GET OUT: US politics November 2020

not counting Doug Jones, who was guaranteed a loss, at least three Senate races come down to things pretty explainable: Susan Collins for the ACB confirmation, John Cornyn for Beto being an overambitious dumbass, Thom Tillis for Cal Cunningham being a horny dumbass

it's also a waste of energy to argue that Bernie wouldn't have done better, or if Biden had taken stronger stands on various issues like police reform, universal health care, student debt cancellation, etc.

sorry I didn't keep up last night (was too afraid to read, just kept checking to see if this thread or Trump's gonna win was on top) ...

... but, we're still paying attention to Nate Silver?

Those things are right for their own sake, not for a strategic reason.

At least you aren't making the argument that people saying defund the police should get fucked because they hurt Biden's chances.

― healthy cocaine off perfect butts (the table is the table), Wednesday, November 4, 2020 6:31 PM (one minute ago) bookmarkflaglink

People saying defund the police should advocate for what they believe in. But it's still good to take stock of the popularity or unpopularity of a position, and defund the police remains very unpopular. Even people who support it should be aware of that imo.

Xp

while the turnout was a record high, there were still a significant amount of non-voters

Bernie would have done better with Latino voters outside of southern Florida.

I just mean that there's no rhetorical value whatsoever to "Bernie would have won more." No one is going to listen to that when they picked a winner. It's not going to convince anyone to move the party a hair left. Whereas "left candidate delivered key votes for democrat in swing state" has some traction.

Good point

fuck bipartisanship. I'll be bipartisan in that I don't want to bring harm to Republican civiilans I walk by on the street, spit on them, or make their lives worse, y'know. but I sure as hell want to make Republican politicians' lives worse every day of every fucking year.

Seriously.

re: PA

I don't make predictions, but if the absentee votes continue to break for Biden by the margins they have so far--and as we have every reason to expect--then Biden would win by around 2 points https://t.co/dXuDEYU4Ck

— Nate Cohn (@Nate_Cohn) November 4, 2020

xpost Even my kids are like, wtf is up with those assholes?

Traction with who, though? No one with power in the Democratic Party machine is going to give half a fuck that Tlaib did them a solid.

still, that ship has sailed, so I feel like the righteous things to do are: focus on strengthening and developing grass roots progressive movements and candidates at the local and state levels, and work towards greater progressive solidarity in congress to agitate the Democratic party away from the vichyssoise.

hey man alive!

I'm not saying Bernie OR LIZ (#lizlad) woulda done better, I'm saying looking at the result of Biden's campaign does not give us good crystal balling that proves a better campaign BY EITHER WARREN OR SANDERS, WHO WOULD HAVE CAMPAIGNED DIFFERENTLY FROM EACH OTHER* would definitely have done worse

NB that I noted that "defund the police" only exists in a non-electoral context, to point out that Sanpaku is - as in many circumstances - making an argument that does not have any internal connective tissue at all. (I don't think Biden would have done better campaigning on "defund the police," I do think it's dogshit that he campaigned on "increase de fund and shoot the protestors," but "defund" wasn't part of the election imo.)

* much though my ideal ticket would have had them in collaboration

Ilhan Omar delivered 100k more votes for Dems in her/my district than four years ago. In 2016, Minnesota took about two days to call for Hillary Clinton - this year, it took about two hours. The entire Squad has delivered for the Biden campaign despite being to his left or initially for Sanders, so he owes them quite a lot.

Ilhan Omar delivered 100k more votes for Dems in her/my district than four years ago.

fuck yeah

xp milo z -- your homeboy LBJ was the king of horsetrading and working from who owed who -- it's funny you of all people would make that complaint about the Dems

The Squad is going to be the backbone of the democratic party for the rest of our lifetime.

not to be a jerk, just to make the "you are from Texas" note -- idk maybe shit doesn't work like that anymore, but Biden def seems like he does the old school back-scratching thing

happy for you, suzy, that you get to feel so good about your rep as a non-resident voter. especially compared to my experience!

Horsetrading implies a potential give and take.

Like... what are Minnesota Democrats going to do if Omar isn't 'repaid'? Not vote for Biden or Harris in 2024? That's the thing with "vote blue no matter who" - you have no horse trading leverage.

The staggering losses in Florida have colored my views, as you might understand, but...it's looking like Biden may exceed 270 and the popular vote is just, well, formidable.

Pelosi endorsed Ed Markey's primary challenger because he dared to work with the Squad. Rashida Tlaib had to fend off a machine primary challenger.

It’s less that they will “give” Tlaib anything to thank her as that they may need to back off from targeting left candidates in clearly left leaning areas, especially in swing states.

The entire Squad has delivered for the Biden campaign despite being to his left or initially for Sanders, so he owes them quite a lot.

Blaming the squad and Bernie left for Biden not doing better doesn't look as tenable this time around?

The Squad is going to be the backbone of the democratic party for the rest of our lifetime.

that would be a great idea, meaning they won't do it

I am also proud that MN went for Biden in greater numbers than Clinton’s in 2016, despite the entire GOP machine spending almost six months there trying to make the election about George Floyd.

Or maybe the whole left vs centrist narrative shouldn't even exist when really some sort of mix of both is looking to hand Biden a decisive win.

The “270 gecs” comment on the autotuned clip upthread nails it.

MN and AZ have been bright spots in this election

It’s less that they will “give” Tlaib anything to thank her as that they may need to back off from targeting left candidates in clearly left leaning areas, especially in swing states.

🤞

Milo, it could mean things like roles on committees and other benefits accorded reps with seniority. Omar is already a whip ffs, she gets shit done.

one thing I am curious about is how reapportionment will affect things

hope you’re right but I don’t see a universe where the party doesn’t go all-out trying to kneecap them in 2 years

― A-B-C. A-Always, B-Be, C-Chooglin (will), Wednesday, November 4, 2020 6:54 PM (four minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink

they won't be able to.

Loyalty benefits career advancement is a different argument from loyalty buys policy changes.

wait, never mind, that already happened

xp - you don't see any connection between career advancement and policy changes?

Perhaps future money will say "In Squad We Trust."

Anyway catching up from earlier

no one has officially called the Juggalos, fans of the Insane Clown Posse

I think someone grabbed 'em by the posse

hope you’re right but I don’t see a universe where the party doesn’t go all-out trying to kneecap them in 2 years

they won't be able to.

tlaib and omar won biden a lot of votes by knocking on doors during a pandemic. said it before upthread, but it seems like the biden campaign's lack of in-person gotv, while defensible from a public health perspective, caused serious problems.

Nate Silver is faster at dividing numbers by other numbers than I am and has easier access to the necessary numbers to divide by other numbers

anyway all eyes on the Congressional Progressive Caucus in January. I think Jayapal is just a hair too decorous to outright challenge Pelosi for the speakership, which may be the main thing I fault her for

seems like the biden campaign's lack of in-person gotv, while defensible from a public health perspective, caused serious problems.

sorta reassuring tbh, it would be bleak if we got all possible Dem votes and this was still the outcome

you don't see any connection between career advancement and policy changes?

Not particularly. Omar or AOC’s career advancement has no impact on the 150 reps taking medical industry money to oppose any steps toward nationalized healthcare.

The Squad’s political goals are not compatible with those of the Democratic center. You don’t resolve that with loyalty.

in a very slightly better world the Republican party would shed the Christofascists and adopt the Democratic center because the Christofascists would have ceased to be a viable base