GET OUT: US politics November 2020

Much as we hate Senator Mitch McConnell, his win was never really in doubt since McGrath clocked in as his opponent. Booker would have lost, too, but would have at least ignited some enthusiasm among younger Democrats.

I just don't want it to come down to Pennsylvania and god knows what kind of prolonged agony.

Texas and Ohio are looking great for Biden but not sure if it's because the rural vote comes later in those states.

Prolonged agony is our lot in life as Americans.

texas is legit in play, i did not think this was really gonna happen

First call for Florida

BREAKING Donald Trump wins Indiana,@DecisionDeskHQ projects.

— Political Polls (@Politics_Polls) November 4, 2020

oops wrong tweet

congrats to m bison who, as i understand it, is the mod of texas

BREAKING Donald Trump wins Florida,@DecisionDeskHQ pro

— Political Polls (@Politics_Polls) November 4, 2020

Okay I've found a clickable 2016 county map, and in the TX counties I've checked where a large majority of expected votes have been counted according to the Bloomberg graphic, the shift seems to be pretty universally in the Dem direction. Not to get anyone's hopes up or anything, but it does seem somewhat positive.

(In FL it wasn't quite as clear, but the only massive outlier that had moved significantly the other way was Miami-Dade.)

damn

With nearly 700K ballots counted in Georgia, David Perdue's lead is doing 4 percentage points larger than Trump's, which isn't what the Ossoff campaign hoped to see.

— Taniel (@Taniel) November 4, 2020

Dallas County, TX: With 81% in, Biden outperforming Clinton who carried the county 61-35 in 2016. His raw vote total already exceeds her votes by 14%.

— Political Polls (@PpollingNumbers) November 4, 2020

we were all hoping florida could flip so we could go to sleep early, basically

Yep. There are lots of paths for Biden but no really FAST paths.

https://static.wikia.nocookie.net/kingofthehill/images/f/fb/Tumblr_np58n1mVzk1qijacho1_500.png/revision/latest/top-crop/width/300/height/300?cb=20160626082452

8:15, Election Night pic.twitter.com/KTSLFgHAi6

— ian bremmer (@ianbremmer) November 4, 2020

"With nearly 700K ballots counted in Georgia, David Perdue's lead is doing 4 percentage points larger than Trump's, which isn't what the Ossoff campaign hoped to see."

meaning what

yeah, early signs from TX seem good
what a weird thing to say. did not expect that in nov 2020

No, it's Pennsylvania, and Pennsylvania very much oughhta be in Biden's column, but it's gonna take a long time and it's gonna go to court.

we were all hoping florida could flip so we could go to sleep early, basically

― Li'l Brexit (Tracer Hand), Tuesday, November 3, 2020

I was hoping florida would flip so we could all see that Trump is repudiated

xp they'd like to see Perdue's lead be at the same level as trump's or below. they want trump to drag down perdue too

My read on Miami Dade (Alfred feel free to correct, I have no special insight here) is that the influx of Venezuelan and Nicaraguan migrants have augmented the anti-socialist regime sentiment that prevails among the Cubans (and still apparently does, despite dilution among the youth). That, plus synergy between evangelical Latinos and the GOP zeitgeist, combined with better organizing by the GOP.

And Alex Otaola, I guess.

Biden outperforming Hillary in NC all over the map

Cool. Now he needs to outperform Trump and we're good.

I was hoping florida would flip so we could all see that Trump is repudiated

Yes, there will not be repudiation tonight That stings.

🐦[Dallas County, TX: With 81% in, Biden outperforming Clinton who carried the county 61-35 in 2016. His raw vote total already exceeds her votes by 14%.
— Political Polls (@PpollingNumbers) November 4, 2020🕸]🐦

America's wang... still a dick

nyt tilting trump for nc

I wonder why, NC numbers are looking good

nyt tilting trump for nc

My read on Miami Dade (Alfred feel free to correct, I have no special insight here) is that the influx of Venezuelan and Nicaraguan migrants have augmented the anti-socialist regime sentiment that prevails among the Cubans (and still apparently does, despite dilution among the youth). That, plus synergy between evangelical Latinos and the GOP zeitgeist, combined with better organizing by the GOP.

And Alex Otaola, I guess.

― keen reverberations of twee (collardio gelatinous)

That's about right. I'm in a Cuban Democratic group, and we know what's missing.

All three needles on that NYT page are all tilting red now, closing that tab and putting faith in the midwest and the southwest.

Yeah this is really looking like a repeat of 2016 thus far but I do somehow have faith in the Midwest

I wonder why, NC numbers are looking good

― frogbs, Wednesday, 4 November 2020 01:27 (one minute ago) bookmarkflaglink

assume waiting on rural numbers

xpost

Ian Bremmer is kind of awful isn't he.

just checked the NC needle and it says 58% Biden

Yikes

Hispanic voters per *early* 2020 exit polls:

Florida:
2016: Clinton +27
2020: Biden +8

Georgia:
2016: Clinton +40
2020: Biden +25

Ohio:
2016: Clinton +41
2020: Biden +24

— Ryan Struyk (@ryanstruyk) November 4, 2020

America, please tow Florida out into the pacific so it either a) sinks or b) reports after Hawaii.

NYT's infernal needle now tilting to Trump in North Carolina too

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/11/03/us/elections/forecast-president.html

as an aside: the electoral college is infuriating to the point of nausea

sorry, that was just posted

xpost

First tabulations in NC are mostly mail and early; Biden is up by 7-8pts after 65% of the vote, but he needs at least that to weather the on-day reversal. So I guess that's why Trump is slight favourite there atm.

This is not good.

xxxxx-post
https://media2.giphy.com/media/zNyBPu5hEFpu/giphy.gif

Don't have nearly enough understanding here to do much more than cling on and wonder if it's over yet. It's like cricket. Good luck US

5.9 point miss from Nate Silver in Florida if NYT real time forecast with 80% in is to be believed pic.twitter.com/dU8ZYhzTyc

— Matt Bruenig (@MattBruenig) November 4, 2020

itv letting farage have untold long minutes of time to just say whatever old crap comes into his head

some hope: Ohio is 50% counted and Biden has a 350k vote advantage. This would be a massive win.

Lol xxp

The polling error looks big, and it’s not Florida only. You can forget Texas imo.

I cannot fucking believe this is happening again