GET OUT: US politics November 2020

Lol was the needle designed by Rube Goldberg

reading these Nate Cohn tweets about the times needle I can't help but picture him as Professor Frink with the Gambletron 2000 -- "And the winner is...New York by 200 points?!"

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/El9H77jVgAAETSX?format=jpg&name=large

to be fair to the needle, none of their predictions have moved outside the uncertainties. the needle is imo better than parsing tea leaves on twitter from random accounts. the problem is 1) there seems to be a legit bug in their code this year 2) their audience can't parse uncertainties.

Not counting on the needle saving us but caek, your clear-headed post yesterday still stands as my guidepost to not freaking out tonight:

here's my election night plan for unclenching.

these are the states that might declare on the night in order of how much a biden win would make me unclench.

if trump sweeps all five of these then a legal fight in PA (if not actual violence) seems likely and i will thus remain clenched.

TEXAS
miiiiight declare on election night
a long shot obviously, but worth so many EVs that it's pretty much a done deal if it goes biden

FLORIDA
will probably declare on election night, probably first among these states
toss up. if it goes biden it's basically over AFAICT

OHIO
miiiiight declare on election night
bit of a long shot for biden, worth a decent number of EVs, but the main thing is that if it goes biden it's a very strong sign that PA should be OK
see https://newrepublic.com/article/160022/ohio-state-watch-election-night

NORTH CAROLINA
will probably declare on election night
basically the same deal as ohio

ARIZONA
will probably declare on election night
if biden wins this and there are not 10+ point surprises in WI and MI (or anywhere else) then it's over in principle (but this happening, biden winning WI and MI and the single votes in maine and nebraska, and trump winning everything else he won in 2016 gives biden a 1-2 vote win in the EC, so the possibility of legal shenanigans etc. would make me a little nervous to unclench on this alone).

NC also swinging back to Biden.

― Patriotic Goiter (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Wednesday, November 4, 2020 12:17 AM (two minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink

are you sure? it's been steady at 84% probability of a trump win by 1.0-1.2% for like 90 minutes.

Otm that the needle was mega precise in 2016. I have nightmares about it

Helpful analysis Fetchboy, thanks

are you sure? it's been steady at 84% probability of a trump win by 1.0-1.2% for like 90 minutes.

― 𝔠𝔞𝔢𝔨 (caek),

I think I meant Georgia -- sorry. CNN's Jon King, whom I never watch, is bullish about the number of Biden vote still available in Georgia.

How is OH not even close???

(and by extension caek)

Not counting on the needle saving us but caek, your clear-headed post yesterday still stands as my guidepost to not freaking out tonight:

i shoulda listened to my own fucken advice. had an extremely rough couple of hours around our kids bedtime.

Okay this is definitely not giving me 2016 vibes anymore

otm

alfred was right too

By the way if Biden wins every Trump supporter is gonna go through an accelerated version of what we went through in 2016 so I’m actually kinda liking this

By this point in 2016 I was hiding the phone in the bathroom so I wouldn't hear the alerts announcing one more Trump victory.

i'm not fully unclenched yet, but i was overclenched because of a buggy needle.

I took THREE showers that night

I do feel better because at this time in 2016 it was already over

How is OH not even close???

― A True White Kid that can Jump (Granny Dainger), Wednesday, November 4, 2020 12:23 AM (three minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink

FWIW, we don't really know how close it is yet, just that it's not "too close to call." The totals now don't reflect the final totals.

Btw i was at a friend's watching results. She kicked me our an hour ago. I'm still in the parking lot

in NC, by the way, the 75,000-vote margin may get affected by the number of postmarked ballots that the state will accept after today.

Yup

how has the % chance of winning GA swung so much? that doesn't make sense

del griffith just sent me another email that said "pewp". Burrito enjoying his ban i see

Cohn hasn't explained yet and his tweet made it look like he was shocked by it

"Atlanta won’t finish its count tonight. Election workers in Fulton County, who were counting absentee ballots, went home for the night. A water line break delayed the count" - NYT

Ok, so say Biden actually wins Georgia, and assume he's also won Arizona, that gives him a few paths right? He no longer absolutely has to win PA.

Seen near the water main, a guy named Pike Mence

Assume Minnesota goes too.

He doesn't technically have to win it with AZ either iirc.

But please do

Is the Times the only one showing GA moving into blue? Is fox still the only one declaring AZ for Biden? I am bewildered.

classic water line break surprise

how has the % chance of winning GA swung so much? that doesn't make sense

― Mr. Cacciatore (Moodles), Wednesday, November 4, 2020 12:30 AM (fifty-two seconds ago) bookmarkflaglink

you talking about the needle? either there's a legit bug in their code or the reporting (which seems like it may have happened in NC), or, they were extrapolating from florida too much in the absence of ballots (GA reported slower than NC), and florida really is more of an outlier than usual this year.

fuck

The Washington Post is projecting that California voters approved Proposition 22, which will keep app-based ride-hailing drivers and food delivery workers classified as independent contractors. pic.twitter.com/s8Xuzm9fmk

— Jon Steingart (@jonsteingart) November 4, 2020

Arnon Mishkin, director of Fox's decision desk, is live on air and says he's absolutely sure about their Arizona call.

— Josh Wingrove (@josh_wingrove) November 4, 2020

can someone please send Megyn Kelly in there

CNN calls Minnesota for Biden.

Oh shit a kid just flew away in a homemade balloon

Right. Assuming Biden wins in Minn, GA, Arizona, and no absolute shockers, he only needs to win one of PA, MI or WI. That's a pretty good place to be.

Assuming he wins GA and loses AZ, he needs any two of those three. Which I think is the same position he'd be in if he won Arizona and lost Georgia. Actually, am I missing something? Why did I keep hearing that he absolutely needs to win PA?

AP just called Florida for Trump

Cos it's indicative of the Rust belt

Ok, so say Biden actually wins Georgia, and assume he's also won Arizona, that gives him a few paths right? He no longer absolutely has to win PA.

If Biden keeps AZ (as called for him by Fox) and MN (as called by AP), then wins Georgia, he basically just needs EITHER MI, or NV + WS to win. Trump can take PA, OH, NC, TX - it doesn't matter.

Assuming he wins GA and loses AZ, he needs any two of those three. Which I think is the same position he'd be in if he won Arizona and lost Georgia. Actually, am I missing something? Why did I keep hearing that he absolutely needs to win PA?

― longtime caller, first time listener (man alive),

Arizona looks like a flip.

GA looks good, but I would not make any assumptions about it

Losing AZ but winning GA seems unfathomable at this point. I’m pretty confident in Arizona, who knows about GA

In any case it’s seems doubtful we will know for Georgia tonight.

At this point I’m sweating over the senate. I thought 2016 was the last dying gasp of white privilege but tonight is troubling.

I think the next big swing is gonna be when those Milwaukee votes come in. I’m pretty confident in Wisconsin. I know the polling has not been the most accurate but I do not see how you lose a state that a high quality pollster pit you up 17 in weeks before the election