GET OUT: US politics November 2020

Win GA so i can get off the toilet

Wisconsin has polled extremely well for Biden, recently elected a Dem governor and flopped a state SC seat that nobody gave them a chance at. We are also getting fucking slammed with Covid right now. He might not win by a ton but I’d be really stunned if he lost here, would very much be the story of this election (next to Miami obv)

If you just go by what ABC News has called (we're on the conservative side tonight)... Biden's win probability would go from 69% to 85% based on NE-2 being called! That one electoral vote makes a huge amount of difference.

— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) November 4, 2020

I should have took the week off and really worked on a bender

Cool that the major swing states appear nowhere close to being called yet

it's cool to count all the ballots imo

Win GA so i can get off the toilet

hope we're all assuming you're in a portapotty in that car park still

can’t believe collins is gonna hold on, truly mind-boggling

Just woke up here in Amsterdam - 1:33 EST. This should've been a landslide in Biden's favor but ain't that America (2020)? Holding out hope that he takes it but it shouldn't have ever gotten this close. Really sickened by the large Latino turnout for The Clown. Moronic.

We think Fox made an aggressive call on AZ to try and stop their boy from claiming victory early?

I mean i think it's probably legit but

Looks like good news.

This is just 🤦

Here's one you wouldn't expect: President Trump is doing better this year than he did in 2016 in counties with high COVID-19 death rates. pic.twitter.com/IYjbgjM3lu

— Brad Heath (@bradheath) November 4, 2020

Not all latinx people are the saaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaame

I know I've said this before but I really fucking hate that the election appears to be hinging on the two states it was reasonable to think I could have been living in this year

(pennsylvania because of the job I didn't get; north carolina because technically speaking I could move in with family at any time)

the maps on the guardian show trump leading Georgia and Wisconsin but I may well be doing this all wrong

has polled extremely well

Don't say or think these words ever again.

Georgia moving back a little toward Trump on the needle. Still 59% tilt.

Plax - right now yes, but the count of mail-in will go on..

right okay, I woke up has trump tended to come out ahead and then get overtaken?

no

nothing has "tended" to anything

seeing 64% Biden on the GA needle

Is it me or are the two Nates passive aggressively going at each other on Twitter tonight

Xpost oh wow. 4% more reported than when i looked too. Sweet.

Living in MI, the pervasiveness of MAGA shit outside of the SE corner seems all-encompassing. The polls are what they are, and I have been working the phones for the dems for two months now (which has generally seemed encouraging), but going by the yard-signage ratio in the countryside and suburbs & the turnout I observed in polling locations in my county today, the yokels are out in full force. But the absentee ballots, tho.. holding out hope for protracted rectification b/c A LOT of ppl here have been using the drop boxes.

the two nates fight all the time

they've actually been pretty collegial this year

The Nates now have a common enemy: Rachel Bitecofer

Biden is ahead by 5 in Nevada now that we've got the early vote in Clark and Washoe. That's probably enough, and it did loom as a potential complication for Biden after some of the results in heavily Latino parts of FL/TX

— Nate Cohn (@Nate_Cohn) November 4, 2020

This isn't even my country and I'm stressed as fuck, I have no idea how you guys manage to not become crazy right now

We are insane right now

As a reminder, when you wonder why millions of your fellow citizens voted for that person, the answer is racism.

Sometimes it’s “but the Democrats will raise my taxes” PLUS racism. But that’s an easy Venn bubble to draw.

What I’m panicking about now: if Ohio is Trump +8 it bodes poorly for Wisconsin and Michigan. How much mail in is left there?

Don’t forget ‘OMG that would be SOCIALISM’ plus racism.

xxxxp - I feel like we already cleared it up in the primaries that NV latinxs are not AZ latinxs are not TX latinxs are DEFINITELY not FL latinxs. Why has nobody accounted for this? (i know why)

I no longer believe people vote based on “reasons” it’s just a phenomenon that happens and can’t be made sense of

@ frogbs - in MI, the trend for dem early voting has seemed to entail absentee ballots dropped in boxes or city clerk offices > mail-ins. Make of that what you will.

Wow Trumps Georgia lead just got cut by two thirds

The math actually looks decent for Biden to win by a small amount

Xp - oh...I was talking about Ohio. For Trump to win he’s gonna need another big polling error in the Midwest. Ohio right now looking like he’s got one. But idk how much is left to come in there.

this would be nice! (and surprising given the rest of the house/senate results!)

Big surprise in Fresno? Incumbent Devin Nunes is losing to challenger Phil Arballo by approx 1,800 votes with 85% reporting: https://t.co/BHoZWEHiYS pic.twitter.com/dLtk5jc8B7

— lauren gustus (@laurengustus) November 4, 2020

Does NE-2 play into midwest polling errors?

Nunes losing would be incredible.

Racism seems like it may not explain doing worse on the Texas/Mexico border.

I no longer believe people vote based on “reasons” it’s just a phenomenon that happens and can’t be made sense of

― all cats are beautiful (silby), Tuesday, November 3, 2020 10:50 PM (two minutes ago)

i agree with this more and more ... but i also live in a state with ballot measures and the absurdity of the results of these is like ... idgi

I think it’s unfortunate at this point that regardless of the outcome the Trump/republican brand is here to stay- and in a bigger voting block than I thought existed.

xxxxxxxxp yes plz, fuck devin nunez

the trump/republican brand is here to stay for the rest of any of our lifetimes

the biggest, greatest voter blocs you've ever seen

xp the extent of which depends on who if anyone can take up the torch after djt (and to a similar extent who emerges after Biden)

i want to move.

speaking of blocs, maybe we should build a wall and like, split the country in half ...