GET OUT: US politics November 2020

Georgia seems like it's going to be very close

going to be interesting to see what happens w the community when the big boy isn't at the helm taking down the Deep State pedos

OTOH, re Arizona:

Tonight's vote dump in Maricopa was Trump+18, which confirms that the state's going to get a lot tighter. It's not very easy to say whether that's enough for Trump or not, but I'd think it's more than enough to preclude an Arizona call tonight

— Nate Cohn (@Nate_Cohn) November 5, 2020

It's hard to game out exactly where we're heading in Arizona. It both depends on how many ballots are left and what kind of ballots, and neither is exactly clear. The most important takeaway here: Pennsylvania wrapping up its count is the path to a quick call

— Nate Cohn (@Nate_Cohn) November 5, 2020

I thought we weren't getting a final PA count until Friday.

Another 1,800 or so votes counted in GA, of which Biden wins 71%. He's tracking just above where needs to be in the remaining votes to win narrowly.

— Tom Bonier (@tbonier) November 5, 2020

Dems seem to be pretty confident that PA is gonna wind up 80k or so in Biden's favor, so none of this will likely matter

really hard to tell with AZ right now, b/c there are also still outstanding votes in Pima (a heavy Dem county), though I don't know how much (I've heard 40k and 90k). also some amount in rural AZ.

This is really hard for me to handle you guys

same

Like why is Biden not going to come up 5K short in AZ and GA and then PA gets halted somehow

explain to me why that's an implausible outcome right now

also worth mentioning that the 59% rate here may not stay consistent the whole way since it's unclear what subset of votes these are

that said I'm reading up on what's going on in PA, if the remaining votes go Biden at a rate of 2:1 he's gonna win by like 150k. there's good reason to believe they'll track even above that.

I know there's a containment thread for this but I cannot be contained

uh I don't think you can just halt the count in PA

Biden's not at 100% to win right now but minus shenanigans I'd say he's at like....over 98%

eephus:

Biden has won the last 600k ballots counted in Pennsylvania by 40 points, which is much bigger than the 22-point margin he needs the rest of the way out. https://t.co/U39Fdyumub

— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) November 5, 2020

Thank you guys

also:

Correction: Biden's won those ballots by ~50 points, not 40.

— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) November 5, 2020

There's no minus shenanigans about it; there will be attempted shenanigans. Not that it'll help.

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2020/11/04/us/election-results#georgia-election-lawsuit

Signaling a willingness to litigate even the most minute of possible voting discrepancies, President Trump’s campaign filed suit in Georgia’s Chatham County on Wednesday, claiming that a Republican poll watcher there “witnessed 53 late absentee ballots illegally added to a stack of on-time absentee ballots.”

The lawsuit, filed in Chatham County Superior Court on behalf of the Georgia Republican Party and President Trump’s campaign, came as the race in Georgia had tightened significantly. It raised the possibility that some absentee ballots had been improperly handled and received after Tuesday’s 7 p.m. deadline. Chatham County, in coastal southeast Georgia, includes the city of Savannah.

This is getting awfully pathetic.

OK, after a FiveThirtyEight quantitative edit from @NateSilver538, I must amend this: Given the 418,000 ballots remaining, a 59-41 split is *exactly* what Trump needs. But 46,000 of those ballots are from Pima, which is bluer than Maricopa. https://t.co/zDmlrQv41v

— Nathaniel Rakich (@baseballot) November 5, 2020

so Trump's getting *exactly* the amount he needs in Maricopa to make it close, but with the votes in Pima he'll probably need 60-62%

I guess that's what the tweet says

lol, how tf did they even know that the 53 were "late"? Did they watch the mailman deliver them? xp

CNN’s Dana Bash says a source tells her Trump is feeling “down” and “starting to see this slip away”

— Michael Crowley (@michaelcrowley) November 5, 2020

Don't tell. SHOW!!!!

Yeah pretty much at this point I'm reading as Biden cruises in PA, wins if a bit gingerly in AZ, could well do the same in GA and almost certainly holds NV, though Ralston's freely admitting that without exact numbers to work with they've had to guess. He did post this, though:

Check this thread from a data maven who has been closely following NV and has been analyzing the early/mail totals. I want to urge caution here -- I put out that same 70K number and so did @Andy_Bloch. If those mail ballots are what Doc S. says they are, bad news for Trump. https://t.co/Mk2Cmryy7y

— Jon Ralston (@RalstonReports) November 5, 2020

But the point is, everything is showing PA is a comfortable lock, and that is enough.

I won't be comfortable until it's done.

You shouldn't be! But you shouldn't fret too much either.

trump expanding (however slightly) his reach with almost every demo except white men is wild as hell to me.

they ran a candidate against him whose only selling point was "I am also an old white man, like my opponent"

WA GOP governor candidate Loren Culp just said he was let go as police chief of Republic.

He said Republic City Council voted a few days ago to defund the one-person police dept (him).

"Not even a letter of thank you," says Culp

lol I cursed him by drawing dongs on his campaign posters' foreheads

(actually him taking time off to run for Gov proved to the city council that policing was in fact improved by defunding the police dept by 100%)

I want Trump to lose all remaining states in agonizing slow motion.

increasingly isolated

This mail-in ballot situation he created for himself is actually the perfect twist of the knife.

Don't tell. SHOW!!!!

irl haw

Another advantage here is that it appears as in Michigan Biden's totals will hit 6 digits in PA, meaning Wisconsin was the closest -- but again, at 20,000, in a state where recounts have been regularly done that have only shifted things in the low hundreds, that'll be good enough.

This whole election is like that extended peeing scene at the start of Austin Powers.

Irl lol

A stream we can all appreciate

Major Fulton County, Georgia update 10:05 PM EST
23,066 newly-counted ballots
Trump: 4,708
Biden: 18,358
79.5% to Biden when he needs to win 68% of outstanding votes outstanding to tie the president.

— Brendan Keefe (@BrendanKeefe) November 5, 2020

This also is helpful https://www.propublica.org/article/if-trump-tries-to-sue-his-way-to-election-victory-heres-what-happens

I know it's premature to get depressed about this when victory isn't declared yet, but this is the coming hangover after he probably wins, describing exactly what I was afraid of:
https://theweek.com/articles/947825/biden-presidency-might-essentially-over-before-begin

The way I'm seeing it, it's going to be an exact mirror of the 306-232 loss last time. (Admittedly dependent on both Georgia and Arizona emerging for Biden.)

I give two shits if Biden's presidency is over when all I care about is Trump's presidency being over tbqfh.

^^^

Ok, enjoy having no meaningful legislation pass, no judicial nominees getting confirmed, and watching another supreme court seat sit empty with a 6-2 conservative court

https://jacobinmag.com/2020/11/takeaways-election-night-trump-biden-democrats

^ some analysis of exit polls

I think the more productive way to think about it is as a chance to define the Democratic agenda, if they can agree enough on what that is. Do like the GOP House did when the Dems held the Senate, pass a ton of bills that you know won't pass but will force the Republicans to refuse to act on popular legislation, just keep going back at them over and over. Stimulus, healthcare, climate bills, minimum wage, student loan forgiveness, bam bam bam. I know Pelosi has already been doing this to some extent, but with the White House on board it would be significantly amplified. Think of it as a two- or four-year campaign, essentially, with the goal being to take the Senate and win the presidency again in '24.

xp -- my memory is that early analysis of exit polls in 2016 was useless and a lot of it wound up walked back. I would think even moreso this year with so many mail-ins?

Why the hell are people protesting outside the elections department in Phoenix. They know Biden’s ahead right?

xp Seems like polling needs to get some better data scientists involved.