscribe to a newsletter about them

YMP I'm not claiming perfect knowledge of any kind, but you're talking about like 40%(ish) of a massive country, how could they not be diverse in every possible sense?

this kind of hostility toward elites --- not even elites, i'm not an elite -- but just like general cultural tension is weird and bad

As for Jacobin, I don't really care either way whether it exists or not. I have so little faith in so-called representational democracy that any organization that supports itself by selling a more radical form of representational democracy is automatically suspect in my eyes.

(xposts) That's a good counter-argument. But to be so off in so many states, or to get things like that +17 poll in Wisconsin--I mean, I know about outliers and margin of error and all that, but +17???--I don't get it.

― clemenza, Thursday, November 5, 2020 12:49 PM (one minute ago) bookmarkflaglink

sometimes a random sample is not representative of the entire population. it happens.

Just have to take a moment to gasp at how fucked up it is that "some amorphous group of people think I'm a bad person" could possibly be a big driver in choosing who to vote for

A statement from the President consisting of the President quoting himself.

Re the +17 Wisconsin (ABC/Washington Post) poll, this is what Nate Cohn said after the +7 Iowa (Selzer) poll:

The Selzer poll has quite a bit in common with the ABC/Post poll. Both use random digit dialing (R.D.D.), a technique that allows the pollster to reach a random sample of all adults. In contrast, many state polls, including the Times/Siena poll, call voters from a list of registered voters. Both techniques have their advantages and disadvantages, but the big drawback of R.D.D. polling is that it can be noisy and prone to outlying results.

Why? An R.D.D. pollster can weight only on the demographic characteristics of the full adult population, like age or race. As a result, it has relatively few means to control the partisan balance of its sample. That’s especially true in Iowa, where voters aren’t particularly divided along demographic lines; therefore, demographic weighting doesn’t do much to ensure a politically balanced sample.

In contrast, a pollster using the voter file, like Monmouth or Times/Siena, can ensure a proper balance between registered Democrats and Republicans. That’s not something the R.D.D. pollsters can do, and helps explain why ABC/Post and Selzer surveys were somewhat likelier than average to have the week’s outlying results.

could offer them something to vote for I guess rather than against I dunno just an idea

I guess the best way to view the +17 poll is like Mike Trout going 0-20, or that game where Joel Embid scored zero points last year. I'm sure that's happened with Trout, and it did happen with Embid.

i feel like, in this election, "stop trump" should have been a good argument. like, if i am losing massive amounts of blood due to a gash on my arm that cut an artery, i would feel positively toward a doctor who promised to stop the bleeding. i wouldn't first ask him if there was a way to make my arm stronger in the process.

xp

any organization that supports itself by selling a more radical form of representational democracy is automatically suspect in my eyes

I have no idea what you think anyone should be doing then - armed uprising? don't see that going well rn

Nate says that "Nevada is probably callable at this point."

Just heard Trump described as being in a social media bunker. Nice allusion.

ok but which nate

xp

i only trust nate robinson

my two main takeaways here re: what Dems can learn from Trump

1) Trump managed to do one thing very well, and that is make someone's political affiliation part of their core identity, every much as race or religion or gender. They might not say it in public but I truly believe a lot of conservatives feel like they're persecuted for their beliefs in much the same way black people "used to" get discriminated against for being black. The one term I heard approximately 10,000,000 times over the last 5 years was "TDS", roughly translated to "Trump triggers you so much that you'll believe anything that makes him look bad". There is definitely a cult-like aspect to it. To be a follower of Trump is to be loved and accepted by a large group of people no matter how shitty and obviously untrue your beliefs are. They have to find a way to attack conservative ideas without making conservatives feel they're being personally attacked. Having Trump out of the picture probably will help here.

2) Running on bold, concrete ideas does not make you unelectable. You have to find a way to sell them. When Trump started his campaign in 2015, most Republicans thought he was a clown. They polled his wall idea and support for it was like...20%. By the end of 2016 it was up to around 90%. If you want to peel off Trump voters, offer them ideas. Don't just tell them why theirs suck. A lot of these people could be talked into universal health care, clean energy, $15 minimum wage, etc. etc. Because these are good policies that help people.

Treeship don’t take this the wrong way and in some ways it’s risible that I’m the one asking this but have you ever met anyone

"i feel like, in this election, "stop trump" should have been a good argument"

Well he is going to lose. But yes should not have been this close.

i only trust nate robinson

― la table sur la table (voodoo chili), Thursday, November 5, 2020 12:55 PM (twenty seconds ago) bookmarkflaglink

america's greatest socialist, as my brother calls him (mockingly)

85% sure nathan robinson is an op

this is the sort of thing nate silver should be calculating imo

"stop trump" is not a good argument when 44% of the population thinks he's doing a great job

Treeship don’t take this the wrong way and in some ways it’s risible that I’m the one asking this but have you ever met anyone

― all cats are beautiful (silby), Thursday, November 5, 2020 12:56 PM (thirty-one seconds ago) bookmarkflaglink

yeah, that's why i am sharing anecdotes about meeting trump supporitng anti-mask people recently. it was a bad experience! it is a culture war to these folks!

smdh

Nate Robinson, Knicks PG?

and yeah, frogbs is right. trump made political affiliation central to his supporters' identities and this is really bad for the country.

Stop X has never shown itself to be a winning strategy for Democratic Presidential candidates.

yeah, that's why i am sharing anecdotes about meeting trump supporitng anti-mask people recently. it was a bad experience! it is a culture war to these folks!

so, this is one really nice thing about Trump losing, he will not be on TV anywhere near as much, his tweets will not be national news, nobody has to give a shit about anything he says anymore. he was the one guy turning this into a culture war issue, and only because he knew it reflected poorly on him. once you stop giving him so much airtime I think a lot of that goes away.

2) Running on bold, concrete ideas does not make you unelectable. You have to find a way to sell them. When Trump started his campaign in 2015, most Republicans thought he was a clown. They polled his wall idea and support for it was like...20%. By the end of 2016 it was up to around 90%. If you want to peel off Trump voters, offer them ideas. Don't just tell them why theirs suck. A lot of these people could be talked into universal health care, clean energy, $15 minimum wage, etc. etc. Because these are good policies that help people.

this is true too. this trump shit was 100% theater and tribal affiliation, like some perverted version of being a juggalo

is the lollapalooza fencing still up around the WH?

Nate Silver had a fun take on the fix Fox finds itself in. By declaring Arizona for Biden, and sticking with the call, then they more or less have to call the entire race if Biden gets Nevada. Unless they back down on Arizona, but they haven't done that so far, so ...

there’s a fuckload of rural people who distrust organized anything who arent on social media, who wont talk to cavassers or phonebankers who just vote the way they want to vote — that portion isnt shy, they’re mad & they are very much unaccounted for