GET OUT: US politics November 2020

turning on that faucet already eh

I don't think you can discount the number of people who believe the COVID response (in human cost and economic support) wouldn't be that much better under a Democrat/Biden. Trump's coronavirus approval has sat steadily just under 40%, but that's a base to work off of if you add the people I'm talking about.

though the two party system has def failed everyone

... where are you getting this? xp

is it terrible to opine from my ivory tower (britain) that a controversially narrow trump win at least nicely clears deck for the grand aoc uprising

It doesn’t really make the least bit of sense so yes it’s terrible

nah but that’s sort of like how i fantasized about a leftist uprising when trump won the first time

Have another English breakfast or whatever and try again!

lol just checking

My brother is 25 & angry over this so I was like “Let me tell you about a little court case called Bush v Gore.”

Things are looking better for Biden, so hopefully he gets enough to get to 270 asap, but fuck me, not nice to wake up to. I don’t care for him much but jfc, get Trump out and sort the rest out later.

Also LJ, alph, etc, can you not?

Why ask questions you know the answer to, people often say to me

we're not! xp

unconditional support for poster silbs!

I really must go to sleep, as I haven’t taken tomorrow off and I would be bored silly if I did

enjoying silby's energy itt i must say

... where are you getting this? xp

Being forced to occasionally talk about the pandemic customers at work, seeing what friends of friends say and polling like this - https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2020/10/09/amid-campaign-turmoil-biden-holds-wide-leads-on-coronavirus-unifying-the-country/

Biden, for obvious reasons, does better than Trump in "would this person make good public health decisions re: 'rona" - but you've got 43% straight off saying Biden wouldn't. A few percent more who feel weakly about it and you're at 46-47%. We all sit in an echo chamber where it might be obvious that a Democrat would have handled it better and saved lives but I think one explanation for a worse result than expected is that more people than you'd expect don't much blame Trump. It's the usual "all politicians suck/are useless equally" that benefits reactionaries.

silby’s energy in this thread (#onethread) is driven mostly by my effervescent fatigue whatever that means

I certainly blame Christofascist death cultists more than Trump per se for the unchecked spread of covid in the USA

Anyway the only polls that matter are the ones that decide who wins the elections, which come down to some results that won’t be clear until at least tomorrow, this is what waiting for mail ballots be like.

Biden leads Trump by 57-40% among likely voters in Wisconsin

lol good one

here's hoping punk music goes back to being terrible in 2021

until at least tomorrow, this is what waiting for mail ballots be like.

just get used to having a democracy guyz

i'm an american i require instant gratification

(in 2010 I voted and then got on a plane to the UK so that I would not have to actively think about whether things were going to go terribly, with our first female contender for PM in the balance.

(the queue to reboard after refuelling in Thailand went past two free internet screens; I just had time to find out that the result had not been called before boarding another ten-hour flight. The election had been announced on 17th July, and held on 21 August.

(Two weeks later I flew home with the result still undecided; it was called on 7 September when a couple of independents signed on to un-hang a hung parliament. The gov't was sworn in a week later.)

((In 2016 it took four weeks to fully call just bcz the result was so close that they had to count and recount all the paper ballots.))

Based on my replies, I don't think people have fully internalized how Democratic these mail and absentee ballots will be in MI/PA/WI. It's going to be close, but these ballots will be overwhelmingly Democratic

— Nate Cohn (@Nate_Cohn) November 4, 2020

there is nothing inside of me but trauma, how can i possibly internalize something else

me: god I thought the democratic primary was interminable
US election night: you are like a little baby

Nithya still ahead for LA city council, fuck yeah, and fuck Nancy Pelosi and Hillary Clinton

meanwhile in Washington, a white guy with no legal experience who was not running for state Supreme Court got 31% against a WOC incumbent. but this at least points towards most incumbents, R or D, staying in place. Ballot measures looking good: sex ed in high school, police reform, increasing sales tax to find public transit (in a pandemic!), and shoring up the hospital across the road from me against earthquakes.

Biden pulling ahead in Wisco

oh wait DiFi endorsed David Ryu too?

fuck Dianne Feinstein

I withdraw my earlier comment, Pittsburgh loves a jag off too damned much.

I've mainly been looking at the Bloomberg map and data, and have let myself be somewhat fooled (also in a post upthread) by the given percentages of votes counted in states and single counties, forgetting that the total vote numbers are also just (possibly badly) estimated quantities. When I went to bed (I am in Norway*) eight hours ago, these total-vote estimates were based on "high" voter turnout; I now notice that they've switched to "historic" voter turnout, and still some counties have counted more votes than the upper estimate ("104-115% of est. total votes counted").

And given these lower-upper turnout estimates (again note: estimates), at the moment there appear to be about 1.5M-2.2M uncounted votes in PA (Biden now at -675K), 0.7M-1.4M uncounted in MC (Biden now -84K), 0K-350K uncounted in WI (Biden now +7K), 60K-560K uncounted in GA (Biden now -103K), 0K-280K in NC (Biden now -77K).

*) NB ftr: if non-US intrusion is unwelcome also for posts like these, please just say so, and I'll happily refrain.

Thanks for the breakdown

Biden's percentages in Michigan and Nevada getting better as the mail-in vote gets counted; Kornacki claims the outstanding Georgia ballots are in the six figures.

good mourning!

Oh right, Nevada: 130K-270K uncounted in NV (Biden now +7K).

got mourning?

Idk if people have mentioned it but trump declared victory alread

As predicted

So all the late vote counting will be framed as a “stolen” victory

Yeah, the areas in Georgia still outstanding are incredibly Biden-friendly. Dekalb and Fulton will likely come in around 75-80% Biden or more. I don't know if it will be enough to push Ossoff over 50%, though, so there might be two senate runoffs in January if Perdue doesn't land north of half.

It brings minor comfort to see the media is not #bothsides-ing this.

There are people who lost family members due to his covid rallies who voted for him.

If Osama Bin Laden had an “R” next to his name he’d get 35-40 pct of the vote I reckon

He loves guns and believes in the church

no one doubts that he gives you the straight goods

unfortunately his name does rhyme with "obama"

So reporting of Green Bay absentees nets Biden a gain of about 4K upping his lead to around 11K. that still doesn't include city of Kenosha which will add more to Biden total

— Craig Gilbert (@WisVoter) November 4, 2020