GET OUT: US politics November 2020

Wasserman's takeaways from the House results:

-"Democrats suffered a catastrophic erosion in Hispanic support. The races where Republicans most vastly outperformed everyone's priors were heavily Hispanic districts that swung enormously to Trump."

- "It was a stellar night for Republican women. ... After last night, Republicans are on track to more than double their current count of 13 women."

I have had my head in the same all day. On purpose. Is NV a done deal?

xxxp It's cool, incumbents now get to use the company jet, the rose garden, and the justice dept

Good to see we’re already here...

please tell me the correct response to have to this! please do! scolding absolutely works to change people's feelings, truly

Prop 22 is horribly demoralizing too

― treeship., Wednesday, November 4, 2020 10:40 AM (four minutes ago)

thanks for your concern, Mr. non-resident of California ...

erosion of labor rights anywhere should be concerning to everyone

also they clearly want it enacted across the land so...

Right?

You've got the electoral college adding up to 534 instead of 538. It's the Trump side you've got wrong, I think: should add up to 268.

prop 22 passing is definitely atrocious

you got it right YMP other than the part Alba mentioned.

prop 22 scares me personally and i am in no danger of ever being a gig employee or living in CA

so, as a Californian who has been bombarded with prop 22 corporate mailers and ads, is the right way to respond to say, "thank you for your sympathy?" As opposed to "Fuck your stupid state"?

do we have to sweat the house? i know the majority is narrowing

i think "yeah, it sucks" xp

* as opposed to feeling like everyone is saying "Fuck your stupid state" and "I feel your pain" in a slightly smarmy way, which is my instinctual response because while it is a scary precedent that is likely to affect the rest of the country at some point, it is affecting California now.

well no my ire is directed towards the VC-fueled sharecropping conglomerates that backed the measure in order to string their grift along a little longer

well no my ire is directed towards the VC-fueled sharecropping conglomerates that backed the measure in order to string their grift along a little longer

awww <3 that is the sweetest thing to say. I agree.

No one is saying fuck your stupid state.

I'm also fragile about this because these companies also poured money into local City Council races -- funding competitors to council people that I have actually experienced doing good things for their communities.

do we have to sweat the house? i know the majority is narrowing

― la table sur la table (voodoo chili), Wednesday, November 4, 2020 12:53 PM (three minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink

AFAICT, there will still be a Dem majority, but the expectation is that Dems would pick up seats, and it looks like they will lose a handful.

CNN calling WI

the House performance was abysmal but they'll still retain it

If anything has bummed me out, it's South Florida losing its two (!) seats.

Honestly, I am probably projecting, because I'm definitely thinking "Fuck my stupid state" for voting for Prop 22 such that it wasn't even close.

whereas I'd prepared for counting to stretch another 24-72 hours.

I am not going to be one of those people saying Bernie would have definitely won (because who knows), but holy fuck would I have loved a chance to see him or someone similarly unambiguous in their rhetoric, record and priorities give it a fuckin shot in the general

I am so with you on this Simon. And yet Dem primary voters preferred the milquetoast.

Water... bridge.

Outlook on American politics for the remainder of my natural life:

https://64.media.tumblr.com/tumblr_lnucs541OE1qielgeo1_500.gif

apologies if I upset anyone earlier

No one on this thread upsets me (or anyone else on this thread) more than the will of 70 million Americans.

truth bomb

katherine, you are keeping it real and I totally appreciate that and empathize

seconded

I mean, this is obviously a simplified take that can and will get picked apart in the coming weeks and months, but I think we need to figure out how to address the 66 million single issue voters for which that single issue is being able to be racist.

Trump campaign says it has filed a lawsuit in Michigan to “halt counting...” pic.twitter.com/i4qEhJ7ckA

— Jim Acosta (@Acosta) November 4, 2020

yeah, that's not gonna happen.

but i mean we'll gladly stop counting while Biden is ahead

here is my guess as to why everybody is comfortable picking Arizona:

"The Arizona Republic surveyed county recorders and estimates that 600,000 ballots remain to be counted in Arizona. A full 450,000 of those ballots are in Maricopa County (Phoenix) and break down as follows: 248,000 early ballots (which in Arizona includes both mail-in and in-person votes) that arrived on Monday or Tuesday, 160,000-180,000 mail-in ballots dropped off on Election Day and 29,000 provisional ballots. Maricopa expects to release two batches of results tonight: one at 9 p.m. Eastern and one sometime after 12:30 a.m. Eastern."

can't imagine the mail-in ballots will favor Republicans there.

the 66 million single issue voters for which that single issue is being able to be racist.

I don't think that's true for all 66 million of them ...

keep doubling down on that sweeping rhetoric though, bound to work wonders at some point

whose sweeping rhetoric are we talking about now?

Of course not, but I think we're going to continue to struggle in elections until we grapple with the likely fact that this group is much larger than we've been wanting to admit.

Messed up my tags, meant to quite sarahell and respond.

@sarahell I meant jon's, quoting is hard on the phone

having grown up around it, it's very easy to admit

Biden lead has shrunk by 10k or so in Michigan over the last hour, but it *should* be ok given that there must be at least another +60k gain to be had around Detroit (66% reporting) / Kalamazoo (80%).

I'll be asleep when AZ release their two chunks of polling data, so hopefully good news tomorrow.

like so many things this seems to be about intent vs. consequences. where one side is "that can't be true, there are not 66 million people who wake up in the morning and think "today I'm going to do some racism, starting with my daily recital of the 14 words," and the other side is "does it matter, when there are 66 million people who press the racism button, what those people had in their head?"

As pointed out several times over itt, we've got to move past the idea of "waiting for the racists to die off", because there are clearly more young ones stepping forward every day.

So my flippant post was to say, what are we going to do to combat this? I don't think ignoring them until they hopefully fade away in the next election is going to work either. I don't have the answer, but I think we have to plan for something beyond just wishing for a magical candidate on our side that will whittle that down.

I'm adjusting to a world potentially w/out Trump in our daily scrim. Imagine reverting to a norm when a Biden and a McConnell just gridlock happily ever after!

So my flippant post was to say, what are we going to do to combat this

I mean you could finally try the "lure some of the massive bloc of non-voters with substantive new ideas" approach leftists have been begging for for seemingly forever, but iirc whatever cycle it is is never the time for that

What are we going to do to combat this - planning to focus on local politics. SF voters just got rid of a ridiculous minimum police force number, so real reform is now possible there.