GET OUT: US politics November 2020

also should I start a "TS: Sam Wang vs Ken Bone" poll y/n

Hello from the Bucks County Courthouse! These PA voters have been in line here on a frigid morning to correct issues w/ their absentee ballots. They had been notified to come in and fix. Voters tell us they’re willing to wait as long as it takes to make sure their vote counts. pic.twitter.com/64NBk1LlZU

— Caitlin Huey-Burns (@CHueyBurns) November 2, 2020

they're masked and unarmed, can't be Trump voters

maybe he could become a twitch streamer and just watch Fox News and talk about it live?

― Blues Guitar Solo Heatmap (Free Download) (upper mississippi sh@kedown), Monday, November 2, 2020 3:42 PM (four minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink

"RogStoneZone thanks for the tier 1 subscription for 14 months! Least you could do I guess. Appreciate the support. Enjoy the MAGA emotes buddy"

(and likely are just gonna settle for 3 million dead Americans)

Trump 2024: 3 Million Dead Americans Can't Be Wrong

That K9 graphic is the happiest the NYT has made me since hiring one of my friends

Here's how I roughly think about the map. If Biden wins popular vote by...

3% or less: Trump probably wins AZ/PA, wins w/ 279+ EVs
4-7%: Biden flips AZ/MI/PA/WI/#NE02, wins 290 EVs
8-9%: adds some combo of FL/GA/NC/TX/#ME02, wins 305-389 EVs
10% or more: adds IA/OH, wins 413 EVs

— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) November 2, 2020

can we stop fantasizing about giving Trump a post-Presidency job and continue fantasizing about trying him for treason

the best thing about this would be that he will likely have been convicted of several high financial crimes already, and be sitting his treason trial in orange scrubs with natural hair.

plus his debt will have come due so he might conduct his own defense to save money



wait holy wau @ K-9 graphic

Just a few baseball bets gone wrong, somebody will help cover it, I'm sure.

The November Surprise is Slim Shady.

https://youtu.be/5p3iMZBzW7M

But I think from a legal standpoint, it is correct that you judge standing first, and if you decide there's no standing, you don't reach the merits of the case.

I spoke too soon, sounds like Hanen totally decided to weigh in on why he'd stop election-day curbside voting if he thought GOP had standing to ask him to (BUT: my impression is that he in no way countenanced throwing out ALREADY CAST curbside votes which is the key point and was the place I was worried he would break out into full vote-stealing mode.)

it's a very strong sign that PA should be OK

Pennsylvania should be Oklahoma?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5OQVi5Rvxu8

Needles are good. They are better than the running vote tally, which basically tells you nothing unless you pay attention to which precincts have reported, which is exactly what the needle is doing.

― Guayaquil (eephus!), Monday, November 2, 2020 3:29 PM (thirty-seven minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink

otm. the needle makes it possible to ignore people tweeting about early returns in these states.

Queensryche said don't ever trust a needle, so sorry guys but i'm going w/ Tate

As the Drive-By Truckers sang, "have fun but stay clear of the needle."

my plan for Halloween this year was to go as the election needle but Covid ruined everything

kinda sucks actually that I can't go to the bar and get shitfaced tomorrow because god if Biden wins I'm gonna be as loud and obnoxious and all these assholes have been for the last 4 years. thanks Don

Tomorrow's going to be the first time in many years that I've actually voted on Election Day. The precinct I'm assigned to is in the basement of this public apartment tower.

Went to the secretary of state's website to confirm that's still the place, and all I got were the dozen "election centers" around the county being used for early voting. So I called the county clerk.

She told me I could go to the apartment tower. Or I could go to one of the dozen election centers. Or fuckit (my paraphrasing), I could just take my happy voting ass to any of the 150 regular precincts open tomorrow.

Do I want to go vote at the Methodist Church by my old apartment, for nostalgia's sake? No problem. Do I wanna see the inside of that creepy Masonic Lodge off of Geyer Springs Road? Here's my chance.

Basically, it's one precinct for every 1,200 voters – including all of those who have already voted.

If I wind up standing in in line tomorrow for more than ten minutes, I'm going to feel like an idiot.

I have voted at my daughter's school (two blocks away) for 14 years.

My wife voted early at the county courthouse, easily, a week or so ago.

I am choosing to vote on election day mainly for sentiment and tradition's sake, but also because I feared some chicanery/malarkey/shenanigans would intervene to exclude some votes.

My current plan is to go early - like 5:00 - and either there will already be a line or I will be the first in line.

239,822 African American voters over the age of 65 have already voted in Georgia. That's 124% of the total 2016 turnout for African American seniors.

— Tom Bonier (@tbonier) November 2, 2020

More Latino voters have already voted in Georgia (106,292) than voted in the entire 2016 election in the state (96,465).

— Tom Bonier (@tbonier) November 2, 2020

Meanwhile, white non-college educated voters in Georgia lag behind their 2016 total vote by 439,513 votes.

— Tom Bonier (@tbonier) November 2, 2020

I like that one

Do you have a sign for that one caek???

anybody vote naked

I voted wearing a jean jacket with a Fuck the Police burning cop car pin on it lol

All of those numbers are awesome, considering we live in era when elections are increasingly won by a few thousand, if not a few hundred, votes.

anybody vote naked

― Lover of Nixon (or LON for short) (Neanderthal), Monday, November 2, 2020 9:47 PM (six minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink

✔️

Yeah, those Georgia numbers are extremely promising.

Has this been discussed?

https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/proclamation-national-day-remembrance-americans-killed-illegal-aliens-2020/

should we?

no

One detail pops out that was probably the only real contribution Trump made to the text:

We solemnly stand with their families — our Angel Families — who have endured what no American family should ever have to suffer.

Wow, that's a desperate final push.

Do you have a sign for that one caek???

less than 24 hours til some of the polls close, imo it's okay to start feeling posi about some of these numbers without tapping the sign

Do you have a sign for that one caek???

― Li'l Brexit (Tracer Hand), Monday, November 2, 2020 4:46 PM (thirty minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink

yes. the sign says "how much has the population of georgia grown since 2016, but yes probably ok to feel good about that one, especially bearing in mind georgia's record of fucking up election day with long lines".

The population of African American seniors in Georgia is unlikely to have grown significantly, at a guess, so that one feels pretty good

has the population of white non-college educated voters dropped by half a mil in georgia? surely not?

(that's to caek)

not that it matters (i am one vote in an overwhelmingly blue state going with the flow) but i'm planning to vote, as always, at the school across the street. They open at 6 so we're gonna get up mad early, vote and then try to avoid everything until i guess december?

President Donald Trump on Monday created a “1776 Commission” to promote "patriotic education” and counter lessons that he says divide Americans on race and slavery and teach students to “hate their own country."

"Patriotic education" sounds pretty darn sinister, but I'm sure he's aware of that.

has the population of white non-college educated voters dropped by half a mil in georgia? surely not?

No. But those folks will predominantly vote on E-Day. The point is that we now know for sure that turnout among Black and Hispanic voters in Georgia will smash that of 2016, and we don't yet know whether that'll be true for Trump's base.

I'm still trying to understand why we think they would prefer voting on election day vs early vote.

as noted here, many people enjoy the personal ritual or sense of security of lodging directly.

How many states have Kanye and other (libertarian, green, independent?) candidates on the ballot? It's definitely a shame that the endless attention void of the President has stopped us learning about and laughing at whatever mutant replaced Gary Johnson after the party rejected him for thinking seatbelts were okay.

has the population of white non-college educated voters dropped by half a mil in georgia? surely not?

― Li'l Brexit (Tracer Hand), Monday, November 2, 2020 5:30 PM (twenty-five minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink

i'm being obtuse at this point.

(but i still maintain that there's no way to know if good news like that is good _enough_ in a close election)

no i’m calling it

thank god the election is over. are you all as relieved as i am right now?

from the needle page:

Here’s an easy way to think about it:

If Joe Biden wins even one of these states, he is a solid favorite to win the presidency. If President Trump wins all three, both candidates have realistic paths to the presidency.

many people enjoy

(legitimately so! I've voted early for convenience sake around work {eg working at the polls} or travel, and voted in person despite inconvenience because it's irrationally satisfying to do so. it's not implausible that less-educated voters are more likely to also stick to on-day voting out of familiarity or resentment/mistrust of change.)

The only time I voted in person on election day was 2008 and I got frisked by McCain’s secret service detail just after (my office was on the same block as his phx residence)

Voted for Nader on Election Day 2000 and got to use a marker to fill in an arrow, the last time I got to physically select my candidates.

I voted for Nader too. Highly regret it

I voted for a Fart this year