GET OUT: US politics November 2020

Ok done with work and cracking open a 2xIPA

if Duval falls to the Antifa hordes I feel like FL is in the bag

My son was very young - around two years old - when Obama was running the first time.

I remember (me or my wife) asking him, around the time of the general election, who do we want to see win? And him shouting "OBAMA!" Just thinking about that I get misty-eyed.

These photos via @stltoday are quite something: Voters infected with Covid-19 cast their ballots with the help of election staffers covered in PPE.

Full gallery: https://t.co/UTN8sIQZb1 pic.twitter.com/BRJwmOUDef

— Mike Baker (@ByMikeBaker) November 3, 2020

To SA, didn’t Atlanta hit 90% of its 2016 total in early voting?

― jack (unobtrusive ambient poll participant), Tuesday, November 3, 2020 3:55 PM (one minute ago) bookmarkflaglink

More, in fact:

Even before the polls opened Tuesday, the turnout in Fulton County and much of the Atlanta metropolitan area had exceeded the entire vote in the 2016 presidential election.

seems like good news in Florida:

GOP +1.8% on turnout by party registration so far in Florida. Will probably get up to +2.0% by the end of the night though the pace of GOP gains has really slowed down. https://t.co/QDqCkWSjMc

— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) November 3, 2020

Earlier I estimated that GOP +3.5% was roughly the breakeven point (i.e. Trump favored if above that number, otherwise Biden) based on what most polls show is an edge for Biden among independents, but that's a fairly rough estimate.https://t.co/rcHTbrGABn

— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) November 3, 2020

Fuck, the Animal Collective vote is gonna wreck it all

One thing that does seem clear in the Election Day numbers is that the GOP vote came out early but the vote is becoming less Republican (and more indie) over the course of the day.

— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) November 3, 2020

Yes Georgia was at 95% of 2016 total before today, but even with that in mind, they were expecting much more today.

My precinct is probably 99% democrat though so it kinda makes sense to me they would all vote early. DNC operative being really surprised is weird though.

There are more official poll watchers than voters here for crying out loud

maybe they're just voting when you're not looking

lol

Was discharged from hospital last night, was able to vote curbside right after the poll opened in my suburban hometown this morning (I'm not moving so good--leg surgery).

That improved an so far awful (for me) day.

Great to hear that C. Grisso/McCain.

Lol, Neanderthal.

Hope you have a smooth recovery, Grisso! Also, what are you DOING to fleetwood mac??

Get well soon, C. Grisso/McCain!

It’s been 4 years and I’m still thinking about the Trump cake that looked like he thought he was human but suddenly realized he was a cake as he was being wheeled into a room where people would eat him. pic.twitter.com/MVs1C1jUlm

— Parker Molloy (@ParkerMolloy) November 3, 2020

GAPDY 2020

eek

Music to the ears of reporters on deadline by @MDCElections: "By 7:30 p.m. we'll know how over one million registered voters in Miami-Dade voted."

— David Smiley (@NewsbySmiley) November 3, 2020

flor flor flor flor FLOR i dahhh

for all nate silver's sins, i think he's generally a pretty conservative person about speculating about results. with that in mind:

GOP +1.8% on turnout by party registration so far in Florida. Will probably get up to +2.0% by the end of the night though the pace of GOP gains has really slowed down. https://t.co/QDqCkWSjMc

— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) November 3, 2020

Earlier I estimated that GOP +3.5% was roughly the breakeven point (i.e. Trump favored if above that number, otherwise Biden) based on what most polls show is an edge for Biden among independents, but that's a fairly rough estimate.https://t.co/rcHTbrGABn

— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) November 3, 2020

I think we've all been doing splendidly at keeping incipient panic at bay today, at least in our posting. Let's continue to buck one another up as we await actual vote counts, as opposed to whispers and hints. One bright spot is the apparent lack of voter intimidation horror stories so far. They tend to spread rapidly on the wings of tweets these days.

i'm really going all in on like a mellowed out weekday holiday at home vibe - worked on some photos for a couple hours, currently diving into some overdue cleaning of recently-acquired records while listening to some stuff that's been in the queue for ages. basically pretending "what election?" until at least idk 8 or 9, or whenever my boo decides it's time to watch the news.

In 2016 Republicans ended with a 0.6% turnout advantage in #Florida

Just wait until you see what it is this time pic.twitter.com/UvQ4ZgyfRT

— Marco Rubio (@marcorubio) November 3, 2020

who's going to tell him about the independent voters?

someone on Rubio's staff uses CorelDRAW graphics from 1995.

he really does tweet like a 72 year old

Who’s gonna tell him that is in fact a blue wave

Lmao. (Ignore exit polls, they’re messed up this year. But this is nice.)

Fox News Exit Poll

Change to a government-run health care plan

Favor 72%
Oppose 29% pic.twitter.com/9220tD7lms

— Political Polls (@PpollingNumbers) November 3, 2020

at times like these i find my way back to ilx

welcome back 🙂

Voted old school, in person. Record breaking warm day in MN, beautiful walk to my polling place, no line. My plan is to have a few beers, listen to records, and only occasionally glance at the TV.

Just want to add to the headcount of thread lurkers.

I'm a Brit and have no need/right to telegraph anything robust here, I find it difficult to rise above barely incoherent rage when I think of that exhausting, malfeasant sack of shit anyway.

However, I gotta say that like a few others, I come to these threads as a way of catching up with what's going on and have been doing so since 2016, always praying that he'd someday shoot himself in the arse so fantastically that he'd be locked up forever.

Some of you guys say that you're winging it, but I feel like it's the only place I can stand to visit to get information.

So, I thank you for all the tweet/article curation and patient explanations and I hope with all my heart that it finally ends today.

xxp thank you ums

we're having a two household election watching shindig this eve, but i'm going to try to follow ilx as well

Lurkers buoying things today

Fox ran a whole string of those polls and they...did not get the results they were expecting, I think.

lol these fox news voter polls pic.twitter.com/NoiNjPiqOH

— John Whitehouse (@existentialfish) November 3, 2020

true but the CNN and AP and Fox early exit polls are all completely dissimilar from each other, which tells you how much you should pay attention to early exits.

kinda like you were a kid and were announcing your own basketball game and kept shooting and going "and he NAILS IT AT THE BUZ-", then watched another airball soar over the hoop, rinse repeat

New: Biden camp internals show “strong” numbers in WI, MI, NC, GA, PA, AZ & NE-2. FL is true toss-up, senior adviser tells @NorahODonnell. Source says not seeing “red tide of low-propensity voters” for Trump. Dem says they are over-performing in WI, NC and GA. @cbsnews

— Bo Erickson CBS (@BoKnowsNews) November 3, 2020

I would like to extend my best wishes to all, even the haters and lurkers, on this special date

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/El7yUgKX0AA4ysf?format=jpg&name=medium

that'll keep me in good spirits until i get home thanks for posting that one xp

oh florida

AP has a breakdown of who's voting.

https://www.npr.org/2020/11/03/929478378/understanding-the-2020-electorate-ap-votecast-survey

One important note: during the 2018 midterms, 4% more women than men voted. This year, they're up by 7%.

"Biden camp internals show “strong” numbers in WI, MI, NC, GA, PA, AZ & NE-2. FL is true toss-up"

i could have told them exactly that by looking at 538, but thanks for the scoop, bo.

I've opened my first beer, because it's after 5 and I don't have to drive anyone around anymore. It's a pretty strong triple IPA, though, so some chance it's my only beer!

Because why else are we here so

From 4pm to 6pm, the partisan split in Broward was D43/R22/I35 (D+21). A very big blue shift over the course of the day. https://t.co/BwQGJhsT7c

— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) November 3, 2020

suck on my partisan shift, Donnie

I just spoke with 28yr-old Miamian Alex Garcia. He said he woke up today thinking he was going to vote for Trump BUT he changed his mind at the voting booth. He ended up picking Biden to “go back to normal.”

“I just want my Instagram to be about me again, and how good I look”

— Lautaro Grinspan (@lautarogrinspan) November 3, 2020

I'm taking a partial break from ILX 'cause work beckons but tonight's the night so I just wanted to say: good luck, USA.

xpost That is everything we deserve.

thanks alex

listening to AM Gold compilations 1966 onwards to fend off bad vibes

thx to all you magical polling stats nerds for keeping things afloat itt