GET OUT: US politics November 2020

However this shakes out, I'm going to be thinking often about the murmurs that Biden's camp weren't pursuing Latino outreach properly. Two in a row of ignoring (or actively spiting) a demographic in the pursuit of Lincoln Project Republicans might ought to be a lesson.

No question about in Florida and southern Texas.

We never did get a "Tio Joe" phenomenon

i haven't read this yet, but bookmarked it for when i sober up

Do you want to understand why Arizona flipped while Florida stayed red? Read my story about the political and demographic transformation of Maricopa County, and the grassroots progressive organizing (not national Dems) that facilitated it. https://t.co/nIfwUN3Ivt

— Jose A. Del Real (@jdelreal) November 4, 2020

what is even going on right now? what are we waiting on tonight? what will take days? i know at least wisconsin is pointless to think about until tomorrow morning.

Hate to say it but Bernie did pretty well with Latinos

milo z, i remember you being otm that if the dems take the senate then those two GA runoffs are lost causes. i guess we'll never know now. god those campaigns are going to be awful.

sic you have otm'd me before

>:( me offtm

230,000. i know. it's hard to keep up to date.

it's fair to say that at least 100 people would have died of the 'vid if Hillary had won in 2016 tbf

what is even going on right now? what are we waiting on tonight? what will take days? i know at least wisconsin is pointless to think about until tomorrow morning.

― Karl Malone, Wednesday, November 4, 2020 12:02 AM (one minute ago) bookmarkflaglink

i think the next swing state to call will be NE-2 (which i believe mathematically rules out a tie if it goes biden as is currently expected)

Hate to say it but Bernie did pretty well with Latinos

I'm fine with hearing it

#WarrenWouldaWon

Trump advisers say campaign is furious with Fox for its Arizona call for Biden, an indication of how much was riding on the state. "Words cannot describe the anger," the adviser said.

— Jim Acosta (@Acosta) November 4, 2020

fox, welcome to the resistance

Hate to say it but Bernie did pretty well with Latinos

Community organizing is a funny thing.

The GA needle just went blue, folks.

NYT needle now predicting a biden win in Georgia

ffffffuuuuck

that's the stuff

Diane, here's something we haven't seen before pic.twitter.com/pbxoZViGSw

— Nate Cohn (@Nate_Cohn) November 4, 2020

The Needle(tm)

haha, Yamiche, outside the bunker house, just reported Trump being "furious" at Fox too

#nastywoman

There could be a 250-300k swing towards Biden in DeKalb and Fulton counties.

and the Damage Done

xxp

lmao this is so dumb

the needle was horrifying but 100% correct in 2016. seems like they've fucked up pretty badly this year somehow.

Atlanta won’t finish its count tonight. Election workers in Fulton County, who were counting absentee ballots, went home for the night. A water line break delayed the count.

I gotta say as a former metro Atlanta resident this is way too on the nose

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mJ58TVYNFro&list=PLD6DB4FDAF4C9F7A6

yeah who is with me!?

fuck!

whoever said they never want to hear about another poll in their life up above OTM - another in a long line of situations where I don't think we're built to process all this information meaningfully, we impute too much concrete meaning into probabilities and psych ourselves up with it and when it doesn't come true it's more painful

Cmon please

https://youtu.be/yIJBTvjjFmw

how about those 300K ballots with the USPS

I have not watched a moment of election coverage because I've been feeling like run down shit all day, if anyone would like the good vibes Youtube videos I've been watching instead.

wtf is going on with this needle?

NC also swinging back to Biden.

XXxpost lawsuit coming apparently

I guess I should inject this needle. I haven't tried it. A good fix?

Lol was the needle designed by Rube Goldberg

reading these Nate Cohn tweets about the times needle I can't help but picture him as Professor Frink with the Gambletron 2000 -- "And the winner is...New York by 200 points?!"

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/El9H77jVgAAETSX?format=jpg&name=large

to be fair to the needle, none of their predictions have moved outside the uncertainties. the needle is imo better than parsing tea leaves on twitter from random accounts. the problem is 1) there seems to be a legit bug in their code this year 2) their audience can't parse uncertainties.

Not counting on the needle saving us but caek, your clear-headed post yesterday still stands as my guidepost to not freaking out tonight:

here's my election night plan for unclenching.

these are the states that might declare on the night in order of how much a biden win would make me unclench.

if trump sweeps all five of these then a legal fight in PA (if not actual violence) seems likely and i will thus remain clenched.

TEXAS
miiiiight declare on election night
a long shot obviously, but worth so many EVs that it's pretty much a done deal if it goes biden

FLORIDA
will probably declare on election night, probably first among these states
toss up. if it goes biden it's basically over AFAICT

OHIO
miiiiight declare on election night
bit of a long shot for biden, worth a decent number of EVs, but the main thing is that if it goes biden it's a very strong sign that PA should be OK
see https://newrepublic.com/article/160022/ohio-state-watch-election-night

NORTH CAROLINA
will probably declare on election night
basically the same deal as ohio

ARIZONA
will probably declare on election night
if biden wins this and there are not 10+ point surprises in WI and MI (or anywhere else) then it's over in principle (but this happening, biden winning WI and MI and the single votes in maine and nebraska, and trump winning everything else he won in 2016 gives biden a 1-2 vote win in the EC, so the possibility of legal shenanigans etc. would make me a little nervous to unclench on this alone).

NC also swinging back to Biden.

― Patriotic Goiter (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Wednesday, November 4, 2020 12:17 AM (two minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink

are you sure? it's been steady at 84% probability of a trump win by 1.0-1.2% for like 90 minutes.

Otm that the needle was mega precise in 2016. I have nightmares about it

Helpful analysis Fetchboy, thanks

are you sure? it's been steady at 84% probability of a trump win by 1.0-1.2% for like 90 minutes.

― 𝔠𝔞𝔢𝔨 (caek),

I think I meant Georgia -- sorry. CNN's Jon King, whom I never watch, is bullish about the number of Biden vote still available in Georgia.

How is OH not even close???

(and by extension caek)

Not counting on the needle saving us but caek, your clear-headed post yesterday still stands as my guidepost to not freaking out tonight:

i shoulda listened to my own fucken advice. had an extremely rough couple of hours around our kids bedtime.

Okay this is definitely not giving me 2016 vibes anymore

otm

alfred was right too

By the way if Biden wins every Trump supporter is gonna go through an accelerated version of what we went through in 2016 so I’m actually kinda liking this