GET OUT: US politics November 2020

I almost voted Libertarian in 2004 because weed/any third party but caved and voted for Kerry.

really hope weed is legal everywhere soon as that can fade away

Count me as another Nader 2000 voter.

I know multiple Ron Paul dudes that are Bernie Bros now, so that's good

but scratch my head at I either want one thing or the exact opposite part of it

kinda wanna run outside shirtless playing Rudimentary Peni at midnight tomorrow

― Lover of Nixon (or LON for short) (Neanderthal), Monday, November 2, 2020 5:29 PM (fifty-seven minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink

WHEN YOU ARE A MARTIAN CHURCH

Harry Browne! Pretty sure I’d moved past my brief dalliance w libertarianism by ‘00 but honestly if I had gone to the polls that year he might have been my ‘protest’ vote

My one regrettable vote was Ron Paul a month after my 18th birthday in 1988. He was the anti-drug war/anti-military intervention candidate. Since then straight Dem (only once in a state where it mattered), and no regrets.

I’ve def seen some RP > Bernie converts, but it feels like the bulk went straight up alt right? this may be distorted by ‘online’ though

I couldn't vote for Gore in '00 because the whole Tipper/PMRC saga -- in retrospect, that's probably the non-vote I regret the most, at least at the Presidential level.

Biden/Dems massively outspending Trump/GOP on ad spending on air in battleground states - both in the final week (first screen shot) and the election cycle as a whole (second screen shot), per CMAG numbers crunched by @DavidWright_7 pic.twitter.com/rPPYXvC2OT

— Manu Raju (@mkraju) November 3, 2020

A-B-C. A-Always, B-Be, C-Chooglin (will) at 8:36 2 Nov 20

I’ve def seen some RP > Bernie converts, but it feels like the bulk went straight up alt right? this may be distorted by ‘online’ though

yeah these guys are definitely not racist and good guys who weren't super knowledgeable but have that understanding that the system is broken and I guess in different ways RP and Bernie appealed to that

one is a white rapper

$0 in Texas!

weird that this also includes RNC + outside groups. you'd think someone would have wanted to reinforce a little there?

According to Wikipedia trump has not campaigned in Texas in 2020.

still gotta tip my hat to Paul at one of those really early GOP debates from ‘08 basically telling his whole party to fuck off w the Iraq war and getting scolded by the other candidates & booed by the audience.

then I found out about the Newsletters...

Every time I start to get confident I look at something on 538 and freak out. Now Nate Silver is saying if Trump wins Florida, Georgia and North Carolina, then the election is basically a toss-up. I think he's got a pretty good chance of getting those three!

Best debate boos

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZITP93pqtdQ

Every time I start to get confident I look at something on 538 and freak out. Now Nate Silver is saying if Trump wins Florida, Georgia and North Carolina, then the election is basically a toss-up. I think he's got a pretty good chance of getting those three!

weird that this also includes RNC + outside groups. you'd think someone would have wanted to reinforce a little there?

does it really make sense to spend any resources there? if you need to spend cash to hold Texas, you're done

They spent a ton in North Carolina!

Best debate boos

ty for the correction

the thing that makes me nervous is that nationwide RCP average has gone from Biden +10.5 to Biden +6.7 over the last 3 weeks, 6.7 is still obv very good but a polling error in Trump's direction turns this into a possible EC victory

Is it too much to say, "Don't look too closely at nat'l poll averages"?

Really wondering if this might be the key piece of polling data among the welter out there. Rasmussen, the conservative-liked pollster that successfully predicted Trump winning in 2016, shows Trump trailing in Philadelphia - the state he has to win https://t.co/MPmPJ0eq4f

— Stephen Smith (@SteveNickSmith) November 3, 2020

Trump's up by 2 in Castlevania though, those fucking skulls that move in a wavy line

Who's Pennsyl Vania and why is she so important

the dying art of graphics design!

RAsmussen also is typically 'off' by 2 points or so in the R direction so a 4 point lead for Biden in their poll is really much larger.

also lol fuck Rasmussen, they predict a Republican victory every election, including 2012, so naturally a stopped clock etc etc

...trailing in Philadelphia - the state he has to win

mmkay

https://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/political_commentary/commentary_by_michael_barone/going_out_on_a_limb_romney_beats_obama_handily

lol AND the dude who wrote this did the thing that caek hates

yeah that's a pretty sure sign that Biden's odds in PA are pretty solid

that said if it truly comes down to Pennsylvania this is gonna be a shitty fucking week

he's gonna win 600 to -62

Ditka will find a way

wait no ditka would be voting Trump delete post

the thing that makes me nervous is that nationwide RCP average has gone from Biden +10.5 to Biden +6.7 over the last 3 weeks, 6.7 is still obv very good but a polling error in Trump's direction turns this into a possible EC victory

The late deluge of polls is doing a number on the average. Pushing out a couple higher quality polls that show a bigger lead in favor of tight polls that don't really reflect any movement--since their last poll, Ras/Hill are flat and Emerson has ticked up a point for Biden. pic.twitter.com/QLXD5Ol7cr

— Liam Donovan (@LPDonovan) November 2, 2020

yup. I stopped reading it even though it was an easy quick way to get recent polls at work cos they made Wisconsin look ridiculously close cos a few (R) polls pushed out others that showed a bigger Biden lead.

I guess it was inevitable that he'd rebound from that 3-day stretch where he had his taxes exposed, bombed the first debate, and contracted Covid-19

That crazy New Hampshire outpost with eight people or whatever will be reporting just after midnight. They're pretty conservative; expect Trump to declare victory around 12:07.

1 for Trump
2 for Trump

I felt like I should listen to nothing but left-wing punk rock tomorrow but it's Biden facing Trump, not like...some actual liberal hero, so maybe some corporate punk band that wants to "destroy the system" but only a "little bit because (he) likes Applebee's"

Many xps but circa the Iraq invasion Ron Paul was successful as branding himself as a different kind of Republican, helped along by the media’s love of mavericks. With no one pressing him it was less apparent that his libertarianism wasn’t pro-choice but pro-let states punish women who had abortions with public flogging. For someone dissatisfied with the bipartisan authoritarianism post-9/11 it was an easy trap.

my dad bought me a Ron Paul ReLOVEution shirt. I wore it to the gym once.

I’ll be listening to Marie Davidson’s new album, which is extremely ‘80s - appropriate since that’s the last time either candidate was functioning at 100%.

i don't wanna think of either of their fuck rhythms

Since they’re both sex creeps (at best), good call.

I'm confused about election results reporting. I though states weren't allowed to report their results before polling had closed in all states

https://www.cnn.com/2020/11/02/politics/dixville-notch-2020-results/index.html

538 currently has Montana as Trump +4. he won by 21 in 2016.

17 of those voters died