GET OUT: US politics November 2020

far from the sadding crowd

ummm...what

NEW: In court hearing, 150,000 ballots delivered *yesterday* by US Postal Service. These include large numbers of ballots put in mail Sunday. Including in Atlanta !!!

— Scott MacFarlane (@MacFarlaneNews) November 5, 2020

Basically, nothing has actually STOPPED the count.

wow, guess we really are lucky there's a family guy

xp

Has anyone else experienced being told by a news person on your TV set that his campaign is filing lawsuits all over the map, without a word said about the GROUNDS for such lawsuits?

Second question: how does that inform anyone?

— Jay Rosen (@jayrosen_nyu) November 5, 2020

^^ I keep coming back to this, it's so annoying that media still fall for the 'omg lawsuits!' without backing up if it is even remotely credible.

Game changer... https://t.co/dBFKnOZjOG

— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) November 5, 2020

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S6zLFOHsxSw

in breaking little wayne news
https://www.vulture.com/2020/11/lil-wayne-dumped-trump-endorsement.html

I wish Wasserman wouldn't empty cliches like that which do nothing for people who aren't in the scrim.

also fuck this creul world

In Derry, N.H., a bit of hand sanitizer briefly gummed up a ballot reader on Election Day.
Until this year, for instance, “hand sanitizer was never a thing at a polling place,” said Tina Guilford, an election official in Derry, where just over 18,000 people voted. The ballot that jammed the machine was ultimately hand counted, she noted, and the ballot reader was taken out of service.

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2020/11/05/us/election-results/voting-glitches-via-hand-sanitizer-welcome-to-2020

but what about people in the scrum?

Oh scram

what a headline

https://www.thedailybeast.com/nate-silver-tells-fivethirtyeight-critics-fuck-you-we-did-a-good-job

fuck you poll me

lol

can someone explain what "Game Changer" means in above Wasserman tweet? good or bad?

they're biden counties

thx I'm so tired of this

To frogbs's link: Yeah. Not to be Cap'n Save-a-Nate but 538 has always been really transparent about its activities. Blaming them for failing to do what they KEEP EXPLICITLY TELLING YOU THEY CAN'T DO is demented.

Still, polling is broken, probably forever, and we need to consider replacing or abolishing it. Or just somehow reducing our addiction to it.

yeah correct me if I'm wrong but it seems very likely Biden's getting both GA and NV, who cares about AZ, won't need PA but will definitely get it anyway

I think a lot of it is just the overall frustration with polling in general is aimed at 538 since Nate became pretty much the face of polling.

I guess an argument could be made that 538 didn't properly handicap polls, but that's kind of a stretch

Jon, right. If I were Silver I would nope out next time and let the slavering mobs function without a scapegoat.

Nate Silver is definitely very good at what he does but if the data isn't solid then what can ya do. I think his system builds in a lot of uncertainty which is good. like I was clowning on him for saying there was even a 2% shot of the GOP getting the trifecta but that doesn't seem so farfetched now

Silver can be kind of a smug dick. But at the same time, I don't think he deserves a lot of the criticism for the polling being off. He's not a pollster himself; he makes models and forecasts based on polling data. So if there's bad data, there will be bad forecasts. That's not his fault.

Nevada still looking safe:

NEWS: First batch of new votes from NV, from Clark, shows Biden lead up to 12K.

— Jon Ralston (@RalstonReports) November 5, 2020

Updated data: Biden lead over Trump in Nevada expands from 7,647 to 12,042

— Jake Tapper (@jaketapper) November 5, 2020

xxp But I have to imagine there's going to be an epistemic crisis within the polling industry now, and I'll be curious to see how that will influence what 538 does.

having to explain 10,000 times that a 30% chance is not a 0% chance would drive anyone to be a smug dick

xpost - Yeah, right or wrong, this is when Silver's unexpected popularity is going to come back and bite him in the ass, since he's the only "name" guy for people to blast. It's easier to rage at one guy on Twitter than a more ambiguous, faceless names behind the polls themselves.

i've checked out of a lot of the late-counting drame, but...

general question: these late-ballot shifts toward Biden - are they affecting the down-ballot races at all? is the disappointing non-presidential picture of tuesday looking any better?

oh fuck

BREAKING: Donald Trump is elected president of the United States. pic.twitter.com/yJpgfsAbc6

— The Associated Press (@AP) November 9, 2016

FP

lol you asshole

xp It looks like in GA it's likely to pull Tillis down to <50% triggering a runoff

not funny

Possible we'll end up w/ 2 runoffs in GA

lol not funny today, jesus

also, there is a 78% possibility that nate silver will be back and more popular in 2024. the demise of "the polling industry" is probably being exaggerated right now. there will always be an appetite for predictions, forecasts, prognostication, and polling. people crave it like hot wings. frank luntz can go fuck off for life in his replica oval office he built for himself like the empty fucking prick he is. but people like nate silver will still be right there in 2024, probably with even more influence

Is it just the typical jerk-off to the DSA, class-reductionist nonsense written by a 28 year old with fabulously wealthy parents who lives in Oakland?

lol were you thinking of someone specific, T?

if anything Silver will be in the greatest demand ever over the next while, as the counts really fill out in various places and it becomes possibly to articulate with greater precision What The Polls Missed, etc. there might even --- and i don't have a probability on this --- be demand for postmortem election takes on What Happened and What Went Wrong. imagine!

i've been too overwhelmed with everything to look into the polling errors this cycle. there's always some speculation that there is a small group of total racists who are too cowardly to say they support trump in a poll, but then pull the lever for him (or poke the touchscreen or seal the envelope).

but is it something else? systematic sample-selection issues?

- the "shy trumper" is real after all.
- turns out some minorities are fascists (contrary to many folks, I don't think this is necessarily dem's fault)

Polling was pretty spot-on in the midterms. When Trump is on the ticket, all the models go haywire, for some reason.

oh and "more turnout will always help dems!" is wrong, because most of the people who didn't vote before are even dumber than the population in general

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-IXaFLHN1n4

idk if the shy Trumper thing is real, it certainly wasn't in '16 or '18 so why would it be now? would think if anything these people are more emboldened and loud

my guess for the main source of the polling error is the high turnout, I think having some 15 million additional voters causes some weird things to happen

also the assumption that "Covid will hurt Trump" is exactly backwards, rather it should've been looked at as "Covid is out of control because there are so many Trump voters"

Which is why I couldn’t believe Wisconsin would break toward Biden until the count was complete.

Xpost to sarahell, no, but a lot of DSA cultist types are there. Jacobin is a trash publication for young college-educated whites who didn't care about politics or policy before Trump.