GET OUT: US politics November 2020

As predicted

So all the late vote counting will be framed as a “stolen” victory

Yeah, the areas in Georgia still outstanding are incredibly Biden-friendly. Dekalb and Fulton will likely come in around 75-80% Biden or more. I don't know if it will be enough to push Ossoff over 50%, though, so there might be two senate runoffs in January if Perdue doesn't land north of half.

It brings minor comfort to see the media is not #bothsides-ing this.

There are people who lost family members due to his covid rallies who voted for him.

If Osama Bin Laden had an “R” next to his name he’d get 35-40 pct of the vote I reckon

He loves guns and believes in the church

no one doubts that he gives you the straight goods

unfortunately his name does rhyme with "obama"

So reporting of Green Bay absentees nets Biden a gain of about 4K upping his lead to around 11K. that still doesn't include city of Kenosha which will add more to Biden total

— Craig Gilbert (@WisVoter) November 4, 2020

Kenosha came in

Biden is 20k ahead now

U.S. Embassy Statement on Côte d’Ivoire’s Presidential Election pic.twitter.com/21UWgg1oTR

— U.S. Embassy Abidjan (@USEmbAbidjan) November 4, 2020

lol

Last 60k counted in MC shrunk the Biden deficit from -44k to -13k. Maybe risky to try to sniff out things from microresults, but still. (At the very least, it seems sensible to deal in per-state raw numbers rather than percentages at this point, tho I get why media etc who have lived inside the polling churn for months tend to report the latter.)

It's looking p good for Biden imo. Wis, Nev and Ariz are in the bag it seems, and he can catch Trump in Mich. Presto.

Late counted stuff is breaking hard for Biden, looking relatively good.

Depressing that this even remotely close.

biden can lose PA and GA but still win if he gets Nevada, Wisconsin and Michigan, right?

+ Arizona, yes, he won't need Philly or Georgia then iirc (he'll be at 270 precisely)

right, that’s assuming NC goes for trump and AZ for biden

That's it, yes.

look i know we’re all like, why is this even close, but this is a famous “business” guy tax-lowerin’ TV star vs... joe fuckin biden

Michigan results are varying by the site I visit. Apparently DDHQ put up some wrong numbers briefly.

538 gives Biden a 97% chance of winning the presidency based on AP's called states.

(he'll be at 270 precisely)

Good, save some for 2024. Doesn't wanna blow his wad.

Tracer Hand otm, in retrospect it was silly to expect a blowout delivered by dupont joe

538 gives me a 97 percent chance of having a heart attack by 3 pm

numbers folks are saying that the popular vote is gonna be a 5-6% margin, so that kinda is a blowout, albeit a meaningless one

Well, I suppose if Biden squeaks in with the EC (a la Trump in 2016) but gets an even bigger popular vote margin, that just further ratifies a win.

“Ratifies a win” but still has to deal with Mitch McConnell running the Senate likely

"ratifies" implies legality/formality iirc. on those terms the vote count means jack shit, jack

I’m marking the time - 7:42 am - that I first believed Joe Biden will be the next president.

— Andrew Sullivan (@sullydish) November 4, 2020

Even if Biden does win, we still have a twentysomething literal Nazi in the US house, and a country where half the population has decided that death is preferred to a life of kindness, grace, and stewardship of the planet.

Like even if this doesn't erupt in war or conflict of some kind, the spiritual warfare of the rest of our lives is going to be interminable.

Tbf, while it feels like years ago, Steve King only just lost his seat less than six months ago. We've got a long way to go as a country, unless you're looking at it the other way, in which case yeah, we're quickly en route to some sort of rock bottom.

Believe me, once i lick my war wounds, i will probably take it all in and feel sick.

But just dying for this to be over

a life of kindness, grace, and stewardship of the planet

I agree, 10k for la riva is shameful

In [Niebuhr’s] view, the price of liberty isn’t merely eternal vigilance; it’s also eternal trial and error. New solutions create new problems. Virtues in one situation become vices in another. Measures to suppress abuses of freedom can end up suppressing freedom. Reason advances justice in some circumstances and camouflages injustice in others. The expansion of knowledge sometimes fuels global understanding and other times fuels imperialism. A free society, Niebuhr believed, demands ceaseless recalibration of unity and diversity, freedom and order, mores and mandates, state power and corporate power. The challenge is “a perpetual one,” he told Luce, “for which no single solution is ever found but upon which each generation must work afresh.”

I'm volunteering at a food pantry today. Some work is never done no matter who wins the White House.

Props to Steve Kornacki, who has been on TV for 2 days straight

Based on the NYT reported numbers by county in GA, I think Biden wins GA by 100,000 votes if all votes are counted. He’s down by 100,000 currently, but the outstanding votes are largely in Democratic counties.

Even NC seems ... too close to call? As 538 posted just now:

Trump is at 50 percent compared with 49 percent for Biden, with around 95 percent of North Carolina’s vote in, according to ABC News projections. One reason it’s hard to declare a winner here is that about 6 percent of the vote is uncounted in Wake County (the Raleigh area) and about 5 percent uncounted in Mecklenburg County (the Charlotte area.) Those are the two largest counties in the state, and Biden is winning Mecklenburg by around 35 percentage points and Wake by about 26 percentage points. So Biden could close Trump’s margin as more votes come in from those two counties. There are some votes left in more Trump-leaning areas in the state, but none of them in counties nearly as large as Mecklenburg or Wake.

So, even if Biden wins, Trump is actually more popular now than he was four years ago? OK, that, er, makes perfect sense.

Apologies, I'm trying very hard to keep out of this thread.

State Democratic Party chair

Green Bay and Kenosha results are in. Biden is now up in Wisconsin by roughly 20,600 votes. That number could wobble a bit, but there's no realistic path for Trump to pull ahead.

Biden has won more votes any prez candidate in WI history.

Folks: Joe Biden just won Wisconsin. https://t.co/xtg0hiSlW4

— Ben Wikler (@benwikler) November 4, 2020

I'm volunteering at a food pantry today. Some work is never done no matter who wins the White House.

It might be done one day if the Dems stop nominating right wing douchebags

It’s just the panic vote. Not enough to overcome the “enough of this shit” vote.

xxxp

So if I read my timeline right, your understanding of the state of American democracy depends on when/if you went to bed last night. I’m a three o clockist.

— James Poniewozik (@poniewozik) November 4, 2020

I went to bed after Biden’s speech but before the authoritarian attempt

xps damn, twitter slapped a warning on Wikler.

AP Decision Desk on North Carolina:

“Though Trump is correct that he held a 76,000-vote lead in the state early Wednesday, the race is too close to call and there are still about 200,000 mail-in ballots left to count. /1

— Emma Kinery (@EmmaKinery) November 4, 2020

I went to sleep after watching Trump’s speech and dreamt of red and blue percentage values