GET OUT: US politics November 2020

Otm that the needle was mega precise in 2016. I have nightmares about it

Helpful analysis Fetchboy, thanks

are you sure? it's been steady at 84% probability of a trump win by 1.0-1.2% for like 90 minutes.

― 𝔠𝔞𝔢𝔨 (caek),

I think I meant Georgia -- sorry. CNN's Jon King, whom I never watch, is bullish about the number of Biden vote still available in Georgia.

How is OH not even close???

(and by extension caek)

Not counting on the needle saving us but caek, your clear-headed post yesterday still stands as my guidepost to not freaking out tonight:

i shoulda listened to my own fucken advice. had an extremely rough couple of hours around our kids bedtime.

Okay this is definitely not giving me 2016 vibes anymore

otm

alfred was right too

By the way if Biden wins every Trump supporter is gonna go through an accelerated version of what we went through in 2016 so I’m actually kinda liking this

By this point in 2016 I was hiding the phone in the bathroom so I wouldn't hear the alerts announcing one more Trump victory.

i'm not fully unclenched yet, but i was overclenched because of a buggy needle.

I took THREE showers that night

I do feel better because at this time in 2016 it was already over

How is OH not even close???

― A True White Kid that can Jump (Granny Dainger), Wednesday, November 4, 2020 12:23 AM (three minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink

FWIW, we don't really know how close it is yet, just that it's not "too close to call." The totals now don't reflect the final totals.

Btw i was at a friend's watching results. She kicked me our an hour ago. I'm still in the parking lot

in NC, by the way, the 75,000-vote margin may get affected by the number of postmarked ballots that the state will accept after today.

Yup

how has the % chance of winning GA swung so much? that doesn't make sense

del griffith just sent me another email that said "pewp". Burrito enjoying his ban i see

Cohn hasn't explained yet and his tweet made it look like he was shocked by it

"Atlanta won’t finish its count tonight. Election workers in Fulton County, who were counting absentee ballots, went home for the night. A water line break delayed the count" - NYT

Ok, so say Biden actually wins Georgia, and assume he's also won Arizona, that gives him a few paths right? He no longer absolutely has to win PA.

Seen near the water main, a guy named Pike Mence

Assume Minnesota goes too.

He doesn't technically have to win it with AZ either iirc.

But please do

Is the Times the only one showing GA moving into blue? Is fox still the only one declaring AZ for Biden? I am bewildered.

classic water line break surprise

how has the % chance of winning GA swung so much? that doesn't make sense

― Mr. Cacciatore (Moodles), Wednesday, November 4, 2020 12:30 AM (fifty-two seconds ago) bookmarkflaglink

you talking about the needle? either there's a legit bug in their code or the reporting (which seems like it may have happened in NC), or, they were extrapolating from florida too much in the absence of ballots (GA reported slower than NC), and florida really is more of an outlier than usual this year.

fuck

The Washington Post is projecting that California voters approved Proposition 22, which will keep app-based ride-hailing drivers and food delivery workers classified as independent contractors. pic.twitter.com/s8Xuzm9fmk

— Jon Steingart (@jonsteingart) November 4, 2020

Arnon Mishkin, director of Fox's decision desk, is live on air and says he's absolutely sure about their Arizona call.

— Josh Wingrove (@josh_wingrove) November 4, 2020

can someone please send Megyn Kelly in there

CNN calls Minnesota for Biden.

Oh shit a kid just flew away in a homemade balloon

Right. Assuming Biden wins in Minn, GA, Arizona, and no absolute shockers, he only needs to win one of PA, MI or WI. That's a pretty good place to be.

Assuming he wins GA and loses AZ, he needs any two of those three. Which I think is the same position he'd be in if he won Arizona and lost Georgia. Actually, am I missing something? Why did I keep hearing that he absolutely needs to win PA?

AP just called Florida for Trump

Cos it's indicative of the Rust belt

Ok, so say Biden actually wins Georgia, and assume he's also won Arizona, that gives him a few paths right? He no longer absolutely has to win PA.

If Biden keeps AZ (as called for him by Fox) and MN (as called by AP), then wins Georgia, he basically just needs EITHER MI, or NV + WS to win. Trump can take PA, OH, NC, TX - it doesn't matter.

Assuming he wins GA and loses AZ, he needs any two of those three. Which I think is the same position he'd be in if he won Arizona and lost Georgia. Actually, am I missing something? Why did I keep hearing that he absolutely needs to win PA?

― longtime caller, first time listener (man alive),

Arizona looks like a flip.

GA looks good, but I would not make any assumptions about it

Losing AZ but winning GA seems unfathomable at this point. I’m pretty confident in Arizona, who knows about GA

In any case it’s seems doubtful we will know for Georgia tonight.

At this point I’m sweating over the senate. I thought 2016 was the last dying gasp of white privilege but tonight is troubling.

I think the next big swing is gonna be when those Milwaukee votes come in. I’m pretty confident in Wisconsin. I know the polling has not been the most accurate but I do not see how you lose a state that a high quality pollster pit you up 17 in weeks before the election

Otherwise I'm right though? Am I missing something? Assuming he did win AZ, he can win with any two of: Georgia, Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania?

White supremacy doesn’t die on this continent til the white people are repatriated

fwiw, there's this:

NATE SILVER
NOV. 4, 12:34 AM
A lot of states have been called on some networks and not on others. If you plug in all the states where any network has called the state for Biden or Trump, it shows Biden at 88 percent to win the Electoral College, Trump at 6 percent, and a 6 percent chance of a tie. But that depends on Biden winning Arizona and Minnesota, which ABC News hasn’t projected yet.

Biden just made a statement: “We believe we’re on track to win this election.”

Biden declaring victory over naptime

the senate seems like it's going to end 49-51 tonight and will come down to the two georgia runoffs in january.

i would favor the dems to pick up at least one there. 2 months of literally nothing being done in DC while people die is not a good pitch for a GOP senate. but who knows.