GET OUT: US politics November 2020

i will admit to not knowing every detail of every district, or which state counts mail ballots ahead of time etc.
but it would be nice if we could allow for people to have opinions that differ from ours without losing our shit here.

trump winning 1-3 states the polls said he was going to lose

Which are those, again?

― but also fuck you (unperson), Tuesday, November 3, 2020 11:02 PM (twenty seconds ago) bookmarkflaglink

Florida, NC and Georgia. Biden was up in the polling average in all three.

but it would be nice if we could allow for people to have opinions that differ from ours without losing our shit here.

― FRAUDULENT STEAKS (The Cursed Return of the Dastardly Thermo Thinwall), Tuesday, November 3, 2020 11:03 PM (eight seconds ago) bookmarkflaglink

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nobody has flipped a state, which if it holds, equals a trump
win

So when’s this blue shift happening

The polls don't say anyone's going to lose anything, come on. They're a snapshot, and the ones Trump has won didn't have big Dem leads in the polls, did they?

We've been warned about election day votes overall skewing to Republicans for ages. It gives Trump the opportunity to grasp the idea that he's the winner prematurely

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/oct/31/red-mirage-trump-election-scenario-victory

This thread is a bunch of PTSD confirmation bias nightmares. I’m out

― sound of scampo talk to me (El Tomboto), Tuesday, November 3, 2020 7:57 PM (five minutes ago)

Bravely picking up our departed friend’s torch

No matter the final results, I never wanna hear about polls again in my life. Fucking useless

I confess that I thought the Biden margin of victory would be big enough that this wouldn't be an issue, but it's still looking OK for Biden imo.

If this give Republicans the opportunity to say "look all the mail-in ballots counted after Tuesday must be wrong because we won on the night" then fuck that.

biden is still the favorite but his odds have fallen, is all I’m saying. not unreasonable to point that out

A link explaining just how long it's actually gonna take to count the votes, state by state:

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/upshot/vote-counting-today-polls-election.html

Definitely that's fine, kevin!

xpost

biden is still the favorite but his odds have fallen, is all I’m saying. not unreasonable to point that out

― k3vin k., Tuesday, November 3, 2020 11:07 PM (twenty-eight seconds ago) bookmarkflaglink

yes thank you. anything else sounds like hyperbole to me.

No matter the final results, I never wanna hear about polls again in my life. Fucking useless

― A True White Kid that can Jump (Granny Dainger), Tuesday, November 3, 2020

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/upshot/vote-counting-today-polls-election.html

Also good is FiveThirtyEight's 'shift in results' column here:

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-results-timing/

not unreasonable, and the sides have been "this is bad news" and "SHUT UP DON'T REACT"

Yeah this is not the landslide I was expecting. It’s unfathomable that a sitting president can fuck up so badly and still not take a hit. But Biden is still in an okay position. If he gets Arizona I think he may even be a decent favorite.

Biden's problem right now not election day votes! People getting worked up one way or the other about those without precint level analysis is a problem! Neanderthal is right about that.

But _Biden's_ problem is that he's running behind the polls in pretty much every called state, and he can't afford a huge polling miss in the tipping point state (PA).

Now I agree that it looks like the polling misses outside FL (2-3 points) are not big enough to overcome his polling lead in PA (5 points), but still!

i.e. kevin otm

Michigan hasn't sent in its EV totals yet, according to MSNBC.

If this give Republicans the opportunity to say "look all the mail-in ballots counted after Tuesday must be wrong because we won on the night" then fuck that.

It's like a sports team saying "we won three out of the four quarters of the game. We won 3 to 1. That's more important than the final score. "

How Ohio is doing the count, according to the Times:

Ballots cast before Election Day will be reported by 8 p.m., and they are likely to be relatively stronger for Mr. Biden. They will be followed by those cast in-person or arriving on Election Day. No additional results will be reported over the next week and a half. Counties may report their full official count after their vote canvass, due by Nov. 18, but full statewide results will not be available until final certification, due by Nov. 28. No predictions were provided for the share of results reported by Wednesday.

For what it’s worth this is the exact scenario we all told ourselves not to panic about for the last month

Yeah this is not the landslide I was expecting. It’s unfathomable that a sitting president can fuck up so badly and still not take a hit.

this is the root of the pain of tonight, i think. and on a practical level, it also sucks for the senate.

yeah, for me this is what i find unfathomable

yes

Yeah, that's true. It's disappointment in humans. But then I always thought that even if Biden wins, that still probably leaves 40% of voters opting for someone as bad as Trump. It's all small margins we're talking about and there's no getting away from that lump of grimness.

one of the things that both 2016 and 2020 results so far confirm is what a political phenom Obama was

We expected this to end tonight; it might not, which, like katherine said, looks like it benefits Trump's psy-ops warfare.

i mean, 220,000 people just died. holy shit

I am still receiving Trump campaign emails. Just got one with this subject line and subhead:

They're not going to call the race.
They don't want me to WIN.

So don't expect a premature declaration of victory at midnight. He's gonna keep trying to squeeze the last nickels out of his cultists.

don't look now but the needle just jumped from trump+1.7 to trump+1.2 in NC, which is a huge jump at 95% reporting, and confirms something is up there.

700 died because of his fucking rallies

https://www.tampabay.com/news/health/2020/11/02/stanford-study-links-trump-rallies-to-30000-covid-19-cases-700-deaths/

xp

don't look now but the needle just jumped from trump+1.7 to trump+1.2 in NC, which is a huge jump at 95% reporting, and confirms something is up there.

I'm not anti-psephology but I would love to stick that needle up NYT's ass

230,000. i know. it's hard to keep up to date.

one of the things that both 2016 and 2020 results so far confirm is what a political phenom Obama was

― keen reverberations of twee (collardio gelatinous), Tuesday, November 3, 2020 11:14 PM (two minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink

WHY COULDN'T THE DEMOCRATS HAVE FOUND SOMEONE INSPIRING THEN, IF THAT IS WHAT MAKES THE DIFFERENCE, LIKE JESUS CHRIST

xp -- are you sure that isn't the randolph county thing

what a stupid moron and a stupid country

― treeship., Monday, November 2, 2020 8:22 AM (yesterday)

I was here to discuss the election night but now I'm 100% just about the treeship meltdown.

WHY COULDN'T THE DEMOCRATS HAVE FOUND SOMEONE INSPIRING THEN, IF THAT IS WHAT MAKES THE DIFFERENCE, LIKE JESUS CHRIST

srsly. But also: I tried!

shut up van horn street

still a couple of hours behind on the thread but lolol at PBS and AP calling Inslee over Culp for governor, case closed, with 0% of the vote counted

also hollow lol at the vote clusters on PBS' maps looking like like li'l coronavirii

you're not mad at each other, you're mad at the world

We've been waiting for this day since the day after the 2016 election. Politically speaking, the past four years have been unmitigated horror. It is understandable if we are on edge.

whoa!

BIG FOX NEWS call: JOE BIDEN wins ARIZONA.

Huge development for Democrats.

— Josh Kraushaar (@HotlineJosh) November 4, 2020

nice!

Yeah, now please Michigan and Wisconsin don't fail me now

i guess for some reason, trump making fun of mccain for 4 years straight and also murdering a few hundred people with his dumbass indoor rally cost him a a few percentage points of support!!!!