GET OUT: US politics November 2020

surely it will be very unfair not to declare for the guy who's had your back for the last few years, or at least been in charge of the knife in it

Re US/UK: This feels kinda like cricket, in that it's all about wheter the late team manages to catch up with the score set by the early team.

So at this point it's looking like Friday is when the Biden/Harris FUCK YOUR FEELINGS T-shirts go on sale, right?

We’ll get a lot more clarity on Nevada in a little over three hours from now, when Clark and Washoe counties (read: Las Vegas and Reno) release new totals.

(xp) Careful, you'll have Americans imagining they finally understand cricket.

Yeah Friday was when a lot of people were figuring PA would be fully settled.

Anyway, thing to watch for is if Nevada’s news today make it a clear Biden lead or victory, Fox and the AP would then call for the presidency. And if that’s the case I hope Trump’s watching Fox at that very moment.

Now that Trump is going to the courts to prevent MY ballot from being counted, I can call myself a victim of tyranny for the rest of my days!

Trump won Michigan by 0.23% in 2016. Biden is currently winning Michigan by more than 12 times that margin.

— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) November 5, 2020

Using multiplicative comparisons are kinda dumb for numbers that lie around zero. If I won by one vote and you now lead by 10000, your margin is 10000 times mine, while if I won by 200 (which is very close in actual numbers), the factor is "only" 50.

Well, as some of the comments noted, Trump absolutely crowed about his Michigan win in 2016. So probably healthy not to buy into a pre-fab GOP-friendly myth that Biden barely won when he won certain states by a lot more than Trump did.

Ralston on a tear against morons, check his thread for more.

T-minus three hours until new numbers supposed to be released in Nevada, where Joe Biden has a 7,500-vote lead.

A half-hour before that, GOP vaudeville show, better than any act you will find on the Strip, will gather where votes are being counted to yammer and maybe sue. Again. pic.twitter.com/aTFGwrNATk

— Jon Ralston (@RalstonReports) November 5, 2020

Treeship -

You are right that none of it is Silver's fault, and he keeps bending over backward to tell us what he can and can't do.

However, for better or worse he's become the public face of polling as an institution. Mostly because no one knows who the fuck is a yougov or a Rasmussen or a trafalgar or whatever. RealClear, the other well-known aggregator, is just a website, not a person.

People like having one throat to throttle, and he's it. If I were Silver I'd say fuck this noise qnd just go think about baseball.

xps but the multiplicative comparison of MI margins is based on percentages.

Massive xposts, but does anyone have a link to donate to silby and milo's kickstarter for their new edition of Gamma World?

although I guess the point still stands. It’s a very small number vs. a larger very small number.

xps but the multiplicative comparison of MI margins is based on percentages.

Doesn't really matter, I think, the real problem is using multiplicative comparisons when the quantity you compare is the difference between two other fundamental quantities, such as vote numbers or, yes, vote percentages. But sure, I'm being a bit rigorous here, and I do see it can be used to push a point.

xp yeah

I won't be happy until good signs for Biden include him taking the lead, but

In 2016, Clinton won Montgomery Co., PA by 21.3 points. Biden's lead there just climbed to 26.0 points w/ additional mail ballots counted.

PA is the ballgame, but at continued rates like these it wouldn't be much of one.

— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) November 5, 2020

millennials are having a real pronounced "fuck I'm old" moment by watching zoomers experience 2000

ya, all this "good news" in PA is not very comforting when he's still trailing and pre-election prediction were off to the degree they were (i get the logic why people are confident there, before anyone jumps down my throat).

xpost

lol i was born in 1981 and when i brought up Election Day 2000 a couple weeks ago, one of my students reported that that was the day she was born

yikes

(these are sophomores in college, to be clear)

I guess taht at least there will be momentum carried by grassroots concerns in a way that wouldn't be there if there had been a fairer more aglaitarianly carried out election.
NOt to plollyanna or anything, like.

Hope taht those issues that have come to light over the year do get to progress a lot more in the next couple of years. Racism isn't going to disappear and may be a little bit more likely not to findf a new form to morph into so it isn't addressed for another while because oh things are so much better now. & nobody's going to have an excuse to gut voter's rights like they did leading to this.
Really hoping that some people who aren't black are asking what happened to BLM if it has all but vanished from teh media.
A clean sweep across teh boards might lead tehm to think it was sorted, like.

Would be so good if the Dems did address the leadership of the houses and found somebody more in tune with current concerns.

lol i was born in 1981 and when i brought up Election Day 2000 a couple weeks ago, one of my students reported that that was the day she was born

I remember that night very well and tbh I'd rather have been in labor

I saw someone note that if all Biden does is implement a coherent policy for dealing with covid, an illness that is killing thousands of people, infecting hundreds of thousands, and basically putting a strain on every aspect of our lives, his presidency would be historic.

Some very good news unmentioned upthread:

Oregon Measure 110, which decriminalizes personal possession of all recreational drugs, passed resoundingly with a 58.6% vote share. If they have results as seen in Portugal (which did this in 2001), it could be a huge step towards a ceasefire in the "War on Drugs".

Just saw that the GA vote should be done by noon, and that there are some 60000 ballots left to process. Really, if Biden loses there should be a recount, because Kemp et al., but I think that's only an option in GA if the margin is .5% or something.

#BREAKING: Georgia Senator David Perdue (R-Inc) has now fallen below the 50% mark. With outstanding ballots to be counted coming from primarily Democratic-leaning precincts, it is likely that Georgia will have two runoff races for U.S. Senate.

— Political Polls (@PpollingNumbers) November 5, 2020

yesssss

Good morning!

the existence of two runoff races is good news for the country, not just because it provides a plausible path for a split senate, but because that possibility has the potential to make current GOP senators behave better. for example, mitch is now angling for a stimulus deal before the end of the year.

that is awesome news

great news, first thing that's made me slightly optimistic in days

speaking of the georgia runoff, i want to live in a world where a guy like this is a u.s. senator

Get ready Georgia. The negative ads against us are coming.

But that won’t stop us from fighting for a better future for Georgians and focusing on the issues that matter. pic.twitter.com/VN0YIA02MG

— Reverend Raphael Warnock (@ReverendWarnock) November 5, 2020

Eating pizza with utensils! I wish I had a senator like him.

Dammit, now I have to give more money to this guy.

and hopefully the double senate run-off races in Georgia will be synergistic and increase democratic enthusiasm for voting

he seems like a winner to me. feeling good. since polls don't matter anymore i'm riding purely on vibes

US Politics in 2020 = "By the way? I love puppies."

Nate Silver
Nov. 5, 10:25 am

The state of Georgia has released estimates about where outstanding absentee ballots remain to be counted. There’s good news for Biden here: They’re mostly in blue counties. Below, I’ve listed each county’s partisan lean in 2016 — that is, how much more Democratic or Repbulican it was than the state overall in presidential voting that year. Weighting the counties by how many votes they have outstanding, Clinton won them by an average of 14 points in 2016, a year when she lost Georgia by 5 points statewide. Thus, these counties are 19 points bluer than the state on average.

the margin in GA is already <.5% afaik, so there will likely be a recount

If requested.

if it's that close though I would think whoever is on the losing side is going to request it

so eating pizza with utensils isn't bad enough to get you mocked forever anymore

someone really should have a chart on the ever-fluctuating ways it is and is not acceptable to morally neutrally eat food

And here I thought the relentless text messages from political orgs that think I still live in Georgia were over.

I have always eaten pizza with utensils and I did so on Election Night.

is the Oregon drug ballot measure one of those "nice but about to be immediately overturned by some other legal force" things? we're all going to need more drugs in the future

referring specifically to when pete ate pizza with utensils and everyone immediately savaged him for this unpardonable offense, despite eating pizza with utensils being a thing that is done by many people, not all of whom are Bad(tm)

That's because Pete sucks