GET OUT: US politics November 2020

<3

Figure on a long night and possibly a long week if the blue wave isn't massive.

Either the needle is very wrong or Florida is pretty much a lost cause. I wouldn’t invest too much emotional energy in it.

NYT is calling FL for Trump

More worrying is they're now forecasting a narrow Trump victory in NC as well (small sample ~5%)

Sorry, ^^^ in GA not NC.

fuck

gonna be okay. hang tight.

FYI, fuck Trump.

let’s hold hands and promise not to spiral yet

Realizing with a pretty major jolt that anything less than a full-on landslide is going to offend me to the deepest level, even if Biden pulls it out.

yeah

I was thinking that too

whoa whoa whoa on NC, it's too early to say that.

a single whoa on FL

Fuck

what is everyone saying fuck for?

Yeah where is the NYT calling Florida for Trump? Wtf?

xp it just sounds cool

not to karl rove this, but FL is not called yet. and NC is tilting toward biden I think?

Biden wins 0, Trump wins 3 BEST GUESS
Either candidate could win. And it could take days or longer to know.
31%
Biden wins 1, Trump wins 2 BEST GUESS
A Biden win is likely. Trump needs the Midwest to keep his chances alive.
38%
Biden wins 2, Trump wins 1 BEST GUESS
A decisive Biden win is likely. Trump needs a big surprise win to hang on.
31%
Biden wins 3, Trump wins 0 BEST GUESS
A blowout Biden win is likely. Texas and Ohio may be in play.
<5%

If he gets NC, we ok.

Odds tighter than i like but still a 69% chance

That's from Upshot and it's updating in real time

xp - nice

i like those chances, almost 7 out of 10 times

the NYT Needle has Trump at >95% for Florida

NOV. 3, 7:47 PM
In four Indiana counties that the NYT says are more than 98 percent reported — Wabash, Cass, Martin and Wells — Trump is winning, but by considerably smaller margins than in 2016. So it’s hard to tell if any polling overperformance in Florida would translate to the Midwest.

It's remarkable. If Biden even had a bad night in Miami, he's still winning Florida easily. But he's having a disastrous night in Miami https://t.co/8pQs1NtrfC

— Helmut Norpoth (@lib_crusher) November 4, 2020

early ohio numbers are have biden way overperforming Clinton, really don't think anyone should flipping their lids yet

Yeah not getting Florida really sucks but I don’t think we need it

surely the fear is more if the same deviation polling is reflected elsewhere

easy to say that now!

Florida is over. Georgia is not looking good. Whatever.

The thing that worries me is the size of the polling error implied by those results, even given Florida’s unusual demographics.

NYT probability in 3 key states (warning needles, but no jitter this time):

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/11/03/us/elections/forecast-president.html

I am not trying to spin but want to remind us of one thing -2018.

It ended well, but remember how doom and gloom the thread was early on?

Bad results had us freaking out. And at one point, NYT's stupid fucking needle showed that Republicans were slightly favored to retain the House.

I was at a dress rehearsal playing Samuel Byck in Assassins at i went on stage and legitimate tears flowing down my face.

I came offstage, the needle had already moved back to Dem. We won 40 seats.

Florida looks lost but we always called it an Albatross. NYT thinks if he wins one of the three, it's still a likely Biden win.

It's not even saying he's doomed if he loses all three. It's a long might, lets be here for each other and we'll get through it.

What we know so far:

* Trump looks good in Florida.
* Beyond that... not much, I'd say, since Trump's overperformance vs. polls/2016 in Florida looks mostly to be concentrated among Cubans, which may not tell us much about other states.

— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) November 4, 2020

I'll stop saying fuck

I'm sick to my stomach and I don't even live there any more. No work is getting done today.

This seems to be the conventional wisdom but I’m letting myself worry tbqh

Seemingly everything is going to plan, with the exception of one massive county.

— Ryan Brune (@BruneElections) November 4, 2020

Neanderthal otm

Ohio is tracking better for Biden than anticipated, but granted it's essentially just Columbus so far.

Dude I'd be worried if any of us weren't worried.

This week has turned my bowel movements into congealed globules of abject misery

florida being the first state to put results out is the classic horror movie mistake of showing your monster in the first reel

I'm sick to my stomach and I don't even live there any more. No work is getting done today.

― American Fear of Scampos (Ed), woensdag 4 november 2020 1:57 (nineteen seconds ago) bookmarkflaglink

Catch the Vuelta ITT replay and you'll be fine Ed!

Stop watching cnn

The CNN coverage of the Florida situation is terrible; they keep emphasizing how close the statewide vote count is while ignoring the fact that none of the Panhandle is in yet. Biden’s done there.

NYT needle ftw.

— Matthew Yglesias (@mattyglesias) November 4, 2020

Has NC actually reported any votes yet?

I would like to beat Matty Y with a baseball bat

Their polling hours are extended another 15 right?

fuck florida, we’re going to stomp trump’s teeth into the sidewalk. we’re going to grind him into the earth

Idk what Florida says bc most polls had that very close

Why is it even close at all

xp: Matty Y is kinda discredited forever with me for his push for the US to grow past 1 B to keep up with the Chinas.

Florida is a weird state. We shouldn't write off the inference from between-state correlations, but in fully-reporting counties from the other states, I'm seeing a 3 point average shift toward Biden. Seems important to note re: the Midwest.

— G. Elliott Morris (@gelliottmorris) November 4, 2020