GET OUT: US politics November 2020

I’ve reached the “cursing the fuck out of jo jorgensen” phase of election night

— Sarah Cooper (@sarahcpr) November 4, 2020

Blue check brain

this is a pretty shitty start to the night all said, good news would be biden building comfortable leads in some of the battleground states, and he's not doing that. I'm getting drunk

Someone I trust retweeted it.

just fyi you shouldn't trust them

I still do not believe Trump wins Wisconsin.

I'm sitting here with two panicking people b/c Florida -- like 2018. Nothing's changed. We're still waiting.

I don't get the doom reactions to the weirdest and most discombobulated results rollout in modern history.

the networks aren’t helping, especially not CNN which colors the map based on who’s leading at the time

Yea I'm not watching Wolfenstein

discombobulation benefits trump, who has been trying very hard to not have votes counted

If the world ends tonight, at least Joy Reid will be splendidly attired when the seven trumpets are sounded.

This was expected discombobulation to some degree. We knew the vote tabulation rollout would be weird.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pNYFpTLazvA

I am panicking, but I live in a very anti-Trump bubble and its hard for my brain to process the fact that lots of people voted for him. I think I will turn off the computer and read a book or something.

jokes

I don't get the doom reactions to the weirdest and most discombobulated results rollout in modern history.

― Lover of Nixon (or LON for short) (Neanderthal), Tuesday, November 3, 2020 10:36 PM (one minute ago)

it's not complicated, man. the most likely outcome was a comforable biden win and now that that's out the window, all bets are off. biden will probably still win but his chances aren't 90% anymore. this is bad news

Extremely good news for PA

ABC projects New Hampshire for Biden, where he leads by 9 points. A bit smaller than his polling lead (+11) if that's where the state ends up, but not suggestive of the sort of large polling error we seem to see in Florida.

— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) November 4, 2020

there is something weird about trump. he behaves with extreme recklessness, causes extensive damage to many people, and is never held to account. he always gets what he wants.

we're down to the states he *needs* to win and he's off to a bad start in those (arizona lookin good tho)

But... we already knew that was possible and that we wouldn't know the result tonight.

It wasn't our ideal scenario, but some of y'all are misinterpreting the data (except caek)

if trump wins this election -- after acting like an absolute baby throughout the pandemic, showing no concern for anything but his own wounded ego -- i think we need to take seriously that he has sold his soul to the devil or something.

this is outrageous

How is he off to a "bad" start? Early returns don't cone in proportionately with blue and red counties

Alright, I'm done with this. Y'all are ridiculous rn.

Nate Cohn the needle guy now allowing the possibility there is a bug in the NC data or the needle that is making NC look like a bigger trump win that it will turn out to be. He sounds like he doesn’t think it will go biden but that it will be closer than 1.5 points or whatever they have it at right now.

Which is good obviously.

Yep

early returns don't come in proportionately but in many of the states that matter, we are well past early returns

what will be good is when trump is out of our lives

Biden’s got this

florida and NC are both at 93%-94% counted; at that point, what's left are late returns

If the polling error in the Midwest is Trump+2 then I think Biden wins

Tuberville couldn’t even break 70% in Alabama ffs

Everyone would be calmer if we assumed that we won't know before tomorrow.

Y’all know how stupid Alabama is?

All I can be sure of, based on results right now, is that Pittsburgh still hates a jagoff.

I try not to think that people are stupid, Tom

It's quite reasonable to assume, given, well, Trump, and how many of us live in blue districts that he'd lose comfortably if not a landslide. I'm Hispanic and queer; I'm pissed about MDC. The party needs serious thinking about FLorida if Biden wins. But we don't know yet.

I see we're at my least favorite part of election (or any) night: people scolding you for reacting to bad news that you shouldn't have that reaction (and then, generally, the bad news turns out to be true, but somehow the scolding is never rescinded)

Absentee ballots in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, won't be reported until after 5 a.m. ET, officials say

ugh

back in 2016 people were scolded relentlessly for predicting that the next four years would be disastrous and many people would die. still waiting on the apologies for that

Biden’s still going to win though, sorry if that sounds like scolding

I don't get the doom reactions to the weirdest and most discombobulated results rollout in modern history.

The early count appears to have been completed in AZ: 8.7pt lead for Biden. My 3:50am brain reckons Biden needs around 39-40% of today's vote in AZ to get over the line there.

nate silver insisting GA is still in doubt which seems like a fucken stretch to me but who knows at this point

as has been stated, discombobulation benefits Trump, because he and his administration have been trying very hard to cut the counting of votes short, and the only counterweight to that would have been a decisive Biden landslide, which is not going to happen

i'm with you there, katherine. a big thing, for tonight, was whether or not americans would send a decisive rebuke of trump. regardless of how turns out, i'd say, no, we didn't.

ow is he off to a "bad" start? Early returns don't cone in proportionately with blue and red counties

― Lover of Nixon (or LON for short) (Neanderthal), Tuesday, November 3, 2020 10:44 PM (one minute ago)

biden had a 69% percent chance to win florida by 538's forecast, and has now lost pretty decisively. for someone with a very basic grasp of probability this would alter your pretest for a biden win non-negligibly

katherine we have a separate “trump will win” thread

i am hugely disappointed, of course, but not as surprised as i was in 2016

Florida hasn’t been called

biden had a 69% percent chance to win florida by 538's forecast, and has now lost pretty decisively. for someone with a very basic grasp of probability this would alter your pretest for a biden win non-negligibly

― k3vin k., Tuesday, November 3, 2020 10:55 PM bookmarkflaglink

Cute how you just showed up itt after a long absence but uhh its been pretty well established that we're not necessarily seeing this level of polling error in other states.