GET OUT: US politics November 2020

Apologies, I'm trying very hard to keep out of this thread.

State Democratic Party chair

Green Bay and Kenosha results are in. Biden is now up in Wisconsin by roughly 20,600 votes. That number could wobble a bit, but there's no realistic path for Trump to pull ahead.

Biden has won more votes any prez candidate in WI history.

Folks: Joe Biden just won Wisconsin. https://t.co/xtg0hiSlW4

— Ben Wikler (@benwikler) November 4, 2020

I'm volunteering at a food pantry today. Some work is never done no matter who wins the White House.

It might be done one day if the Dems stop nominating right wing douchebags

It’s just the panic vote. Not enough to overcome the “enough of this shit” vote.

xxxp

So if I read my timeline right, your understanding of the state of American democracy depends on when/if you went to bed last night. I’m a three o clockist.

— James Poniewozik (@poniewozik) November 4, 2020

I went to bed after Biden’s speech but before the authoritarian attempt

xps damn, twitter slapped a warning on Wikler.

AP Decision Desk on North Carolina:

“Though Trump is correct that he held a 76,000-vote lead in the state early Wednesday, the race is too close to call and there are still about 200,000 mail-in ballots left to count. /1

— Emma Kinery (@EmmaKinery) November 4, 2020

I went to sleep after watching Trump’s speech and dreamt of red and blue percentage values

I went to sleep at, like, 9:30.

xps damn, twitter slapped a warning on Wikler.

Just being cautious, I don't think that represents any special knowledge on Twitter's part.

i dreamed I was Biden's ambassador and I was having sex with the vote counters of several states to get them to influence the vote.

the having sex part is how i knew it was a dream

xpost yeah it's an appropriate tag. a partisan call of Wisconsin that doesn't represent an official 'call'.

True Nor do "calls" by AP, Fox etc, though.

Yeah you can’t call Wisconsin yet but he’s right. The outstanding vote will not be Trump friendly.

So there's not a path to a Democratic Senate at this point, huh. Even if mail-in votes tip Michigan and N.C., the former of which seems more likely than the latter, that's as far as they get?

I expected Wisconsin to be a blowout because we’re getting slammed hard with Covid pretty much everywhere. The very obvious thing I missed is that we’re getting slammed with Covid because we have so many Trump voters.

xxxpost right, but there's a diff between an officially recognized network calling a network vs someone who is a member of the party saying "we won". I get why they're doing that.

xposts

Oh, I guess Georgia. Wow, those Georgia run-offs are going to be something if the majority rides on them.

exactly. All eyes will be on Georgia for the Senate majority

Numbers numbers numbers via Elections Project:

I posted PRELIMINARY estimates of the 2020 state and national turnout and voting-eligible population turnout rates

160 million people voted

Turnout rate: 66.9%

Highest turnout rate since 1900: 73.7%https://t.co/k7y6bGRInG

— Michael McDonald (@ElectProject) November 4, 2020

Nate Cohn:

Joe Biden has won absentee ballots counted in Pennsylvania by an overwhelming margin so far, according to data from the Secretary of State early Wednesday. If he carried the remaining absentee ballots by a similar margin, he would win the state.

The Warnock vs Loeffler runoff is going to be a spectacle

looks like if Biden squeaks Michigan ( and the others he's fav to take) he's on 271 points by my ignorant, presumptuous UK maths. Just heard someone saying he's the fav to take it because of postal votes.

Eh, I messed up the numbers. Georgia not a sure thing but it will be extremely close.

Collins will bend the knee and endorse Loeffler quickly enough I’m sure but it is satisfying watching his Trump whisperer dreams blow up.

prop 22 likely to pass, horrible

What makes you say that? Polls are still open and ballots will not be counted for weeks.

it did end up passing, by a lot, and it did not take weeks

https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2020/11/03/uber-prop22-results-california/

Biden’s math looking better by the minute.

So there's not a path to a Democratic Senate at this point, huh. Even if mail-in votes tip Michigan and N.C., the former of which seems more likely than the latter, that's as far as they get?

― a man often referred to in the news media as the Duke of Saxony (tipsy mothra), Wednesday, November 4, 2020 8:48 AM (sixteen minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink

still curious about collins, but she's at over 50% with 85% of votes counted.

Saw that Biden pulled ahead in Michigan? Anyone else see that anywhere?

Yep

Yep seeing that on CNN rn

Michigan looking good

I drifted off at 3:00 thinking one thing, thought something else when I checked at 6:00, changed again driving in to work. I can only check intermittently during the day. Help me out: Biden's chances of winning now stand at approximately _____ %.

Should we expect the victory to be called for Biden soon?

I feel like I've at least educated 5 of my friends that you can't treat votes like a baseball game and go "oh so and so's *winning*, this is bad" or "so and so is losing, this is great".

literally watched one of my friends oscilatting between "Oh cool Montana's blue, we might win it this year" and "Oh fuck it's red now, WHAT HAPPENED?"

xpost no. it's gonna be a 'likely' thing but not called.

.1 % ahead in Michigan and 89% of votes counted, but apparently these are the postal votes which skew heavily towards Dems.

probably Friday would be the earliest we'll hear a 'call'?

Trump’s campaign in both 2016 and 2020 did some smart micro targeting of black and Hispanic voters who were socially conservative and/or economically moderate and/or pro police. I think the democrats took those votes for granted and assumed “he’s racist” was enough. If you want to know why we aren’t doing better than we are (eg we should have the senate right now) that’s one place to look.

Hard to imagine that idiots want fewer labor protections and benefits, but I guess the propaganda campaign by Uber et al really worked re: Prop 22.

btw the current narrative among Trumpers = voting precincts are "stopping the count" when Trump gets close.

they really are this stupid. they've been spreading false rumors that the cuont stopped in Philly even as those poor employees worked all night.

And just like that Biden has overtaken Trump in Michigan by 25,000 votes with most of the remaining votes likely to be favorable to Biden.

It's really hard to see how Trump wins reelection at this point.

— Josh Jordan (@NumbersMuncher) November 4, 2020

Xxpost Also , appealing to the self-hatred of one group and racism of another isn't a way to shore up Dem votes. Fuck those idiots.

xpost Apparently there is even a live stream!

Anyway if you asked Biden:

Biden campaign thinking:

- They believe they’ve won Wisc, expect it to be called this morning
- Mich vote by mail lead is insurmountable and will be called midday
- Philly vote by mail will come in tonight or tomorrow
- GA result midday or early afternoon
- NV called tomorrow

— Matt Viser (@mviser) November 4, 2020

Just being cautious, I don't think that represents any special knowledge on Twitter's part.

― a man often referred to in the news media as the Duke of Saxony (tipsy mothra), Wednesday, November 4, 2020 8:43 AM (twenty-nine minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink

true, better that they did to help stave off accusations of bias (which will surely come anyway)

literally watched one of my friends oscilatting between "Oh cool Montana's blue, we might win it this year" and "Oh fuck it's red now, WHAT HAPPENED?"

― Lover of Nixon (or LON for short) (Neanderthal),

lol what made last night unbearable for me was assuaging the feelings of my host and her friend, who reacted exactly the way you said when, say, Idaho and Wyoming were callecd.

Philly ballot sorting live stream:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-Zzb-7EH-MQ&feature=emb_logo

(did this work?)

Hard to imagine that idiots want fewer labor protections and benefits, but I guess the propaganda campaign by Uber et al really worked re: Prop 22.

― healthy cocaine off perfect butts (the table is the table), Wednesday, November 4, 2020 9:12 AM (three minutes ago)

don't underestimate the "I don't want Uber to cost a penny more" asshole vote