GET OUT: US politics November 2020

It's becoming clear that the massive early/absentee vote was Dems who are not then voting on election day.

Tracer otm. I don’t want to be a Debbie downer. Biden is probably still the slight favourite. But you should not invest emotional energy in Ohio or Texas (or consider it a bad sign if he loses them!)

well, yes, that has been clear for like weeks

O-H-I-O > Biden on track to flip Wood County, and looking good in Lucas.

— Peter Hamby (@PeterHamby) November 4, 2020

Closer than expected margins in Ohio bodes well for Pennsylvania right?

i honestly cannot believe this shit is happening again

Y'all are really reacting to things not currently being stated even by the people who do this for a living. Could ya slow your roll?

Like seriously take a fuckin' chill pill

Unlike 2016, shit is ass backwards this year with the increase in absentee votes to where you have Nate Silvers going "i have no fuckin idea if Biden's lead is real" in Ohio.

Things are harder to discern right now

caek, i don’t understand why you insist possible polling errors in the SE are correlated with equivalent errors in the midwest

At this point, I can say with certitude I trust betting markets more than pollsters.

Susan Collins is ahead

— Frida Ghitis (@FridaGhitis) November 4, 2020

Nate Silver:

"Again, I just think it’s really tricky to get an overall sense of the state of things across the country. Florida is likely to go for Trump. Beyond that, the big shift to early and mail voting makes it hard to calibrate models and expectations and hard to know what to think. My best guess is that the polling error in Florida may not be as large elsewhere in the country, especially since it seems to have been concentrated among Cuban voters, a group not present in big numbers elsewhere. But it’s hard to know. It feels like we’re waiting for the next big domino to fall ever since we heard that Trump got those good results in Miami-Dade."

speaking of NC, this asshole did in fact win https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Madison_Cawthorn

Real question: how TF has the NYT called Virginia for Biden but CNN has him trailing by a billion votes?

this white supremacist child

Xpost ah great analysis "she's ahead" with no vote total or percent reported great tweet

Xxpost DC

I didn't expect Trump's totals in Miami-Dade but, as I've said repeatedly, I didn't count on Florida.

But Biden improving margins over Clinton among midwestern white voters is a surprise.

just fp’d the alphabet, 4% of the vote is in

Closer than expected margins in Ohio bodes well for Pennsylvania right?

That's a good point and correct (but I'm not following Ohio closely enough to know whether I think Biden's really overperforming there.)

This is just way too confusing when you don't know what ballots are being counted. If you were to watch CNN, you'd think Biden is in good shape right now.

caek, i don’t understand why you insist possible polling errors in the SE are correlated with equivalent errors in the midwest

Biden improving margins over Clinton among midwestern white voters is a surprise

p-e-n-i-s

John King made the same point re Ohio/Pennsylvania.

It really somehow seems like there's a trajectory here that leads to Trump winning the EC while losing the popular vote almost as badly as plausibly possible

hickenlooper flips

hickenflipper

ugh

Cry more, lib.

— Madison Cawthorn (@CawthornforNC) November 4, 2020

For the last time betting markets are meant to generate action, not an actual representation of the actual odds of somebody winning

on the plus side, legal psilocybin in DC looking good

yeah sorry for anyone unfamiliar with this kid

(it's the NC legislature, not national, but he's also like 25)

speaking of NC, this asshole did in fact win https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Madison_Cawthorn

― like, I’m eating an elephant head (katherine), Tuesday, November 3, 2020

ugh

on the plus side, legal psilocybin in DC looking good

― it bangs for thee (Simon H.), Tuesday, November 3, 2020 9:30 PM (one minute ago) bookmarkflaglink

gonna be a lot of it

haven't checked in on the thread for a couple hours but hi

coping with election-watching by having it silent on a second screen #viewfrommycocktail pic.twitter.com/RVD8VMvy6X

— Kit (@awardtour) November 4, 2020

also good: Cori Bush crushing it

xp -- do you have a source on NC being as similar to the Midwest as Florida? having grown up there, that seems unlikely

They both have barbecue

"barbecue"

xp yes on Cori Bush. that will be a bright spot for tonight no matter what

NC has the Outer Banks, the Midwest also has banks.

Not loving the early numbers from AP on Wisconsin and Michigan but, as with everything tonight, no idea where those numbers are coming from yet.

NC has Petey Pablo
Midwest has Tech N9ne

Early numbers from Wisconsin are just gonna be in-person numbers, in no way representative.

What's the cheese vote

the cheese stands alone

I'm off to sleep and not bringing my phone so as not to be tempted. Good luck everyone.

lol eephus

re: Madison Cawthorn: "(it's the NC legislature, not national, but he's also like 25)"

no, for a seat in the US Congress!

those 300,000 votes ballots that USPS couldn't seem to process on time, for mysterious reasons, seem more and more important as the night wears on

xp -- shit, my mistake, even worse