GET OUT: US politics November 2020

First tabulations in NC are mostly mail and early; Biden is up by 7-8pts after 65% of the vote, but he needs at least that to weather the on-day reversal. So I guess that's why Trump is slight favourite there atm.

This is not good.

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https://media2.giphy.com/media/zNyBPu5hEFpu/giphy.gif

Don't have nearly enough understanding here to do much more than cling on and wonder if it's over yet. It's like cricket. Good luck US

5.9 point miss from Nate Silver in Florida if NYT real time forecast with 80% in is to be believed pic.twitter.com/dU8ZYhzTyc

— Matt Bruenig (@MattBruenig) November 4, 2020

itv letting farage have untold long minutes of time to just say whatever old crap comes into his head

some hope: Ohio is 50% counted and Biden has a 350k vote advantage. This would be a massive win.

Lol xxp

The polling error looks big, and it’s not Florida only. You can forget Texas imo.

I cannot fucking believe this is happening again

86
538

Don't have nearly enough understanding here to do much more than cling on and wonder if it's over yet. It's like cricket.

Ha, I've literally been texting my friends tonight, "Are you watching the cricket?"

An avowed believer in QAnon was just elected to Congress so while you're waiting for more results you can read my piece on the normalization (or, if you like, normalisation) of antisemitism in US politicshttps://t.co/LtM5kP92Tw

— New Statesman (@NewStatesman) November 4, 2020

NS firing shots

Whoa. Biden set to take Williamson County (Austin, TX suburb). With 95% reporting:

Biden 50.6
Trump 47.4

Trump took this county by about 10% in 2016– this would be a double digit swing.

— Brian Tyler Cohen (@briantylercohen) November 4, 2020

Ohio seems to be what my TL are really clinging onto.

Massive congratulations to Sarah McBride on winning a State Senate seat in Delaware and becoming the first Trans State Senator in US History. pic.twitter.com/CdskjWKmnV

— Simran Jeet Singh (@SikhProf) November 4, 2020

Honestly I would not get excited about Ohio either if we’re dealing with a 3-4 point polling error, which it seems like we are.

I don't get NC. Both CNN and the NYT have 67% in; CNN has Biden up, the NYT Trump.

It’s down to Pennsylvania and I think a senate flip is unlikely.

prop 22 likely to pass, horrible

CNN is reporting counted ballots. Nyt is making predictions about pending ballots.

prop 22 likely to pass, horrible

NYT’s full of shit

Come the fuck on Amerika

America when will you be angelic?

I’m pretty sure that @CoriBush and @AOC will have been two of the lowest income individuals ever elected to the United States Congress. Her victory is a huge deal for working class families all across this country. https://t.co/0joq4Zjmbu pic.twitter.com/npr4gcP3Rn

— Waleed Shahid (@_waleedshahid) November 4, 2020

Another reason to not get hopeful about ohio: "Ballots cast before Election Day will be reported by 8 p.m., and they are likely to be relatively stronger for Mr. Biden. They will be followed by those cast in-person or arriving on Election Day. "

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/upshot/vote-counting-today-polls-election.html

CNN is reporting counted ballots. Nyt is making predictions about pending ballots.

I know, but I was comparing their actual leaders based on 67% of counted ballots...maybe I'm trying to follow too much and got something wrong.

really do not like this simultaneous 2016 and 2000 deja vu

@caek, apologies, turns out I was going by this from yesterday:

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/11/02/uber-lyft-rise-as-investors-expect-california-voters-to-pass-prop-22.html

really do not like how cal cunningham was incapable of keeping his cock in his pants for at least one year

Beginning to see recurring theme of Dems ahead early on early/absentee voting only for Rep election day voting to overcome it.

NC is counting mail and early ballots first - that's why Biden's current 6pt lead isn't necessarily enough.

There is a polling error here, but I don't think the 5.9pt FL miss (538 vs reality) is going to be nationwide. 3-4pt maybe?

Good news: Daniella Levine Cava defeats Trump-ite Esteban "Steve" Bovo to become Miami-Dade County's first female mayor.

There is a polling error here, but I don't think the 5.9pt FL miss (538 vs reality) is going to be nationwide. 3-4pt maybe?

onion tier writing https://t.co/g2QStRzoU5

— seth, himbo of an ungodly & infamous entanglement (@seethsayer) November 4, 2020

I can’t fucking take this

Where the fuck is that 3-4 point swing coming from?

Is Trump leading in Virginia premature? That seems ominous...maybe too early, but I think I heard a quarter of the vote counted.

VA was called for Biden a while ago

Trump taking Virginia is a joke

OH also early-vote counting, hence Biden's current 9pt lead (after 55% in).

Trump won’t win Virginia, NoVA has subsumed Dixie.

Rhode Island, what are you doing?

BREAKING from @AP: In an upset, Republican Barbara Ann Fenton-Fung has ousted Rhode Island's Democratic House speaker, Nicholas Mattiello. #ripolitics

— Bill Kole (@billkole) November 4, 2020

Okay, that's good...must be all rural so far.

Hoping this is more 2018 than 2016. That did not look good for the first couple of hours.

ah, 'the Ohio thing that foreign people vaguely know' prayed in aid https://t.co/eNhtymqY82

— jamie k (@jkbloodtreasure) November 4, 2020

lol the LRB giving some Fred B style shade on US election

if you’re a floridian with a visceral horror of latin american dictators you vote for... donald trump?

LRB's twitter been quite something tonight!

xp

if you’re a floridian with a visceral horror of latin american dictators you vote for... donald trump?

― Li'l Brexit (Tracer Hand), Tuesday, November 3, 2020 9:00 PM (eighteen seconds ago) bookmarkflaglink

hey man, he might be chavez but he’s our chavez

MSNBC showing pretty soft Biden returns trailing Clinton 2016 in blue TX border counties with large Hispanic populations, shades of FL.