GET OUT: US politics November 2020

lou dobbs is the friends we made along the way

We won 40 seats just 15 months ago. We'll lose 60 with Sanders as nominee. That whole wonderful class is at risk. And then some. https://t.co/VtntXA8fB5

— Tom Watson (@tomwatson) February 18, 2020

Oh FFS, for a minute there I thought the timeline had eaten some British Tom Watson.

dobbsNation

― @oneposter(✔️) (Karl Malone), Wednesday, November 4, 2020 11:24 PM (yesterday)

speaking of somewhere Lou and fascist white boys don't want to try exerting a "demanding presence" ...

xp both Tom Watsons are friends so you can take it as such

So t-boy's heading for the big scoreboard armed with a kingsize sharpie.
Do you think anybody's going to notice?

What's happening with Arizona? Guardian now saying it could be back in play? https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/live/2020/nov/04/us-election-2020-votes-live-updates-donald-trump-joe-biden-latest-presidential-news-updates?page=with:block-5fa3c3c88f084b6777510867#block-5fa3c3c88f084b6777510867

doesn't your link explain it exactly via a local report

What I'm hearing is that the Maricopa County ballot drop tilted 57-40 towards Trump, narrowing Biden's lead from 90,000 to 68,000. If such a pattern repeated across every single county, for all 470,000 votes left to count, then Trump could further close the gap. Since Arizona's 15 counties include areas that are very blue (such as Pima, Coconino and Santa Cruz counties), it would be unlikely that he replicates the exact same proportion, especially as this includes pre-poll mail-in ballots, pre-poll in-person ballots, and provisional votes. The latter trend Democratic, and there are 36,000 of them in two counties alone. So it's good you asked!

This is probs bullshit but

Fascinating pattern Miami-Dade & many Texas counties '16 to'20:
Turnout substantially increases
Trump raw vote substantially increases
Biden matches Clinton's raw votes
- Close to 100% of "new" voters seemingly vote Trump..for example Miami-Dade 1/5

— David Manel (@DavidManel) November 4, 2020

why bullshit?

I wanna thank this thread for serving as a lab for a few ideas in my election post-mortem.

Aimless

That Politico article comparing Trump to Julius Caesar makes its points by distorting and eliding a hell of a lot of history. It doesn't mention Sulla, or Pompey the Great, or Crassus...

Well, they both had terrible hair

"The name is Crassus not Clashus..."

why bullshit?

― Patriotic Goiter (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Thursday, November 5, 2020 11:32 AM (twenty-two minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink

because it's a twitter conspiracy theory that supports my belief that things should have swung further in the Dems' direction, which I wish to be true

was trump's denigration of mail-in voting just a scheme to make sure his margins would be better on election night than they would be in reality, giving him an opening to declare victory?

kind of smart and it kind of worked tbh

if these numbers are right i don't think biden's going make it in georgia

A nail-biter: The gap in Georgia has narrowed to about 18,500 votes between Trump and Biden. The Secretary of State told @wsbtv there are fewer than 25,000 absentee ballots remaining and they should be finished by noon today. #gapol pic.twitter.com/cKU7IWavVo

— Greg Bluestein (@bluestein) November 5, 2020

Philly will deal with any Dobbs people accordingly. Remember, this is a city where many people have little to lose and everything to gain-- beating the shit out of some fascist asshole isn't the way most people would like to spend time, but they'll do it gladly.

Also, much of the ridiculous fantasizing about the eventual course of this doomed country was eerily similar to 'On Such a Full Sea,' a great book by Chang-Rae Lee.

Personally, I don't see it getting as bad as all that in our lifetimes. My main concern is buying and building on a radical land-sharing project in a place with fresh water and inviting others to live there and maintain it as the oceans rise and parts of the country desertify.

Replies to that tweet seem to suggest that not all counted votes have been reported yet so the gap might be less than 18.5K and still 25K votes to go xp

Also, will someone summarize that Jacobin article posted up thread? Is it just the typical jerk-off to the DSA, class-reductionist nonsense written by a 28 year old with fabulously wealthy parents who lives in Oakland?

why is nate silver getting dragged for polling errors that were consistent across every poll seemingly?

There might be more to Georgia:

Good Thursday morning!

As of 7:30 a.m., about 18,000 votes separate Trump and Biden. Today's absentee file isn't fully updated, so based on yesterday, there's still potentially 50k ballots left (before provisionals, cures, military/overseas).

Fulton has ~10k left. #gapol pic.twitter.com/c7350eC69A

— stephen fowler covers Georgia's election! (@stphnfwlr) November 5, 2020

The absentee file shows the total number of people with accepted mail-in and early in-person votes yesterday is ~50k higher than the total early votes reported in results.

There may be 25k left to *process* and closer to 50k left to *upload* into the results that we all use. https://t.co/awghsdljT4

— stephen fowler covers Georgia's election! (@stphnfwlr) November 5, 2020

So I’m trying to follow the latest but not sure what I’m missing... is there actually something to worry about with what’s up in the air regarding AZ/PA/GA? Or no?

An explanation for any PA questions:

I think one source of confusion in Pennsylvania is folks saying votes have been “counted.” Being counted and reported are completely different things. Counties are definitely sitting on numbers right now to release in bulk.

— Jessy Han (@hjessy_) November 5, 2020

it seems AZ is in the tank. it's down to Nevada or PA -- either one of them would secure biden's victory. and PA is starting to look like it will go biden. Georgia who knows.

biden can also afford to lose georgia, pa and nc. he just needs to hold onto nevada.

He should ask for a recount if he loses any of those states.

PA will go Biden, NV likely too, AZ and GA will be close. Don’t fret.

Good morning?

UPDATE FROM @ajc "Over 51,000 absentee ballots remained to be counted in Georgia on Thursday as Joe Biden pulled within about 18,500 votes of President Donald Trump."https://t.co/iS0sKflQzi

— Adam Goldman (@adamgoldmanNYT) November 5, 2020

Thanks so much for the clarification, when I wake up (in the UK) I check this thread then 538. But because ppl are mostly asleep in the US, the lack of juicy new updates in this little window of time is slightly jarring and I was wondering where we were at.

xxp appreciate this clarification, it’s a bit confusing over here

No worries! Anyway we clearly understand all your government traditions — the PM is selected by a duel between Black Rod and the King of Groats, yes?

Basically, yes

https://static.reuters.com/resources/r/?m=02&d=20191213&t=2&i=1463550508&r=LYNXMPEFBC0BR&w=800

Never swish mouthwash reading ILX. Ned, you owe me a new phone

XXP Story checks out :)

Actually our head of state is chosen by DNA.

Table, these are the risks you run.

Ah, such clarity

On Fox & Friends, Pam Bondi warns about "fake ballots" in Pennsylvania. When pressed on it, Bondi just says "there could be" some, and mentions a bunch of stuff that is not "fake ballots." pic.twitter.com/1G1Anlhciw

— Bobby Lewis (@revrrlewis) November 5, 2020

surely it will be very unfair not to declare for the guy who's had your back for the last few years, or at least been in charge of the knife in it

Re US/UK: This feels kinda like cricket, in that it's all about wheter the late team manages to catch up with the score set by the early team.

So at this point it's looking like Friday is when the Biden/Harris FUCK YOUR FEELINGS T-shirts go on sale, right?

We’ll get a lot more clarity on Nevada in a little over three hours from now, when Clark and Washoe counties (read: Las Vegas and Reno) release new totals.

(xp) Careful, you'll have Americans imagining they finally understand cricket.

Yeah Friday was when a lot of people were figuring PA would be fully settled.

Anyway, thing to watch for is if Nevada’s news today make it a clear Biden lead or victory, Fox and the AP would then call for the presidency. And if that’s the case I hope Trump’s watching Fox at that very moment.

Now that Trump is going to the courts to prevent MY ballot from being counted, I can call myself a victim of tyranny for the rest of my days!

Trump won Michigan by 0.23% in 2016. Biden is currently winning Michigan by more than 12 times that margin.

— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) November 5, 2020

Using multiplicative comparisons are kinda dumb for numbers that lie around zero. If I won by one vote and you now lead by 10000, your margin is 10000 times mine, while if I won by 200 (which is very close in actual numbers), the factor is "only" 50.