GET OUT: US politics November 2020

I don't get the doom reactions to the weirdest and most discombobulated results rollout in modern history.

The early count appears to have been completed in AZ: 8.7pt lead for Biden. My 3:50am brain reckons Biden needs around 39-40% of today's vote in AZ to get over the line there.

nate silver insisting GA is still in doubt which seems like a fucken stretch to me but who knows at this point

as has been stated, discombobulation benefits Trump, because he and his administration have been trying very hard to cut the counting of votes short, and the only counterweight to that would have been a decisive Biden landslide, which is not going to happen

i'm with you there, katherine. a big thing, for tonight, was whether or not americans would send a decisive rebuke of trump. regardless of how turns out, i'd say, no, we didn't.

ow is he off to a "bad" start? Early returns don't cone in proportionately with blue and red counties

― Lover of Nixon (or LON for short) (Neanderthal), Tuesday, November 3, 2020 10:44 PM (one minute ago)

biden had a 69% percent chance to win florida by 538's forecast, and has now lost pretty decisively. for someone with a very basic grasp of probability this would alter your pretest for a biden win non-negligibly

katherine we have a separate “trump will win” thread

i am hugely disappointed, of course, but not as surprised as i was in 2016

Florida hasn’t been called

biden had a 69% percent chance to win florida by 538's forecast, and has now lost pretty decisively. for someone with a very basic grasp of probability this would alter your pretest for a biden win non-negligibly

― k3vin k., Tuesday, November 3, 2020 10:55 PM bookmarkflaglink

Cute how you just showed up itt after a long absence but uhh its been pretty well established that we're not necessarily seeing this level of polling error in other states.

apologies for posting about US politics in the US politics thread

Oh the needle? The same fuckin' needle that counted 45,000 votes in NC?

*extra

Florida is such a fucking weird state, they’ve gone against the grain in a number of elections

Have there been any other big surprises?

I should get my eyes checked, I can't believe I missed the "optimists only" part of the thread title

This thread is a bunch of PTSD confirmation bias nightmares. I’m out

Biden’s got this

I am quite willing to accept this as the likely outcome. He'll wallop Trump in the total popular vote, but I was hoping for a very strong EC victory and right now the Senate flipping looks extremely iffy as well. C'mon Alaska!

katherine otm

if you're not spooked by this, you are made of stone

No. Not one. I mean maybe that Trump might not win any of NC, GA, or FL, but firewall states haven't fallen and Biden has overperformed elsewhere.

I already have friends sobbing and saying they can't believe Trump won again.

There's a diff between being spooked and interpreting early returns incorrectly

at the moment one could be forgiven for thinking the 2020 map will be the same as the 2016 map, going by the leads and fractions counted.

itt i am made of stone

neanderthal I would like to keep things positive as much as possible interpersonally given the weight of tonight but please take my word for it as someone who understands basic probability that you are pretty much talking out of your ass

katherine i owe you citations for my claim that NC is electorally-demographically at least as similar to the midwest as it is to florida, but i'm afraid i've started drinking.

these aren't fucking early returns

They're not "leads" if you don't consider what counties have reported and which are still outstanding and in what volume. This isn't a footrace

you'd have a point if you said people weren't accounting for late returns, but the early returns came in literally hours ago

Kev go fuck yourself you cunt

I already have friends sobbing and saying they can't believe Trump won again.

They are re-living their trauma. It's understandable. Trauma lives in you forever.

Seriously eat my huge fuckin' cock

katherine do you know what certified results are?

Fuck this board

kevin is right that if you haven't updated your model of what is going on in the light of trump winning 1-3 states the polls said he was going to lose then you're not doing it right.

There's PTSD and there's fucking doomsday porn

but neanderthal is right that random counts of votes are useless.

I do, and if they end up being massively different from what was reported, feel free to call me an idiot

trump winning 1-3 states the polls said he was going to lose

Which are those, again?

it looks like the polling miss in florida was larger than elsewhere, but it's been in the same direction _everywhere_ so far. that _should_ worry you!

NOBODY HAS FLIPPED A STATE YET

i will admit to not knowing every detail of every district, or which state counts mail ballots ahead of time etc.
but it would be nice if we could allow for people to have opinions that differ from ours without losing our shit here.

trump winning 1-3 states the polls said he was going to lose

Which are those, again?

― but also fuck you (unperson), Tuesday, November 3, 2020 11:02 PM (twenty seconds ago) bookmarkflaglink

Florida, NC and Georgia. Biden was up in the polling average in all three.

but it would be nice if we could allow for people to have opinions that differ from ours without losing our shit here.

― FRAUDULENT STEAKS (The Cursed Return of the Dastardly Thermo Thinwall), Tuesday, November 3, 2020 11:03 PM (eight seconds ago) bookmarkflaglink

board description

nobody has flipped a state, which if it holds, equals a trump
win

So when’s this blue shift happening

The polls don't say anyone's going to lose anything, come on. They're a snapshot, and the ones Trump has won didn't have big Dem leads in the polls, did they?

We've been warned about election day votes overall skewing to Republicans for ages. It gives Trump the opportunity to grasp the idea that he's the winner prematurely

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/oct/31/red-mirage-trump-election-scenario-victory

This thread is a bunch of PTSD confirmation bias nightmares. I’m out

― sound of scampo talk to me (El Tomboto), Tuesday, November 3, 2020 7:57 PM (five minutes ago)

Bravely picking up our departed friend’s torch

No matter the final results, I never wanna hear about polls again in my life. Fucking useless

I confess that I thought the Biden margin of victory would be big enough that this wouldn't be an issue, but it's still looking OK for Biden imo.

If this give Republicans the opportunity to say "look all the mail-in ballots counted after Tuesday must be wrong because we won on the night" then fuck that.