GET OUT: US politics November 2020

lol I just realize I said “born as the Obama years began” when in fact I meant as his second term began.

xpost same here. My son turned two a few days before Trump won. I was convinced he was going to get us into a nuclear war.

who has the concern abput PA turnout? Trump or Biden?

that would be very prodigious for a two-year-old xp

gotta be Trump, right?

yeah I read further into the tweet post, it's Tump

My son turned two a couple weeks later and was asleep while we were out on the deck chain smoking (we we were like one per month people normally) and figuring how far we were from the Canadian border and if we were going to buy a gun etc

*Trupm

An Arlingtonian shows President Trump a finger as his motorcade makes it’s way back to the White House after a stop at their campaign headquarters in Rosslyn. pic.twitter.com/q3TfGnSusn

— Jay Westcott (@jwestcottphoto) November 3, 2020

FUCK u know who i mean, Il Dukey

so jealous of that woman who got to flip donald the bird on election day

xxxxxxp given that Trump won PA in 2016, partly due to lower Philadelphia turnout, it's concerning for Dems

Oh boy, Biden now off the leash and going full Cornpop. The Green Mile, lifeguarding, etc.

His handlers clealy taking a well-earned rest.

Is that Election Day turnout, or are they factoring in early/absentee voting? Election Day turnout being lower due to all the early voters would make sense.

90% of eligible voters registered to vote in Philly. Unless a lot of people just decided to register and not do anything about it, I somehow doubt that these fears are founded on anything except panic.

And re: that Montco tweet above, it went like 73% for Hillary, right? I haven't seen a single Trump sign in Montco while driving to visit my parents, buy weed, etc.

This feels like a take that will age well.

Worth keeping in mind with respect to turnout: Beyond the fact that Democrats may well have exhausted their vote in the early voting/mail-in camp, would bet heavily that more registered Ds vote for Donald Trump than registered Rs vote for Joe Biden

— Benjamin Weingarten (@bhweingarten) November 3, 2020

Montgomery County 2016:

Dem - HILLARY CLINTON/TIM KAINE 256,082 58.91%
Rep - DONALD J TRUMP/MICHAEL R PENCE 162,731 37.44%

xp if he means registered Dickbags, then yes

He just released a book about Ilhan Omar called "American Ingrate"

lovely

Good Florida news:

Almost 4.5 hours later, the Dem lead in Duval is >12,500 votes. GOPs are not closing the gap fast enough here to produce the result they need.*

*this is one county, there are other counties in Florida, and elsewhere in the United States. https://t.co/J5gqQi3Q9U

— Tom Bonier (@tbonier) November 3, 2020

Duval County = Jacksonville, one of the few red cities in the country but less and less so. The GOP hasn't closed the gap yet.

But there are just more Democrats than Republicans, period.

As another supreme lurker that gets a lot of valuable information from this thread, I thought I could pass along some info from the ground. I’m a poll worker in Atlanta and turnout is way way down. Only ~300 votes in my precinct that usually does 1500. The DNC person and poll manager here are both saying turnout is way down everywhere in Atlanta what what they’ve been hearing today. Much less than expected. They’re flabbergasted!

DNC person doesn’t know if it’s good or bad.

*this is one county, there are other counties in Florida, and elsewhere in the United States.

lmao

What’s their early vote like?

guys I have it on authority from Wayne Allyn Root that Trump just won both 2020's and 2024's re-elections

like 50% of the (pointless) voting analysis i see is about florida, so it's important to bear this in mind:

There's this 2018 dynamic happening where Florida is so transparent about its voting data as the election is happening,** and so quick at counting votes, that all expectations & analysis are being primed through it. A reminder of how much it deviated from the country in 2018.

— Taniel (@Taniel) November 3, 2020

the florida needle based on actual votes will be up around 7:30-8pm eastern.

we're a mutant state, everybody look away, save yourselves

You guys will sink beneath the waves soon enough.

if Biden loses Arizona or NC I will start to panic a little. Florida has always been weird. but I do think if Trump wins there it's a sign that his pandemic handling isn't gonna hurt him as much as we thought.

i'm seeing nothing that corroborates anything about concern regarding Philly turnout outside of that tweet btw.

everything i'm reading saying turnout is heavy in the region. *shrug*

NC we ain't gonna know much about for a while.

Lines out the door at all the polling places in my heavily Black and progressive neighborhood.

according to CNN, Trump has stated he doesn't have a concession speech.

Or an acceptance speech.

I...uhh...what?

To SA, didn’t Atlanta hit 90% of its 2016 total in early voting?

what speech DID he prepare?

If Biden wins Florida, it will shock me because #Florida.

Ok done with work and cracking open a 2xIPA

if Duval falls to the Antifa hordes I feel like FL is in the bag

My son was very young - around two years old - when Obama was running the first time.

I remember (me or my wife) asking him, around the time of the general election, who do we want to see win? And him shouting "OBAMA!" Just thinking about that I get misty-eyed.

These photos via @stltoday are quite something: Voters infected with Covid-19 cast their ballots with the help of election staffers covered in PPE.

Full gallery: https://t.co/UTN8sIQZb1 pic.twitter.com/BRJwmOUDef

— Mike Baker (@ByMikeBaker) November 3, 2020

To SA, didn’t Atlanta hit 90% of its 2016 total in early voting?

― jack (unobtrusive ambient poll participant), Tuesday, November 3, 2020 3:55 PM (one minute ago) bookmarkflaglink

More, in fact:

Even before the polls opened Tuesday, the turnout in Fulton County and much of the Atlanta metropolitan area had exceeded the entire vote in the 2016 presidential election.

seems like good news in Florida:

GOP +1.8% on turnout by party registration so far in Florida. Will probably get up to +2.0% by the end of the night though the pace of GOP gains has really slowed down. https://t.co/QDqCkWSjMc

— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) November 3, 2020

Earlier I estimated that GOP +3.5% was roughly the breakeven point (i.e. Trump favored if above that number, otherwise Biden) based on what most polls show is an edge for Biden among independents, but that's a fairly rough estimate.https://t.co/rcHTbrGABn

— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) November 3, 2020

Fuck, the Animal Collective vote is gonna wreck it all

One thing that does seem clear in the Election Day numbers is that the GOP vote came out early but the vote is becoming less Republican (and more indie) over the course of the day.

— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) November 3, 2020

Yes Georgia was at 95% of 2016 total before today, but even with that in mind, they were expecting much more today.

My precinct is probably 99% democrat though so it kinda makes sense to me they would all vote early. DNC operative being really surprised is weird though.

There are more official poll watchers than voters here for crying out loud

maybe they're just voting when you're not looking

lol