GET OUT: US politics November 2020

I'm confused about election results reporting. I though states weren't allowed to report their results before polling had closed in all states

https://www.cnn.com/2020/11/02/politics/dixville-notch-2020-results/index.html

538 currently has Montana as Trump +4. he won by 21 in 2016.

17 of those voters died

Montanans are worried about the Antifa/MS-13 invasion.

I'm confused about election results reporting. I though states weren't allowed to report their results before polling had closed in all states

― Dan S, Monday, November 2, 2020 10:39 PM (eight minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink

you're probably seeing states reporting the party registration of people who voted early. these obviously corellate pretty strongly with results, but they are not reporting results.

they also report demographics which is pretty important, for example here is some pretty bad news for Trump

How did more people vote early in Texas than voted in total in any other election in the state's history? Huge surges in turnout from every race/ethnic group except white, non-college voters, whose turnout is still 282,446 votes behind 2016 levels. pic.twitter.com/Y0pgAl8v70

— Tom Bonier (@tbonier) November 3, 2020

obv it could be that all the non-college whites are gonna show up tomorrow

i don't think states report that information. there are "exit polls" of early voters though.

xposts not like they have school to skip

I though states weren't allowed to report their results before polling had closed in all states

aiui, each county elections offices usually begin reporting their vote counts to the state elections office (and the public) as soon as the polls close in their own state, but these are always partial returns at first.

waiting for the next Nate Silver article "just reminding u that Trump can win again - hello?"

fun fact: it is illegal to publish the results of exit polls while polling is still open in most countries. the fact that we'll have exit polls at lunchtime on the east coast tomorrow is insane.

one fucking crazy stat I read recently: 71% of Republicans expect Donald Trump to win the popular vote. it really is stark to see the difference between the two parties right now: one party is fully confident they'll win despite all evidence (because evidence is fake, remember?), the other is in a historically great position and has seen almost nothing but good signs lately but still expects to have their souls crushed

has seen almost nothing but good signs lately but still expects to have their souls crushed

in full accord with the wishes and intentions of the Founders of the Nation

I felt like I should listen to nothing but left-wing punk rock tomorrow but it's Biden facing Trump, not like...some actual liberal hero, so maybe some corporate punk band that wants to "destroy the system" but only a "little bit because (he) likes Applebee's"

On election night 2016 I had a weird urge to throw on Bad Religion, a band I hadn't listened to since high school. Then everything started going south and I will probably never do that again.

probably shouldn't have played "Fuck Armaggedon, This is Hell"

that synth prog bad religion album is cool

I'm listening to Venom Prison. that's my decision.

and Hulk Hogan and the Wrestling Boot Band

Elections Project just posted a count of 98.8 million, a couple of other places are indicating 100 million likely reached. Pretty sure first thing tomorrow EP will confirm that. Hell of a thing.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lina_Hidalgo seems cool

From the "Americans Prepare" piece in the NYT:

For Mr. Tump, the race’s waning days have been a characteristically chaotic closing stretch

lol

Not to be confused with Mr. Tumnus

The NYT does a little legwork:

"In Monroe, Pa., Millie Cooper, 63, a retired health care administrator, dropped off her mail-in ballot and was zipping up her coat against the wind. “I pray Biden wins,” she said. “We need stability, and we don’t have it.”

In Detroit, Gary Bennett, 67, said he, too, wanted to see a change in the White House. Unemployed, but getting by with odd jobs at restaurants and as a handyman, he said he was ready for life to return to normal. He is not a huge fan of Mr. Biden, he said, “but he’s got to be better than what we’re going through now.”

Amid the exasperation and unease, Audrey Haverstock, an administrative assistant at a Minnesota church, expressed a more uncommon emotion: excitement.

“I’m excited for the election tomorrow,” she said. On Tuesday, she planned to put on a mask and vote in person. “I’m not anxious about the election,” she said. “Being anxious doesn’t solve anything.”"

Getting through winter with no stimulus until Jan. 22nd at the absolute earliest feels incredibly bleak.

Dixville Notch goes 100% for Biden

Nearby Millsfield also opened its polls at midnight. Trump won Millsfield 16-5 over Biden.

well shit, pack it in boys

good luck USA. praying for my preferred outcome!

that's not how magic works

xpost

Final joint probabilities:

72%: DEM trifecta
17%: Biden + GOP Senate + DEM House
6%: Trump + GOP Senate + DEM House
3%: Trump + DEM Senate + DEM House
2%: GOP trifecta

Other combinations have negligible chances.

— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) November 3, 2020

just remember, if the democrats don't take the senate + presidency, nate silver is a liar

will he eat a bug if wrong

he will eat 28% of a bug

Surely one of those outcomes will happen

Honestly don't see how GOP trifecta even has 2% chance. I think it's a ridiculous hedge.

Lurker here. This is one the places I've been following US politics obsessively for years. I go through phases of being annoyed with almost every poster, but everyone here is clearly good people and the world needs more of that. I am to some extent exactly the sort of milquetoast centrist fuck you all hate,and I'm an Irish citizen living Mexico so really I have no skin the game compared to do many of you, so I feel stupid even expressing an opinion, but I can't describe how much my heart is my mouth and for all that I don't agree with everyone here about everything, I cannot describe how much I want tomorrow to be the very first step in the right direction. I can't imagine what you are going through and my sincerest wish is for a glimmer of hope tomorrow. Regardless of what happens i hope you and all your love ones are well.

Yeah it makes me think something is not right with their model. You might as well say the Jets have a 2% chance of winning the Super Bowl.

good post .robin. don't let being the fear of being incorrect about something stop you. it fails to stop 99% of my posts, which is the reason why i feel the need to overlook 99% of the posts i don't agree with, too.

thank you for that .robin :)

For all the wonderful Americans I know and have seen post here - I hope you get a government which starts you back on the path to the good things America stands for.

As another non-US person my opinions are also unneeded, but all the best tomorrow and may Trump have some sort of paralysing embolism when he loses.

Good luck US! We're all counting on you!

https://64.media.tumblr.com/b8695d5f881584564c9bf7e68de8892b/tumblr_n9qk0cQbbv1r60h6bo1_250.gif

Good luck Nicolás Maduro USA

My plan is to just look at ILX throughout the day, turn my phone off at midnight, and not turn it back on until around 9am UK time. Good luck us/US.

I’m nearly done with Tuesday 3rd of November, you’re welcome to it. Good luck USA

Welp, I voted. I was second in line.

Deutsche Bank plans to cut ties with Trump after the election, Reuters reported, and could seize his assets if he can't pay back his debts https://t.co/6mRVPCbIeb

— Business Insider (@businessinsider) November 3, 2020

FINISH HIM plz. Good luck USA.

From the "Americans Prepare" piece in the NYT:
_For Mr. Tump, the race’s waning days have been a characteristically chaotic closing stretch_

Why did they have to stumble on the perfect nickname ONE DAY before the election?

Thank you, Robin!