GET OUT: US politics November 2020

Trump just won the highest share of non-white support of any Republican in 60 years. The Democratic Party is an absolute joke.

— Gravel Institute (@GravelInstitute) November 4, 2020

would love someone to explain why exactly this is

one thing's for sure, we're going to hear a whole lot of bad and wrong answers over the next forever

there's a tweet thread about it posted a few minutes ago

the liberal assumption that "minority" or "POC" = will vote on "woke" issues is dangerous and Trump clearly took advantage of that misunderstanding

people at the bottom love cruelty just as much as people at the top

the thread unperson posted upthrrad explains a lot, really good read

also The Wilderness podcast (Crooked Media/Jon Favreau) came to some similar conclusions

instead of these dumb tweet hot takes by Gravel polling, we could actually seriously ask the question and try to learn over the next 4 years. we've only ever paid lip service to it, which is how we get comments like Biden's "If you don't vote for me, you're not Black!".

the nice thing is these are conversations that are good and we can learn from if we ask the right questions and actively listen, rather than focusing our efforts on trying to appease racist coal voters after 2016.

indeed, I think Dems' reputation for canvassing a ton in minority communities and then doing nothing for them is biting them pretty hard

people at the bottom love cruelty just as much as people at the top

― Give me a Chad Smith-type feel (map),

^^ THIS. My Cuban parents, raised with this up-from-the-bootstraps shit, have absorbed the self-absorption but fortunately not the cruelty.

xpost that's been the Dem stereotype for a non-negligible amount of time, and while some of it is Republicans doing their Pee Wee Herman impression, there's a lot of truth to it.

I still can't rectify how that would lead to a Republican vote of all things, considering they've paid less than lip service to minority communities, but...idk

do we need to post the taco bowl tweet again?

New batch of votes in Georgia, Trump's lead under 100,000 votes now.

Other Republicans haven't cracked it, but Trump's whole schtick is that he's not a republican, not a politician, etc. He's a populist and he talks a good populist talk. Something needs to be on offer other than representation and "not [ openly ] racist." I don't fear anything close to a majority of black voters ever flipping GOP, it's just that Trump peeled off enough votes to matter in key places.

people at the bottom love cruelty just as much as people at the top

What is that Gravel Institute tweet based on exactly?

the liberal assumption that "minority" or "POC" = will vote on "woke" issues is dangerous and Trump clearly took advantage of that misunderstanding

i wouldn't characterize it as a "liberal" assumption, as there are plenty of liberals in states with large "minority" populations that are well aware of how segments of those populations vote. What was the term from the notorious bottle opener thread, "crazy pills"? Listening to Judy what's-her-name on PBS with a straight face talking about Latino voters as one monolithic group was just like -- wtf, where are you even from? Major respect to the correspondent from Minnesota who kept politely correcting her about this.

RONALDINHO BOTTLE OPENER TO THREAD

I'm bored with Wisconsin imminence now.

It's an IMMINENCE FRONT!

An IMMINENCE FRONT!

It's a PUT-ON!

not going to speculate about Bernie here but he talks in concrete policy idea that will directly help people and I think that is something the Dems need to adopt. not "we're going to look into a $15 minimum wage" and "we'll do something about the courts" or "my healthcare plan will have a public option if you qualify" or whatever. take concrete positions on issues that the majority of Americans support. if they're gonna learn anything from Trump it's that taking a risky policy position ain't gonna make you unelectable. it is so goddamn frustrating to see a Republican win on building a literal wall between us an Mexico while we can't get a Democrat nominee to commit to universal health care.

people will latch onto anything they find reassuring, even if -- as with "only white people would logically ever vote Republican" -- it's bullshit. (and then they will endlessly scold people who point out the bullshit as pessimistic.)

people at the bottom love cruelty just as much as people at the top

― Give me a Chad Smith-type feel (map)

I think because my brain hurts I'm going to make this my distillation for the day

bernie would have won bigger than biden. look sorry i'm contractually obligated to post that at some point, might as well get it over with.

(which is why the "don't feel bad, you're just playing into trump's hands!" narrative is so exhausting. at what point is one allowed to look at a bad situation and call it bad? when it acceptable to have a reasonable reaction to bad news?)

they gotta figure it out quick or they're liable to get shellacked in 2022. assuming Biden does win, this is still an insanely good result for the GOP, given where things looked like they were headed in 2018. if you offered any GOP pol "keep the Senate, gain a little in the house, get a 6-3 SC majority, and lose the presidency to Joe Biden" back then they'd all have taken it in an instant.

ready for the geezers running the dem party to shuffle off their coil so we can have leaders who aren't scared of their own shadow

sure, like madison cawthorn

when will people learn that there are republicans under the age of 40 too

These freaks are immortal

imagine being Nate Silver for the next week, i imagine if he's seen in public, people will pelt him with cauliflower

(even though he....technically wasn't 'wrong'?)

and people will vote for them, even if they look exactly like the sociopathic date rapist fratboy from all the tv shows.

When did we last see roger adultery?

at a proud boys rally maybe?

I honestly have no idea if Bernie would have won, or if he would have won bigger, but I think the principle that we should be offering people something besides "not as racist as them" is pretty clear

(even though he....technically wasn't 'wrong'?)

That's the great thing about being a an election forecaster – unless you're so foolish as to actually call a race ahead of time, you can always just say "well 90% isn't 100%"

Nate Silver should make you pass a math test before you’re allowed to see the forecast

Only Nates are allowed to see them.

That's the great thing about being a an election forecaster – unless you're so foolish as to actually call a race ahead of time, you can always just say "well 90% isn't 100%"

― Alba, Wednesday, November 4, 2020 1:01 PM (one minute ago) bookmarkflaglink

This is what I meant upthread -- there is no way to run the same election 10 times, so any claims about odds are unverifiable.

we should be offering people something besides "not as racist as them"

strongly disagree that this is all Biden is campaigning on. he has a progressive agenda!

Can't remember who asked/brought it up, but this from NYT on recount:

Reid Epstein, in Madison, Wis. 8m ago

The margin needs to be less than 1 percent for a recount in Wisconsin. Trump will have to pay about $3 million for it unless the margin is less than one quarter of 1 percent.

This is what I meant upthread -- there is no way to run the same election 10 times, so any claims about odds are unverifiable.

I guess over a course of a forecasters career people can make their own minds up about their success rate, but there are so few of these big moments that that takes decades, if they're in the game that long.

Trump will have to pay about $3 million

That's that, then.

they gotta figure it out quick or they're liable to get shellacked in 2022. assuming Biden does win, this is still an insanely good result for the GOP, given where things looked like they were headed in 2018. if you offered any GOP pol "keep the Senate, gain a little in the house, get a 6-3 SC majority, and lose the presidency to Joe Biden" back then they'd all have taken it in an instant.

― frogbs, Wednesday, November 4, 2020 12:53 PM (eleven minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink

And that’s because they are a much more focused and tight group, the politicians and the constituency. Dems demographic is pointing the better days, but boy it’s seems like always more work than anticipated to unite this coalition.

Biden's lead up to almost 50,000 in Michigan

https://apnews.com/article/ap-explains-arizona-joe-biden-bb16f91b04456b2513f40436248eb62d

That's that, then.

He prepaid!

I don't know that this tells us anything we don't already know, but since I'm spending my day number-crunching for a local analysis story: In my quite-red county in a quite-red state, Trump's vote share slipped slightly from 58 percent in 2016 to 56 percent in 2020. Not a huge deal, but what's more telling to me is that it was across the board — he underperformed his 2016 percentages in 69 out of 89 precincts, including most of the precincts he won, and only did better than 2016 in 8 precincts. And this is a county with a ton of MAGA hats and Trump flag truck parades and so forth.

And there were 7 precincts where he did sufficiently worse for the precinct to flip from Trump to Biden, all inner-ring suburbs. There were zero precincts that flipped from Dem to Trump.

strongly disagree that this is all Biden is campaigning on. he has a progressive agenda!

― real muthaphuckkin jeez (crüt), Wednesday, November 4, 2020 1:04 PM (two minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink

So does every democratic candidate, somewhere on their website. The question is how is that message actually getting through to people.

How many times do the unlikely scenarios in your analysis have to occur before you acknowledge that your analysis is fundamentally flawed, or your data is bad, or there is something you are not accounting for?

You should ask Silver himself.