GET OUT: US politics November 2020

Here's a newspaper that disgraced itself last night. And since it's the print edition, no way to correct or take it back. To title your next-day coverage with a false claim rather than a true fact is quite the spectacle, @ajc. https://t.co/T2Ofjoi3Ed

— Jay Rosen (@jayrosen_nyu) November 4, 2020

Ok lol at that comic xp

Still pretty worried about Arizona. They already reported all of their absentee votes (unlike some other states that are counting and reporting them last), which favored Biden, and the votes remaining to be reported are largely in Maricopa county which went to Trump in 2016. They definitely shouldn't have called it so early.

Also NV, Biden's only 8k up with 86% reporting! That's basically a tie, not an edge.

A pollster friend says tens of thousands of Clark County ballots still need counting.

most of the remaining ballots in NV should be in dem-friendly places, but they can't really call it yet as they're still allowing ballots to come in and aren't announcing a further update til Thursday.

Maricopa seems to be going Biden this time around.

two networks have called Arizona, I'm still comfy with it.

as Alfred said, Clark County is only 72% reporting and Biden has a 7% lead there

(NV)

Yeah here's the current state of play via Ralston (thread):

I am going to get a count of outstanding ballots in a bit, I hope. But here's what I know:

This election flipped in Clark County because of mail balloting, which Dems have dominated more than 2 to 1. Rs did well in in-person voting, which is why last update cut Biden's lead.

— Jon Ralston (@RalstonReports) November 4, 2020

20,000 votes, in WI.

The last NYT/Siena College poll (an A+ rated pollster) for WI had biden up 52% to 41%, and the 538 averages were biden 53.7 to trump 45.4%.

i REALLY have to remember not to pay as much attention to polls next time around.

Re Arizona - does it make a difference that the votes we can see now are on the day votes and the ones waiting to be counted are dropbox votes (see clip above). Biden is over 150k up on Clinton’s total in 16, she lost the country by 40k.

ty for that Ralston thread Ned

Yer welcome -- always just go straight to him for anything Nevada, simple as that.

Also, in re Arizona -- saw a tweet earlier indicating that Fox/AP, which have called the state, use a different system than the other key media election outlets. As Silver said the AP's callings are usually pretty cautious, combined with the Fox team doubling down this morning, I'd say it looks solid for now, but of course, would be nice to get the final word.

I still remember the 1984 election (yes I was a child, but I was a nerdy child), so I will probably be skeptical about these states until it's "official" ... speaking of celebrity presidents who bald-faced lie all the time and are horrible people

To overturn current deficits, Biden needs to win outstanding votes by around 63-37 in GA, and 67-33 in PA. This seems like a long shot. Feels like he could do with the insurance of a backup, if NV or AZ shrink away.

I’m actually surprised that FoxNews.com just has the election map as a headline and it’s fairly honest.

PA seems pretty likely. GA who knows but there's not much reason to care at this point

Fox plays a pretty straight bat when it comes to reporting election results.

I hadn't been over to foxnews.com in awhile... Fitting it still looks like 2004 over there.

I mainly hope my eventual death isn’t by starvation

― all cats are beautiful (silby), Wednesday, November 4, 2020 9:34 AM (twenty-six minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink

let's all get crushed by a tidal wave 2024

To overturn current deficits, Biden needs to win outstanding votes by around 63-37 in GA, and 67-33 in PA. This seems like a long shot.

Not given the balance of who was voting via mail and where -- Atlanta and Philadelphia. It may be close -- say more on the scale of where Wisconsin appears to be than where Michigan is ending up -- but it's quite feasible.

Meantime, Rick Hasen on Trump's chances re taking it to the Supreme Court:

https://electionlawblog.org/?p=118159

To overturn current deficits, Biden needs to win outstanding votes by around 63-37 in GA, and 67-33 in PA.

This would be far from unusual proportions for later-arriving mail and dropbox ballots in my experience in Seattle, the outstanding votes in GA and PA are in Atlanta and Philadelphia respectively, no?

feeling a lot of schadenfreude knowing that the MAGA crowd is experiencing right now the same thing we all did in 2016. the few I have left on my FB are tilting hard into conspiracy theories right now.

Nate Cohn outright said if Biden maintains his current lead on mail votes, he will win. Even with a slight proportional drop out.

Think he's winning like 3:1

"I’m disturbed by the loss of support in the suburbs,” Mitch McConnell says in a press conference. Interesting insight into the McConnell thought process. “We need to win back the suburbs, we need to do better with college-educated voters than [we’ve been] doing lately and we need to do better with women.” Shades of the 2012 autopsy report (in the sense of reflecting on voters the GOP needs to approach).

Xpost (that was for PA)

hmmm, i don't know mitch. you could also double-down on obstruction and racism, appeal to the core racists as much as possible, and do everything you can procedurally to make sure that biden accomplishes nothing, infuriating those who pay attention and sailing right over the heads of everyone else, which is most of the country

but yeah, republicans could also explore making an appeal to the suburbs

I don't know Mitch
But i know i hate him
That may be
All i need to know

feeling a lot of schadenfreude knowing that the MAGA crowd is experiencing right now the same thing we all did in 2016. the few I have left on my FB are tilting hard into conspiracy theories right now.

― frogbs, woensdag 4 november 2020 18:04 (four minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink

I hear you but this also annoys me; I'd much rather they'd experience the crushing sadness of an unexpected loss, instead of believing they lost because it was rigged or w/e.

The thing is that the suburbs are not the same suburbs that they used to be— in many places, they're not the bastion of tight-fisted old money WASPs who hate taxes and minorities any longer.

btw, if for some reason anyone happens to be thinking about republicans dying of covid-19 and what would happen with their replacement, this is a handy guide for all the state-by-state situations:

https://www.ncsl.org/research/elections-and-campaigns/vacancies-in-the-united-states-senate637302453.aspx

I hear you but this also annoys me; I'd much rather they'd experience the crushing sadness of an unexpected loss, instead of believing they lost because it was rigged or w/e.

definitely. 100% this. i wanted this election to be a stinging rebuke to the people who voted for trump. i don't really think the maga idiots are experiencing anything close to what everyone else felt during after the 2016 election. if anything i think they'd be resolved to double-down on what they're doing.

btw, if for some reason anyone happens to be thinking about republicans dying of covid-19

whoa, too spooky! I was just thinking about this!

like, i wanted certain former loved ones to wake up today and feel like SHIT, knowing that the rest of the country strongly disapproves of trump's bullshit. that is not what we got.

jesus christ I am so confused about PA right now from everything said here and on the web in general. Is PA looking really good? Or is it actually a doubtful long shot? Feel like I'm hearing both equally can someone summarize...

I hear you but this also annoys me; I'd much rather they'd experience the crushing sadness of an unexpected loss, instead of believing they lost because it was rigged or w/e.

As long as they're suffering that's fine with me.

I'm bored with Wisconsin imminence now.

That was poorly worded, apologies. I meant that demographic shifts in many suburbs mean that they will continue to trend Dem or even progressive, partly because the sorts of jobs needed to live in the suburbs are dominated by college-educated people who are at least outwardly horrified by racism and understand its structural characteristics.

And if the answer is "depends on AZ" ...well then I am equally confused about that situation too.

xpost to self

more generally I don't see how anyone looks at this election, or any election in their lifetime, and comes away still holding the belief that most people are fundamentally good

I'm bored with Wisconsin imminence now.

Oh, it's already called by NBC, I see. I was following AP.

also the suburbs are a lot less white now, though non-white does not equal a monolithic voting bloc

Sorry, I'm in a mini thread with myself but I shouldn't trust people on Twitter - NBC hasn't officially called WI either.

like, i wanted certain former loved ones to wake up today and feel

This is always a sucker’s game unfortunately, no matter what the feeling is

i'm a lifelong sucker, what can i say

relative closeness of this election just makes me think we should restore voting rights to the incarcerated

and also abolish prisons but you know one step at a time

jesus christ I am so confused about PA right now from everything said here and on the web in general. Is PA looking really good? Or is it actually a doubtful long shot? Feel like I'm hearing both equally can someone summarize...

― Evan, Wednesday, November 4, 2020 12:13 PM bookmarkflaglink

Nate Cohn wrote this (paywalled) about 45 minutes ago:

Pennsylvania. Looks can be deceiving. This one might seem out of reach for Mr. Biden, with the president holding an 11-point lead. But Mr. Trump is in quite a bit of danger here as well. The preponderance of the remaining vote is mail absentee, and Mr. Biden has won mail absentee votes in Pennsylvania by a margin of 78 percent to 21 percent. There are more than 1.4 million absentee votes left to count, according to the secretary of state, and that’s not including ballots that might arrive over the next few days. If Mr. Biden wins these 1.4 million votes by the same margin he’s been winning them so far — and it seems a safe bet — it would net him 800,000 votes, enough for him to pull ahead. That said, it’s hard to be too confident with this many ballots left to count. State officials expect the overwhelming majority of votes will be counted by Friday.

there is never a lightbulb moment. you think they’re going to wake up? “i want to be good! i want to be a good boy!” - never going to happen, not even in a 50-state sweep

more generally I don't see how anyone looks at this election, or any election in their lifetime, and comes away still holding the belief that most people are fundamentally good

― like, I’m eating an elephant head (katherine), Wednesday, November 4, 2020 12:15 PM bookmarkflaglink

I've never believed it! people are crap-filled crap