GET OUT: US politics November 2020

(btw I'm fully aware that this is very obvious to you but it is clear that Trump's star power is so much more important than his lawbreaking and multiple catastrophic failures)

(AZ becomes moot if he wins WI, MI, and PA though, i think.)

if Biden wins, at least executive orders get reversed, Barr is gone, and Trump and cronies are open to prosecution.

amen. preach it.

Biden’s just gonna blanket pardon them on day 1 to bring the country together

look i have little faith in Biden either but he is not going to pardon any of these clowns

Why is everyone down on the Senate? From what I can tell isn't it going to be 49-49 pending two GA runoffs?

― the colour out of space (is the place) (PBKR), Wednesday, November 4, 2020 9:59 AM (three minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink

It's currently 47-47 on the NYT map, with 6 uncalled races.

It seems likely that Susan Collins (R-ME), Dan Sullivan (R-AK), Thom Tillis (R-NC), and Gary Peters (D-MI) will win, which would make it 50-48.

Which would mean Dems would need to win both races in Georgia to tie. One of them is definitely going to a run-off, but it's possible that Perdue can still beat Ossoff outright with >50%.

I think in Maine there are still a ton of absentee ballots to count? I haven’t given up on that Senate seat yet.

xp Dems picked up CO and AZ but lost AL, so it might just be a +1 pickup when all is said and done.

Hope you're right, epi!

here's my election night story. i get home from work. i'm getting ready to do my post-work self-care routine which is do yoga while listening to high on fire. i fire up itunes and press play - nothing. i notice my external hard drive is making a very quiet beeping sound and the light isn't going on. i try plugging it into other ports, other computers - nothing. i knew that drive was going to fail and i ordered another external a few months ago but managed to not back anything up because you know i can barely get through the day some days. that is thousands of dollars of music and five years of collecting, folks. even if it's saveable that's going to put me out a couple hundo at least. more than i really have right now.

so i'm processing that and i log into ilx just when the florida shit is going down. have a panic attack. lay down. breathing fast and hard. can't really speak for a half hour or so. my boyfriend asks if there's anything he can do and i request a media black-out night, take-out and playing a board game. we do all of that except the board game, which is ticket to ride, and i don't want to stare at a map of the country. take a melatonin and two tylenol, drift off. my epic nightmare lasts for what seems like hours. rollercoaster ride between biden winning and then trump winning. lots of crying. i thing part of why this whole thing has been so unexpectedly triggering for me is four years ago i was in a really vulnerable place and this hit deep.

finally check things at 5:30 this morning, convince myself this is going to go to the supreme court like trump has been bragging all along, at which point he will be installed as dictator three months from now, take some cbd/thc gummies, go work out (last two things have been hugely helpful today), come home, hug my boyfriend and cry, and now get the news that biden will probably still win, AND encounter the vim and vigor of up-and-at-em ilxors. i'm about to make some coffee. so things are looking up.

<3

Pramila Jayapal and the Congressional Progressive Caucus really need to flex their muscle…do a leadership coup ideally. Become schismatic if they can’t.

Glad your mood is looking up, map, and good luck with the hard drive.

Also, sorry for confusing you with wins until recently.

indeed. those people are rock stars. the way AOC was able to so quickly shift the Overton window on a bunch of issues was really something.

i can't find any confirmation on the Arizona thing 538 just reported anywhere. both networks that called Arizona for Trump showed 84% reporting and never showed the 99% reporting they were talkinga bout, and a lot of the votes remaining are in Maricopa County, which Biden is carrying.

*shrug*

map i had similar insane anxiety attack dreams, but I was lucid enough to know I was dreaming, so I kept reminding myself that all the results I was seeing of the election in my dream were entirely fake.

It seems likely that Susan Collins (R-ME), Dan Sullivan (R-AK), Thom Tillis (R-NC), and Gary Peters (D-MI) will win, which would make it 50-48.

Which would mean Dems would need to win both races in Georgia to tie. One of them is definitely going to a run-off, but it's possible that Perdue can still beat Ossoff outright with >50%.

― jaymc, Wednesday, November 4, 2020 11:13 AM (fourteen minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink

I reiterate my previous point about cal cunningham. he could have just... not! it's so easy to just fucking not!

Was also looking at Arizona, found this interview with the Secretary of State, says around 250k for Maricopa by itself which Biden has a lead in, so?

Arizona Secretary of State Katie Hobbs joined @BroomheadShow and detailed where things stand for Arizona in the ongoing elections process. pic.twitter.com/Nk5O3xDHWk

— KTAR News 92.3 (@KTAR923) November 4, 2020

maybe the problem was his sexts were too wholesome xp

one of the big shifts in my perception of politics came when Arnold Schwarzenegger won as the governor of California (as a Republican no less!), because that was my first sign that the American electorate, even in progressive areas, treated politics with the seriousness as a teenager like myself

I did flash back on Schwarzenegger last night too, as sort of a formative reshuffling of my understanding of what politics in America actually are. I thought about it because I'm trying to remember if I felt more hopeless in that post-9/11 period or if I do now, and I think I've concluded I felt more hopeless then, and more existentially disillusioned now.

and Schwarznegger looks like a flaming lib now

I mainly hope my eventual death isn’t by starvation

This is how the presidential odds have moved since yesterday afternoon on the Smarkets betting market. With the way Wisconsin and Michigan look at present, 82% chance for Biden looks about right. But what a night, and what a week ahead: pic.twitter.com/NmcdQmcOxO

— John Authers (@johnauthers) November 4, 2020

the election betting market has been all over the shop!

that is thousands of dollars of music and five years of collecting, folks.

oh map. :-(

when i was around 24 yrs old someone broke into my apartment and stole all my records (i bought my first one at eleven years old). i would have preferred if they'd stolen the stereo instead (they left it untouched).

"wholesome" literally does not register with the kind of people who would ballot-split or stay home in response to that in the bible belt; cheating is cheating (unless you're a republican, then it's fine). the media/twitter have been very obtuse about that

Seems incredibly stupid? Like late counted ballots breaking Biden were in the cards and predicted.

Matt Walsh is such a cunt

xp to that graph

at this point the correct response to Trump and his advisers saying he won is "sure you did, sweetie"

when Arnold Schwarzenegger won as the governor of California (as a Republican no less!),

when he won the regular election or when he first became governor due to the recall of Dem Gov. Gray Davis? Yes, it was actually a "Recall Election" won by the star of the movie "Total Recall" ... the whole thing had a jokey quality to it. I remember a local journalist/editor nominating Gary Coleman.

Actually, I am finally realizing who Biden reminded me of ... former CA Governor Gray Davis.

You really only had to check with someone from Washington to know that late-arriving mail ballots would trend left. It’s an iron law of the universe here

Feels like Democrats get torpedoed so easily, whereas if a Republican does something bad it’s a point in their favor. The reality is that D politicians just have to hold themselves to a higher standard, because their voters do.

and every expert knew. and we knew. and Trump knew too, which is how he planned in advance to do what he is doing right now and should be ignored and laughed at.

xpost yeah exactly. it's infuriating

"Republicans are SUPPOSED to beat up whores in their hotels, but this Democratic senator is against fracking but he has a tube of petroleum jelly in his car!"

Regarding AZ: it’s good to see the Maricopa County Sheriff’s race looking solid for the D incumbent (Arpaio’s successor)

BREAKING Wisconsin Elections Commission Administrator says on @NBCNews: “All of the ballots have been counted.” Joe Biden has won Wisconsin by 20,697 votes.

— Chris D. Jackson (@ChrisDJackson) November 4, 2020

https://i.imgur.com/ELZERSS.jpg

if betting markets are saying 82% Biden then the "real odds" are likely much higher than that. Trump was a 3-1 favorite in those markets after they called Florida, which I know correlates with what we all felt, but obviously wasn't even close. I noticed some smart gamblers like Harlabob were trying to place huge wagers on Biden at that point.

sad I didn't get in at Biden when he inexplicably was at 35% at 3 am.

Here's a newspaper that disgraced itself last night. And since it's the print edition, no way to correct or take it back. To title your next-day coverage with a false claim rather than a true fact is quite the spectacle, @ajc. https://t.co/T2Ofjoi3Ed

— Jay Rosen (@jayrosen_nyu) November 4, 2020

Ok lol at that comic xp

Still pretty worried about Arizona. They already reported all of their absentee votes (unlike some other states that are counting and reporting them last), which favored Biden, and the votes remaining to be reported are largely in Maricopa county which went to Trump in 2016. They definitely shouldn't have called it so early.

Also NV, Biden's only 8k up with 86% reporting! That's basically a tie, not an edge.

A pollster friend says tens of thousands of Clark County ballots still need counting.

most of the remaining ballots in NV should be in dem-friendly places, but they can't really call it yet as they're still allowing ballots to come in and aren't announcing a further update til Thursday.

Maricopa seems to be going Biden this time around.

two networks have called Arizona, I'm still comfy with it.

as Alfred said, Clark County is only 72% reporting and Biden has a 7% lead there

(NV)

Yeah here's the current state of play via Ralston (thread):

I am going to get a count of outstanding ballots in a bit, I hope. But here's what I know:

This election flipped in Clark County because of mail balloting, which Dems have dominated more than 2 to 1. Rs did well in in-person voting, which is why last update cut Biden's lead.

— Jon Ralston (@RalstonReports) November 4, 2020

20,000 votes, in WI.

The last NYT/Siena College poll (an A+ rated pollster) for WI had biden up 52% to 41%, and the 538 averages were biden 53.7 to trump 45.4%.

i REALLY have to remember not to pay as much attention to polls next time around.

Re Arizona - does it make a difference that the votes we can see now are on the day votes and the ones waiting to be counted are dropbox votes (see clip above). Biden is over 150k up on Clinton’s total in 16, she lost the country by 40k.