GET OUT: US politics November 2020

Good reminder. The ease of the Florida win aside, we really have no surprising results so far. Which gives me hope.

can't believe texas got bleak

― it bangs for thee (Simon H.), Tuesday, November 3, 2020 7:06 PM (one minute ago)

es grande

just called: cornyn for re-election to the senate; brilliant move by beto to decide he could get elected president instead

(to be fair this call was not surprising, but the latter part stands)

if last year had gone differently I could have been living in Pennsylvania right now and that is making me really fucking angry at myself

― like, I’m eating an elephant head (katherine), Tuesday, November 3, 2020 9:05 PM (two minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink

I feel you on this, I'm in the same boat but with Georgia

Feels like every one of these death-knell-for-Trump states follows the same pattern: Biden jumps out to an early lead, sometimes large, slowly whittles away to nothing. I know that has to do with what ballots are counted first, but it's dispiriting.

Reminder that if Biden wins Arizona, Wisconsin and Michigan (but not PA) then there’s a real possibility of a tie.

we really have no surprising results so far.

Indiana was polling as a "narrow-win" for Trump. It's an absolute bloodbath.

OK I confess I hadn't paid much attention to Indiana

Which is a Biden win assuming everyone follows the rules

Those Arizona early results are quite good I think.

GIVE ME MORE NEEDLES

With *68%* REPORTING. You can't compare the unfinished Indiana totals to the projections

Geezus

Indiana's been called by AP, which is enough to convince me

Tuberville over Doug Jones.

Indiana will obviously go for trump but but there’s no indication Indiana is better or worse than the polls/predictions based on what we know so far, which is what matters. You can’t have a “blood bath” when you have no idea which counties have reported.

If Biden can take Arizona, he could lose Pennsylvania, Texas, Georgia, North Carolina etc and still narrowly win the presidency.

Yes, Trump has won Indiana. But you can't base the current deficit in Indiana, which is based on 68% returns, and compare it to the forecasted deficit, because likely there are missing Blue votes that are going to tighten the lead. Not enough to win but still

I'm still optimistic because the crucial non-battleground states haven't flipped yet

john king is nervous about Virginia, which the AP already called for Biden

"but where is your previous savage conviction that everyone hates Trump and he couldn't possibly win again"

Has Trump flipped a state yet?

― but also fuck you (unperson), Tuesday, November 3, 2020

are you confident about the results so far?

Biden opens with a big lead in Arizona. It'll come down on Election Day, but this is a tough deficit for Trumphttps://t.co/8bdQchP5zB

— Nate Cohn (@Nate_Cohn) November 4, 2020

are you confident about the results so far?

Yes. Biden is ahead.

Remember, a lot of these states have not yet begun to count their mail-in ballots. Some of the ballots that the USPS didn't deliver were in Florida.

If Biden wins AZ, WI, and MI, what happens?

GUYS. Judge Sullivan's order to Louis DeJoy - which DeJoy defied with impunity - was to deliver all ballots for Lakeland (Tampa) and South Florida (Miami).

SO FLORIDA ISN'T DECIDED YET. HEARING TO SHOW CAUSE IS TOMORROW. pic.twitter.com/UdTh87qbLz

— Eric Garland (@ericgarland) November 4, 2020

tie game

xp

Not gonna believe anything from Eric Garland without some confirmation elsewhere

unperson did you really just post an eric garland tweet

If Biden wins AZ, WI, and MI, what happens?

My math that Arizona could seal it without Pennsylvania etc is just based on Biden taking Wisconsin and Michigan where he's been polling +6, plus a district in Nebraska where he's +11

I used https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/ng-interactive/2020/oct/30/build-your-own-us-election-result-plot-a-win-for-biden-or-trump

NE-2 would put him over.

This is the nightmare though; he may win AZ in the next hour or so, but it doesn't look like any of MI, WI or PA will be clear tonight - and he may be well behind without the mail-in ballots.

NBC calling Arizona as "leads" for Biden and Mark Kelly.

Not gonna believe anything from Eric Garland without some confirmation elsewhere

I can never keep track of who's trustworthy and who's not. Someone I trust retweeted it.

It's true that waiting on WI would be almost as bad as waiting on PA, as the state is basically not functioning any more.

The narrative here fairly dumb overall.

— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) November 4, 2020

Christ, what on earth

We have some good news for Democrats in North Carolina, where a reporting error by Randolph County is padding Trump by about 30k in our estimate there.
They reported both in person (abs one-stop) and absentee mail together, but the needle's still expecting 45k early votes pic.twitter.com/yXc2BAoD2P

— Nate Cohn (@Nate_Cohn) November 4, 2020

This is fucking miserable and won’t get resolved for god knows how long, but I’ll keep drinking that garbage!

xp forest for the trees

I feel comfortable about Wisconsin. I’m very confident in Michigan. If Arizona gets called Biden I’ll feel good again.

I’ll keep drinking that garbage!

lol

what is the dumb narrative Silver is referring to

Trump is probably winning Ohio but if it’s this close I don’t see how he gets Wisconsin. Milwaukee ain’t reporting until 5 am. But I think it’s gonna be heavy Biden and high turnout. I know that city well.

I’ll feel good when Eric Garland is never mentioned on this thread again

the reason I am following returns is the same reason I have to watch when getting a shot -- I need to know everything as it happens

yeah threadban for unperson for that

I’ve reached the “cursing the fuck out of jo jorgensen” phase of election night

— Sarah Cooper (@sarahcpr) November 4, 2020

Blue check brain

this is a pretty shitty start to the night all said, good news would be biden building comfortable leads in some of the battleground states, and he's not doing that. I'm getting drunk

Someone I trust retweeted it.

just fyi you shouldn't trust them

I still do not believe Trump wins Wisconsin.