GET OUT: US politics November 2020

Canvassing in Lancaster County PA. Beautiful sunny morning.

when I start roasting the bird

what's this code for?

I was just like “who administers an exam like an AMA?”

lol

When LSAT meets Reddit

Won't be staying up, as I've stayed up the last two nights on deadline and am lol British. I'm reasonably confident Biden will win, though not so confident that we'll know tomorrow. But I have to be honest, if Trump wins again, or even "wins"... I don't really know what happens after that, or how to maintain whatever sliver of optimism and hope I've been cradling the last four years.

Chipping in as another longtime lurker as well. I have very much appreciated this community's running commentary and analysis on the broken state of US politics (and on everything else, of course).

Due to a work assignment, about a year ago, I moved to NE PA -- my specific portion, solidly Trump country. (Behind enemy lines...) I handed in my absentee ballot about a week ago.

Praying for a Biden win; I know it'll probably take weeks to sort out.

Feel like this was the last time I enjoyed being an American.

My brother had a 3 hour line in Manhattan and a special visitor #Trump #ElectionDay #voteIRL #Clinton pic.twitter.com/JAH8wmAOYA

— Josh (@joshmbarn) November 8, 2016

Either that moment or when they wheeled out that cake (that cursed the election.)

gonna try to spend the day at the pottery studio and ignore the early returns as best i can. let's get this fucker outta here.

― Fuck the NRA (ulysses), Tuesday, November 3, 2020 7:58 AM (one hour ago) bookmarkflaglink

better than spending the rest of the day at the burrito stall.

here's a reason for optimism - typically for a re-election bid, the incumbent's approval rating correlates very strongly with their vote share. Trump is unique in American history in that he is the only president to never crack a 50% approval rating - he's pretty much sat at 44% his entire term. meaning you can expect him to win about 44% of the vote, in which case he's going to get crushed - 46% got him over the finish line in 2016, but that was with strong 3rd party support, which doesn't exist this year (if Clinton had won 20% of Gary Johnson's vote in WI, she would've taken the state). if Trump gets 44% then Biden's getting 54% and this thing will be over before midnight.

YER GONNA LOSE!

how are these people gonna react

On Fox News, Kayleigh McEnany just predicted a Trump landslide. Says Trump will win NV and MN. Just so you know what Fox viewers are expecting.

— Stuart Rothenberg (@StuPolitics) November 3, 2020

Does Kayleigh really believe that?

Kayleigh

Kay leigh

https://www.salon.com/2020/11/03/trumps-top-campaign-strategist-jason-miller-is-hiding-payments-from-steve-bannon/

Remember that unskewedpolls website? Whatever happened to those folks? Some fun on the 2012 threads with their projections of a crushing Romney win. Obama holding on to NJ by a point I seem to remember (“this will shock some people”).

Longtime lurker, former slacker (miss u guys but I couldn’t keep up). Looking forward to spending the day obsessively refreshing this thread and getting my news from you generous posters. Wouldn’t want it any other way. I will probably start drinking at some point as well so cheers all, stay safe and healthy, and let’s all get through this together. <3

Canadian radio had Alex Castellanos on this morning (one of those who, during Trump's tenure, has graduated from creepy Republican flak to generically boring old-fashioned Republican flak--if you can forget he was behind Bush's "Hands" ad). Thought he framed tonight in a way that made sense: Florida, North Carolina, Arizona, and Georgia should all come in pretty quickly. If Biden wins even one of those, he'll win.

If you're looking for music to distract you from the stress of today, try this:

POLLHALA: The People's Pop Hall of Fame

For the record, I will be roasting an actual duck this evening. No metaphor there.

And as for AMA, well, I took a class on AMA style so I could leave adjunct life and get some sweet pharmaceutical company money by editing their copy for them. The American Medical Association style is quite, uh, specific. So, I quiz myself.

Is *that* a metaphor?

Voted in 54 minutes this morning. Longest it's ever taken at my polling place but not bad, considering. All the unmasked were white and male.

Y'all must think a lot of my poetry if you think I can keep up this many extended metaphors.

phwoar

i've heard you can keep it up all night, table

i'm talking about fucking

is that a metaphor?

fucking is a metaphor for table's extended metaphors

Good luck, or rather, go get'em USA!

“this will shock some people”

IIRC, it was "This will surprise many." I still mumble that sentence to myself sometimes when I see predictions that seem really off.

I took a class on AMA style so I could leave adjunct life and get some sweet pharmaceutical company money by editing their copy for them. The American Medical Association style is quite, uh, specific. So, I quiz myself.

― healthy cocaine off perfect butts (the table is the table)

Is *that* a metaphor?

― Josh in Chicago

When I think about style, I quiz myself

Whatever happens, don't ever forget this: Trump never had majority support in this country. There's been a durable anti-Trump majority since Day 1.

If Biden wins, it will be time to update the "Emerging Democratic Majority" thesis. I spoke to its author:https://t.co/6WFiTyjsdF

— Greg Sargent (@ThePlumLineGS) November 3, 2020

Oh yes, "this will surprise many". Bless 'em. Their website was like the fake league tables I used to make when I was a kid - let's re-imagine 1980-81, but this time Everton score an extra goal every other game. There's a temptation to do that with that (excellent) Cook Report swingometer upthread. What if non-college whites stay home? Etc.

Eight (!) people in line ahead of me at my western MA farm-town polling location. A relative swarm.

Voted my conscience.

The suggestion in the replies that he mixed up India and Iran seems very likely

Hindutva twitter melting down over this https://t.co/oNoUtUn0bF

— Helmut Norpoth (@lib_crusher) November 3, 2020

this is looking good but i was just reflecting this morning about how crushed i am by years of debt and falling behind financially, never really got off the ground after 2008, lots of clawing my way out of a hole, two hands up, one slide down. my profession is getting swallowed up whole, like many others out there. it's made me feel like i'm aging faster than i should. with biden winning this that's probably not going to change at all. the same growth curves are going to support rich people and the stock market and make it harder for me to breathe in my shithole conservative city. all the poor are going to stay poor. my landlord/pm company is raising rent in 2021 for fucks sake. and no one gives a shit. no one's going to do anything about it. no one at least where i live even believes in class. class consciousness - you might as well be talking alien to people. it doesn't exist. you're poor because you suck, rich because you're great. catastrophic failure of everything, social services, education, you name it. biden might win and even if the dems take control of the senate i have very little faith they're going to do any more bailouts or do anything to significantly reverse course for the majority of people who are struggling to make ends meet. they just don't believe in helping people. but i mean ok, well-off people don't have to feel embarrassed by the president anymore so that's cool. and maybe there will be like a ghost of symbolism projected toward the "working class" but there isn't going to be any real, material change. i'm so incredibly disillusioned.

virtual hugs, map. Sympathy to you and yours, I can totally relate to that "one step up, two steps back" feeling. I do hope things get better in some way.

i def feel you map

i am likely going to pour myself into mutual aid work bc there is very little i can do to alter the towering superstructure except help my neighbor and scream about it as often as i can

Hugs, map.

That really sucks, map, I'm sorry, I do want to say that if Biden wins and there's a Dem Congress there will 100% be more bailouts but that's not structural change. (Biden prez + GOP Senate will mean Mitch McConnell doing everything he can to keep you and millions of others from getting even short-term relief with the intent of maximizing public misery until 2022 midterms)

maps what's your profession and where do you live? just curious

i'll take your hugs but really would you slip me $100s while you're at it? j/k

i'm an archivist and i live in slc

totally sympathetic and I know Dems getting the trifecta ain't gonna improve things overnight. but if you want the body to heal, you have to excise the cancer first.

yah i get that. part of my frustration is also living in a very conservative state and feeling like there's no way out. anyway

good post, map. the longer one, but i liked the $100 one too. :)

hehe

#Final @TheEconomist Forecast:

Chance of winning:
Biden 97%
Trump 3%

Estimated electoral votes:
Biden 356
Trump 182https://t.co/7qDemmlWU0 pic.twitter.com/lBR06i6AmK

— Political Polls (@PpollingNumbers) November 3, 2020