GET OUT: US politics November 2020

k3v, i am sorry. Everybody else, i am sorry. I know saying sorry and continuing to go purple faced when I'm having an anxiety attack is a bad look so i am gonna bow out and not shit up the thread

Love to all. I'm going to bed to dream of Arizona.

I really love u all, love the weird makeup of this board and the different kinds of smart ppl who still post here. tonight is as good a reminder as any that we're all on the same team. voted straight ticket dem tonight btw

i'm still grappling with the fact that yes, this is going to take weeks

welcome to democracy!

David Brooks is on PBS, vibrating so oddly towards the screen while talking about how tight the Republicans are gonna pull that he looks like he's totally Toobining

felt nice voting for ed markey and ayana pressley tonight. was a little weird voting for biden/harris and I know my vote was meaningless but voting against trump felt good enough that I pulled the trigger

the economist forecast went from 77% biden after FL was called to 95% biden after arizona was called.

those numbers are both too high IMO, but the change feels about right to me.

economist guy if you want to follow him: https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/

k3vin k: hello fellow MAer!

k3vin, neanderthal
<3

i don't know why i thought tonight would be any different than the rest of this cursed era

Remember a lot of people think Biden being down 15 or so before the mail ins are counted is a good result for him

the terrible thing is that it's a different situation in every state. if you dig deep, you can look into every state and see what the situation is. in one state, biden's down 10% and that's great news because mail-ins aren't counted yet. in another, biden's up 5%, and that means he's doomed. while you dig deep, new results are coming in and changing everything. it's a fool's errand. you can bust your ass just to be ahead of the curve by 20 minutes tonight. who cares.

the main thing is that it's not a decisive rebuke. or at least, it doesn't seem to be.

is it weird that i'm mesmerized and vaguely aroused by Steve Kornacki's kinetic normcore persona?

(sorry to keep lowering the level of discourse)

oh, i'm with you there

lad its almost 5am

have ye not got this sorted

is it weird that i'm mesmerized and vaguely aroused by Steve Kornacki's kinetic normcore persona?

yeah but he looks like he has halitosis.

it's not a decisive rebuke. or at least, it doesn't seem to be.

OK. Maybe not. But if Biden wins the important thing is that his inauguration crowd needs to be bigger than Trump's.

lol kinda true xp

JUST IN: Florida approves $15 minimum wage https://t.co/k4FZAXRuza pic.twitter.com/J7RwzQiqRw

— The Hill (@thehill) November 4, 2020

NYT walking back the needle on their georgia prediction now too

have ye not got this sorted

(taps foot. looks at watch. glares at Hawaii and American Samoa)

NYT has reduced their estimate of the probability of trump sweeping FL, NC and GA from like 79% to 64% in the past 30 minutes. remember any other outcome in those three states is basically curtains for trump.

k3vin k: hello fellow MAer!

― keen reverberations of twee (collardio gelatinous), Tuesday, November 3, 2020 11:37 PM (nine minutes ago)

*fist bump*

NYT is crap at this. I'd disregard them.

xp fwiw i can promise u Hawaiʻi’s EC votes will be for Biden

with the caveat that CA reliably swings left over literally weeks as the results come in, here's the current ballot measure situation for anyone who is interested

https://electionresults.sos.ca.gov/returns/ballot-measures

user del griffith just emailed me the word "poop"

Good on FL for approving $15 minimum. So they're closet socialists after all.

I fear the Florida legislature will neuter it like they did the felon amendment. But a victory.

results from starr county, texas, the most latino county in the united states (96% latino)

2016: clinton+60
2020: biden+5 with >98% reporting

we are witnessing a dramatic and historic realignment pic.twitter.com/PxC7ofJYL7

— Thao Nguyen (@nguyenthevote) November 4, 2020

just want to say that this, right now, is one of those rare moments when people don't know what's going to happen

i do

DEEEEEMS?!?

soon it will all be clear, and in fact, everyone will have seen it coming from weeks away, given ___ and ___

good luck california

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/El9DfczVgAEsJu4?format=jpg&name=large

who do i bet my life savings on caek, give it to me!!

Yeah this suddenly does not feel like 2016 so much any more

Fox called OH

ohio to trump

back in 2016 people were scolded relentlessly for predicting that the next four years would be disastrous and many people would die. still waiting on the apologies for that

<3 to everyone freaking out itt, but also the freaking out is a good reason to not hold anything hysterical and stupid the people posted itt four years ago against them

We expected this to end tonight

nah

WHY COULDN'T THE DEMOCRATS HAVE FOUND SOMEONE INSPIRING THEN, IF THAT IS WHAT MAKES THE DIFFERENCE, LIKE JESUS CHRIST

for the first time ever, treeship otm tbf.

And no landslide means Trump will never, ever go away, he'll be a sore on the body politic for years to come

no matter the degree of the swing, if he loses he will be in no shape to run in four years or directly influence politics again in two; both mentally and physically, he's running more on hate and self-regard than actual capability. and as long as he leaves office, he's likely to be busy in court for much of what remains of his life, starting by the end of 2021.

looks like proposition 22 is going to pass, and rent control is going to fail in CA because we're a bunch of nativists with a death wish. early days, but the leads are huge.

:( :( but fuck yeah nithya



felt nice voting for ed markey and ayana pressley tonight.

yeahhh! the head ticket might be limp dogshit, but cheers to anyone who got to vote for actual caring humans with good policy today

No surprise but the final margin is gonna be important

sic you have otm'd me before

However this shakes out, I'm going to be thinking often about the murmurs that Biden's camp weren't pursuing Latino outreach properly. Two in a row of ignoring (or actively spiting) a demographic in the pursuit of Lincoln Project Republicans might ought to be a lesson.

No question about in Florida and southern Texas.

We never did get a "Tio Joe" phenomenon

i haven't read this yet, but bookmarked it for when i sober up

Do you want to understand why Arizona flipped while Florida stayed red? Read my story about the political and demographic transformation of Maricopa County, and the grassroots progressive organizing (not national Dems) that facilitated it. https://t.co/nIfwUN3Ivt

— Jose A. Del Real (@jdelreal) November 4, 2020

what is even going on right now? what are we waiting on tonight? what will take days? i know at least wisconsin is pointless to think about until tomorrow morning.

Hate to say it but Bernie did pretty well with Latinos

milo z, i remember you being otm that if the dems take the senate then those two GA runoffs are lost causes. i guess we'll never know now. god those campaigns are going to be awful.

sic you have otm'd me before

>:( me offtm

230,000. i know. it's hard to keep up to date.

it's fair to say that at least 100 people would have died of the 'vid if Hillary had won in 2016 tbf

what is even going on right now? what are we waiting on tonight? what will take days? i know at least wisconsin is pointless to think about until tomorrow morning.

― Karl Malone, Wednesday, November 4, 2020 12:02 AM (one minute ago) bookmarkflaglink

i think the next swing state to call will be NE-2 (which i believe mathematically rules out a tie if it goes biden as is currently expected)

Hate to say it but Bernie did pretty well with Latinos

I'm fine with hearing it

#WarrenWouldaWon