GET OUT: US politics November 2020

if you’re a floridian with a visceral horror of latin american dictators you vote for... donald trump?

LRB's twitter been quite something tonight!

xp

if you’re a floridian with a visceral horror of latin american dictators you vote for... donald trump?

― Li'l Brexit (Tracer Hand), Tuesday, November 3, 2020 9:00 PM (eighteen seconds ago) bookmarkflaglink

hey man, he might be chavez but he’s our chavez

MSNBC showing pretty soft Biden returns trailing Clinton 2016 in blue TX border counties with large Hispanic populations, shades of FL.

if you’re a floridian with a visceral horror of latin american dictators you vote for... donald trump?

― Li'l Brexit (Tracer Hand), Tuesday, November 3, 2020

:)

Bernie was a homerun, Biden is a bunt. He might pull it off but the fact that America wasn't offered the choice between Trumpism and its antithesis, leading to a landslide in favor of unapologetic compassion and solidarity is a tragedy.

— Cody Johnston (@drmistercody) November 4, 2020

^^^^^^ this in particular I can't deal with right now.

so why post?

biden up 1% in texas with half-ish votes in, i think

i may go to bed on that slightly positive note. can’t handle this and the whiskey is starting to take hold

I mean if latino voters shied away from Biden for fear of socialism...but then again maybe it was always going to be an effective smear either way. many earths!

(xp)

Can't read too much into the raw numbers for Texas – early votes likely to be Dem-favourable.

Lol at this:

Fox says 89% likely NC going Biden at the same moment NYT says 76% likely NC going Trump. Just now.

— Casey Mattox (@CaseyMattox_) November 4, 2020

Might switch to Fox.

Good night Tracer!

Texas is going to be close but I really don’t see Biden winning it

the "don't worry, the republican party will lose its votes with demographic changes" narrative was always flawed, and I don't know why it keeps getting hauled out to reassure people

(the same goes, by the way, for age -- have these people spent time around kids? who do they think is going on 4chan?)

somewhat encouraging preliminary signs from ohio thus far...

the GOP can always expand "whiteness" as needed

soon everyone will be white

I’m not quite despairing but it seems like it really is going to come down to PA which will make this a mess

katherine otm

I'm boycotting television until maybe 10 pm Eastern (7 pm local). No reason to subject myself to more angst than strictly necessary. And I don't want to start drinking too early.

OK so what we're looking at right now is probably a 5 or 6 point Biden swing outside of Florida, with Biden performing pretty close to expectations outside of the southwest.

+ If we see an underperformance in FL + GA + NC but overperformance in TX, that's a pretty fun poll error

— G. Elliott Morris (@gelliottmorris) November 4, 2020

hickenlooper flips at least one senate seat

Texas is going to be close but I really don’t see Biden winning it

FOX NEWS PROJECTS: Gardner loses CO senate race

— Sean Langille (@SeanLangille) November 4, 2020

i think it's the senate that's getting me down. god, to be not be able to swing the senate back to the democrats would be a real demoralizing thing.

but good for CO!

if trump overperforms in Ohio then the polls are wrong in different directions

*biden

The polls had biden winning NC, FL, and GA by at least a point or two. It looks like he’s going to lose all three. He’s not going to win Texas or Ohio, which he was losing in the polls.

"If we see an underperformance in FL + GA + NC but overperformance in TX, that's a pretty fun poll error" huh?

this country sucks

I really don't think polling error is uniform across states. Perhaps regionally? Probably has to do with archaic bins like "Hispanic".

Again, look at 2018...huge blue shift, but they still lost Florida

How can you tell he's not winning Ohio? Even the experts are saying they're having a hard time telling what votes (early/absentee) are in

Do you have inside info?

The polling error in Florida is like 6 points. I hope it’s not that bad elsewhere, but it’s at least a couple in North Carolina and Georgia. Hoping for a smaller error in the Midwest seems reasonable. Hoping for an error on the opposite direction so Ohio is competitive seems delusional.

It’s down to Michigan, Wisconsin (both should be fine) and PA (who knows).

Just for some positive news:

BREAKING: THE Fox News Decision Desk can now project that Democrats will retain control of the House of Representatives and expand their majority by at least five seats.

— Lauren Blanchard (@LaurenBlanch12) November 4, 2020

Florida currently looks like a bit of an outlier, because Biden is running ahead of Clinton in complete counties nationwide

Here's a plot of the 100+ counties we believe are done counting votes, other than provisional ballots https://t.co/uDOl3VWPf7 pic.twitter.com/82yiBbiV55

— Kabir K. (@kabir_here) November 4, 2020

I don’t know anything not public. I think it’s correct to call the presidential election a 50:50 toss up at this point. The senate seems like a long shot given that. But who knows any more!

georgia, texas and NC were always “stretch goals” for biden. florida more attainable but still tough. ohio i have never considered a possibility tbh. the wins have to come from elsewhere. i think they will. i believe!

thanks for the good night alba. good night to you. and good night to all of you. rooting for you.

this was helpful re: expected vote shifts: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-results-timing/

It's becoming clear that the massive early/absentee vote was Dems who are not then voting on election day.

Tracer otm. I don’t want to be a Debbie downer. Biden is probably still the slight favourite. But you should not invest emotional energy in Ohio or Texas (or consider it a bad sign if he loses them!)

well, yes, that has been clear for like weeks

O-H-I-O > Biden on track to flip Wood County, and looking good in Lucas.

— Peter Hamby (@PeterHamby) November 4, 2020

Closer than expected margins in Ohio bodes well for Pennsylvania right?

i honestly cannot believe this shit is happening again

Y'all are really reacting to things not currently being stated even by the people who do this for a living. Could ya slow your roll?

Like seriously take a fuckin' chill pill

Unlike 2016, shit is ass backwards this year with the increase in absentee votes to where you have Nate Silvers going "i have no fuckin idea if Biden's lead is real" in Ohio.

Things are harder to discern right now

caek, i don’t understand why you insist possible polling errors in the SE are correlated with equivalent errors in the midwest