rolling “Trump is gonna win” containment thread

Trump instantly won 30+ million votes the moment an R appeared before his name on the ballot.

I'm really pessimistic about what a 2nd Trump term is gonna bring.

Chaos, dysfunction, authoritarianism, more blatant racism and violence toward BIPOC, more pandering to the christian right, further erosion of income for everyone below the median, national wealth migrating ever faster to the 0.1%, rapid worsening of the homeless crisis. You know, the usual.

I really didn't expect him to hold a 45% approval rating for basically his whole presidency. The idea that nearly one out of every 2 people still approves of him is grotesque

I'm not pessimistic about what a second Trump term would bring. More like apocalyptic. It's the end of the US as we know it.

And no, I don't feel fine, thankyouverymuch.

You guys are leaving out that Trump dramatically reduced immigration to the US, which was one of his big selling points.

.....lenny bruce is not afraid

because "fuck you buddy, I got mine and I intend to keep it" is a dominant political philosophy of our era

Usually, when a society gets socially-beneficial public works and programmes, they recognise their value and are loath to give them up. I was massively shook (and remain so tbh) on the day of the Brexit vote, in the midst of a decade of austerity cuts, bcz it was suddenly apparent that the Murdoch/Zuck/VC diminution of media had succeeded enough that people could now be sold on their own immiseration, as long as other cunce were suffering too. (hey guess what happened in the next few EL elections!)

The American project is such that its inherent inclusiveness and optimism and self-regard can be restored, if only they are fulfilled. Trumpism (as a force big enough to entirely eradicate the GOP in a single year) is fueled by people who felt and had been failed by the system. Their herd mentality could be channeled into positivity, if they are given a collective identity of fulfilment (instead of ill-focused resentment and rage).

Under a Joe Biden philosophy, further hobbled by the pandemic-hastened and oligarch-enabled collapse of the economy, this is not especially likely. BUT "I got mine" can be translated into a collective motto, if only the populace are actually given theirs.

The idea that nearly one out of every 2 people still approves of him is grotesque

As someone said upthread, this is more brand recognition than active approval.

Until COVID hit, most people's day to day life wasn't noticeably different from the Obama years to the Trump years. There was no 2008 crash or new war, Trump's rhetoric was only marginally more crass than Reagan or Bush II but there wasn't a statistical increase in violence. There was no event to drive his approval below his party floor.

upthread

or #onethread

I would argue that marginalized groups probably felt a fuck-ton less safe, but 2016 was a fairly miserable year leading up to the election (Pulse et al) so it is true that misery didn't begin with Trump.

COVID is exactly why, while everybody was watching the Bernie-Hillary race, I kept watching Trump's, begging for someone to unseat him. I thought he had no chance at the time, but I didn't even want him to have the opportunity as his ineptitude was going to get us killed. and now it has, largely. I didn't forsee a pandemic, no, but it shouldn't have been a shock that when a disaster arose that required real leadership, he was going to fail miserably.

(not that I don't think Ted Cruz would have done, well, ANY better - Rubio on the other hand probably would have paid lip service at least to Fauci).

err not that I think Ted Cruz would have done better - I think he would have been just as bad cos he's worse in some ways in that he's only pretending to be stupid whereas Trump actually is

that's the insane part though - it is a verifiable fact that America getting absolutely crushed by Covid is a direct result of Donald Trump's breathtaking ignorance and disregard for human life. the main reason you haven't been able to see your family or friends or go to a bar or send your kids to school right now is because of this dumb motherfucker not only stripping away our action plan against this particular thing but also actively spreading misinformation and in recent weeks doing all he can to spread this virus as quickly as possible. and none of it has changed a thing!! several times this week he has literally left his supporters stranded miles away from their cars (landing several people in the hospital) and our collective reaction is to just shrug our shoulders and say "hah, that's Trump for ya". is there a single other politician whose career wouldn't have ended right there? like Christie still takes shit for Bridgegate (as he should!!) but when it comes to Trump, both sides have just accepted that he's a selfish asshole, and yet only one side recognizes that as a bad thing??

xp - I disagree, I think Cruz would've done better. maybe not remarkably so but even speeding up our disastrously slow response by a week would have saved tens of thousands of lives

by the way this is why I get obsessed with dumb shit like hating on the Dilbert guy, I just cannot wrap my head around people who have the awareness to accurately label Trump as a liar and a con man, or at least describe them that way without using those specific terms, and then turn around and say "you know, that's actually what America needs". they're even dumber than the rally crowd.

"I'm voting for Trump because I hate bullies" woulda been a terrific self-own had Trump not actually won.

Scott Adams should dissolve himself in a vat of acid

Someday someone will unpick the Trumpian 'oooh, con me, daddy! con me hard!' mentality such that it makes one iota of sense to me and my direct lived experience of human beings but that day has not yet come.

hope he walks out on stage to claim fake victory and Redd Foxes his way off this mortal coil

If trump wins again he’s going to immediately start only-somewhat-jokingly harping on the idea that he deserves a third term, if only so he can have a halfway plausible reason to continue doing the rallies. If he loses then obviously he’s just going to start campaigning for 2024

Republicans hate losers

If Trump wins and the Dems take the House/Senate.... impeachment part deux and President Pelosi.

conviction in the Senate would require 67 votes

There’s no scenario where Dems take the senate but lose the presidency

Trump instantly won 30+ million votes the moment an R appeared before his name on the ballot.

― Lover of Nixon (or LON for short) (Neanderthal), Monday, November 2, 2020 10:24 PM (one hour ago) bookmarkflaglink

This is the thing.

In a two party system it’s almost inconceivable for someone to do worse than ~40%.

America is a fundamentally evil country that deserves the reckoning it's actually already getting right now

I mean it is, and it does, Trump or otherwise.

Hmm, so if Trump loses, he *could* stand next time?

i get that milo, but calculating how many people “approve” of the job he’s doing is measuring something else - hence presidents getting 70-80% approval after terrorist attacks etc - it is not a simple party affiliation measurement, or at least not always

He has stopped the socialists from stealing the cows, sealing up all the windows, and banning cars. And Christmas is still here

Well of course trump is going to win, he's a winner.
So what time this morning is he going to declare victory. & will his ardent supporters help proclaim that from the rooftops.
Just seen Niger Farrago walking the streets of DC showing the plywood preparations for the result. So great to see such a sound mind innit.

Oh well.

xxp - that was the part I left out, there was no trigger for him to expand beyond the party minimum either. Democrats never gave him even a week's honeymoon in the approval ratings (as you'd see once upon a time), but aside from his mouth there was mostly just stasis for his voters pre-COVID, so they never jumped ship.

Biden's voters are going to be slightly more fickle (progressives are going to voice disapproval more readily than the right of the GOP, or non-Democrats who voted for Biden will, Biden doesn't have a project to deliver to his voters like Trump did w/ tax cuts or owning the libs) but I think this is the new normal with our more rigid partisanship and tribalism. Everybody's going to be 45% give or take, because that's what America is, just comfortable enough to seemingly function but also completely dissatisfying and alienating.

wtf everyone on Twitter led me to believe I would be waking up this morning to some result on this, now I have to wait at least another day? (and follow better Twitter accounts it seems)

The moment has passed, my energy is spent and I ain't bothered now. I think Trump will win though, he's too crafty not to.

you got the day wrong chief! Voting is happening today, and polls will start closing this evening.

Yeah, now I have to groundhog day all of today. Great.

he's too crafty

citation needed

The craftiness will centre around sliming out of his financial obligations post-presidency. Or not.

$$$$$

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/13090267/mystery-brit-gambler-bets-5million-trump-election-victory/

He has stopped the socialists from stealing the cows, sealing up all the windows, and banning cars. And Christmas is still here

let's be real, neither of these guys have a good duck rhythm

seeing a lot of final polls in battleground states getting closer for Trump

otoh

In 2016, late shifts by voters to Trump powered his victory. This year, a WSJ/NBC poll on Sunday in 12 battleground states finds no late movement: Biden leads, 51% to 46%, essentially unchanged from a survey late last week. https://t.co/1QXop8IFvP via @WSJ

— Trip Gabriel (@tripgabriel) November 3, 2020

I'm hopeful. I've said before that Trump is good at fighting his way out of a corner -- in fact he seems to thrive on it. He's had a lot of energy since his bout with COVID. I still think Biden's gonna win, but I'm not feeling so certain about it. Under a calmer, more normal national situation, I think Trump would win, but the economy and public health situation are likely too bad for him to overcome.

don't think it's so much that's he's "good" at fighting his way out of a corner so much as it is that America is built from the ground up to protect people like him. if you're rich, you can afford lawyers who can get you out of anything. if you're a Republican, you get a disproportionate amount of power thanks to the Electoral College and the Senate. if you're a corrupt Republican politician and a sex pest, every single member of your party will come to your defense, and if you have a Senate majority, you essentially have permission to commit unlimited crime. if the most watched news network carries your propaganda free of charge, it doesn't matter how awful you are at campaigning, nor does it matter that you are essentially running on nothing but "MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN" and surrendering to Covid.

frogbs otm

don't think it's so much that's he's "good" at fighting his way out of a corner so much as it is that America is built from the ground up to protect people like him. if you're rich, you can afford lawyers who can get you out of anything.

yep.

they built a bubble, they live in it, and they reinforce it

They built this bubble

They built this bubble on rock and roll

i believe they built it on theft and swindle