GET OUT: US politics November 2020

(which, I realize, also makes me a shithead)

trump is paying the $3 million to do a recount apparently

I would gladly pay you Tuesday wimpy.gif

and cirque du soleil filed for bankruptcy!

It’s because that question is very difficult. What do you make of a society that elevates a man who acts like a petulant child?

Xp

that was the theme of the last Cirque du Soleil show iirc

and got a bailout by the quebec govt despite laying off 95% of the workforce, fuck le cirque.

the more fundamental question is what do you make of a society whose unifying trait -- unifying as in true of more or less every political affiliation, just with different targets -- is contempt

Beat them.

xpost a destination for an atomic bomb

Really, it's as banal as that. Fight for candidates who will take no shit from monsters.

Alfred you are a writer. I know you want answers in addition to results.

Really, it's as banal as that. Fight for candidates who will take no shit from monsters.

― Patriotic Goiter (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Wednesday, November 4, 2020 6:29 PM (thirty-three seconds ago) bookmarkflaglink

yeah i mean it's that or die so

Everybody is going through a lot of shit right now so I don't want to be too judgey about how everybody deals with it.

Hence, "(other candidate) or (other message) or (other strategy) would have won handily" is an understandable human feeling, and if you feel like it's an important part of your coping strategy to say that right now, um, ok.

However, "(other candidate) would have won handily" seems to be the opposite of helpful to some folks. And it's okay for those folks to say that as well.

No one knows a counterfactual.

A young man on 9th avenue, where I am sitting outside and drinking, is ranting about “millennials” having betrayed gen z. I feel old.

I just have a hard time looking at the results we have at hand right now and imagining how anyone could say with any certainty that Dem Candidate X would have done significantly better.

The thing is trump has defined the terms of the debate so he inherently seems stronger than any opponent. And america likes a “winner”

When obama ran the election was about obama. When biden ran it was about trump, ditto when hillary ran.

I can say with confidence that Buttigieg would have done worse.

Well, yeah.

When trump declared his candidacy in 2015 people laughed but he built a coalition. Dems need to do that. Bernie himself didn’t win but he had the right idea.

Just wanted to diss Pete.

ready for the geezers running the dem party to shuffle off their coil so we can have leaders who aren't scared of their own shadow

― la table sur la table (voodoo chili), Wednesday, November 4, 2020 12:54 PM (thirty-one minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink

sure, like madison cawthorn

― like, I’m eating an elephant head (katherine), Wednesday, November 4, 2020 12:56 PM (twenty-nine minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink

when will people learn that there are republicans under the age of 40 too

― like, I’m eating an elephant head (katherine), Wednesday, November 4, 2020 12:56 PM (twenty-nine minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink

was specifically talking about democrats here, but go off

So two things:

1) Biden is well on his way to flipping MI & WI (in addition to AZ & #NE02) and is doing well enough in PA's completed counties to be on track to win there
2) Polls (esp. at district-level) have rarely led us more astray & it's going to take a long time to unpack

— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) November 4, 2020

When a candidate is an incumbent, it’s 100% normal the election is about him, especially when he horribly mishandle a pandemic.

(from this morning but....hey we like the Wass)

last incumbent to lose was George Ho Whore Bush

In other bleak news

Lyft just sent around a celebration email for prop 22, and they made the gig company intent clear. They want this sub-employee category legalized federally. pic.twitter.com/3LDQrExhex

— Sam Harnett (@SamWHarnett) November 4, 2020

I suspect the real question isn't "what did Democrats do wrong?" but "why is the American populace so full of shitheads?"

― real muthaphuckkin jeez (crüt),

Yes this. It's the hard truth. Easier to bemoan Dem leadership and candidates, easier to fantasize there's some magical combination of words, images etc that will attract more voters to them, easier to think they can change than millions of voters can.

was specifically talking about democrats here, but go off

― la table sur la table (voodoo chili), Wednesday, November 4, 2020 1:36 PM (two minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink

plenty of younger centrists, too

the only thing I'm confident of is that "run a milquetoast centrist with no discernible vision for America besides 'look at this asshole'"* is not a reliable route to resounding victory

*this is where someone tells me Biden did have a vision, but if it was compellingly articulated with any inspiring rhetoric I must have missed it, and in any case, a guy with five decades' experience in US government and a record as uh not exactly a progressive champion inherently lacks credibility as an agent of meaningful change

I am not going to be one of those people saying Bernie would have definitely won (because who knows), but holy fuck would I have loved a chance to see him or someone similarly unambiguous in their rhetoric, record and priorities give it a fuckin shot in the general

Prop 22 is horribly demoralizing too

We need solidarity among the workers of this nation

Simon otm

Alfred you are a writer. I know you want answers in addition to results.

― treeship., Wednesday, November 4, 2020

Go on.

BREAKING: Democrat Jared Golden wins reelection to U.S. House in Maine's 2nd Congressional District. #APracecall at 1:31 p.m. EST. #Election2020 #MEelection https://t.co/lGfinjTqT4

— AP Politics (@AP_Politics) November 4, 2020

This was +4 to Biden in polling

the complicating factor with any leftist running of course would be the combo of external (voter attitudes) and internal (ratfucking) risk - that's what really makes any counterfactual speculation about running a leftist Dem extra worthless

Good to see we’re already here...

because they can't blame russia, socialists, or latinos, i predict that liberals will blame "society" for biden's performance

— kill 💀 tim 💀 faust (@crulge) November 4, 2020

Sorry if repeating anything anyone has said, but incumbency advantage matters here too right? Last time Trump was able to pull the anti-establishment bit but you still had people saying they were #NeverTrump, he shouldn’t be normalised etc. Four years on, that’s effectively happened for most people, so added to the incumbency advantage it does explain part of why his numbers have been strong.

okay anyway just please check my math here

If we take the current situation as indicated by the WaPo map, and assign the leaning states the color they are currently shaded:

Biden 227
+ NV 6
+ AZ 11
+ WI 10
+ MI 16

227 + 43 = 270, congratulations Mr. Biden.

Trump 213
+ PA 20
+ NC 15
+ GA 16

213 + 51 = 264, sorry, Mr. Trump, you're fired.

And if ANYTHING goes wrong for Trump in those three states (for example, the radical step of counting all legitimate votes), he's fired. Plus he needs to pick off one of the currently light-blue states.

Right?

Wasserman's takeaways from the House results:

-"Democrats suffered a catastrophic erosion in Hispanic support. The races where Republicans most vastly outperformed everyone's priors were heavily Hispanic districts that swung enormously to Trump."

- "It was a stellar night for Republican women. ... After last night, Republicans are on track to more than double their current count of 13 women."

I have had my head in the same all day. On purpose. Is NV a done deal?

xxxp It's cool, incumbents now get to use the company jet, the rose garden, and the justice dept

Good to see we’re already here...

please tell me the correct response to have to this! please do! scolding absolutely works to change people's feelings, truly

Prop 22 is horribly demoralizing too

― treeship., Wednesday, November 4, 2020 10:40 AM (four minutes ago)

thanks for your concern, Mr. non-resident of California ...

erosion of labor rights anywhere should be concerning to everyone

also they clearly want it enacted across the land so...

Right?

You've got the electoral college adding up to 534 instead of 538. It's the Trump side you've got wrong, I think: should add up to 268.

prop 22 passing is definitely atrocious

you got it right YMP other than the part Alba mentioned.