rolling “Trump is gonna win” containment thread

It occurs to me that election "odds" predictions are basically meaningless unless they have a certain outcome as near certain. There is no meaningful difference between a 20%, 30%, or 50% "chance" of winning a presidential election, because you can never test the odds -- the same election (or an election under similar enough conditions) is never going to happen again, let alone 3 or 5 or 10 or 20 or 100 times so you can actually figure out whether donald trump really wins the election 3/10 times or 1/10 times or whatever under current conditions. If you're going to say 20% you might just as well say 50%.

attorney general rudolph giuliani

attorney general rudolph giuliani

don't really buy that, if you have a coin that immediately dissolves upon touching the ground it's still 50/50 if it's heads or tails

that said the difference is the uncertainty here actually revolves around things that are knowable - nearly 100 million ballots have been cast, if we could open them all we'd almost certainly know the winner

I believe you mean motherduck you autocorrect

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CHKBlLyrRMI

There is no meaningful difference between a 20%, 30%, or 50% "chance" of winning a presidential election, because you can never test the odds -- the same election (or an election under similar enough conditions) is never going to happen again, let alone 3 or 5 or 10 or 20 or 100 times so you can actually figure out whether donald trump really wins the election 3/10 times or 1/10 times or whatever under current conditions. If you're going to say 20% you might just as well say 50%.

I feel the emotional truth of this. Everything either happens or doesn't. And when you're experiencing a gut-level disaster it's no consolation to hear that there was only a 10% chance of it happening.

In 2016, I can tell you it wasn't a consolation to hear that actually the polls were pretty good, it's just that all the error went in one direction or that all the uncertainty puddled in one place. We still had to live through the last four years.

Hence Silver et al. are very careful to do all the "Trump can still win" bet-hedging, so that they have cover if people come back at them with "YOU WERE WRONG" stuff.

feeling confident trump isn't going to win now after being a naysayer back when this thread was created.

I could get 1.5 on a Biden win rn, and would be putting a decent chunk on there if I had it to spare, and I think those are fair odds. not a fait accompli, but the most likely outcome.

my money says 2scoops comes close enough in enough states that his lawyers and the 6-3 supreme court can take it from there while he and barr jail the bidens, lock up the clintons, exile the soeteros, and finally, at long last, break ground on trump tower moscow, hand in hand with putin. book it. done

I'll take that bet, or whichever betting saying means that I'm saying none of that will happen

Gotta respect the dedication to the Putin but, though.

bit

say what? putin butt

what what putin butt

putin probably has a great butt tbf

you sure do, milo z ;)

https://www.npr.org/2020/11/01/930149143/wh-adviser-scott-atlas-apologizes-for-interview-with-kremlin-backed-news-outlet

xpost

all's fair in butt and war

putin may have a good fuck rhythm, as well

what what putin butt

― Give me a Chad Smith-type feel (map), Monday, November 2, 2020 3:18 PM (twenty-three minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink

whatever fits I guess

You want a Putin in my butt? Okay

attorney general rudolph giuliani

attorney general rudolph giuliani

mistadobalina, mista bob dobalina

Perhaps the wrong thread for this but

Historically, presidents who run for reelection receive a share of the popular vote that is remarkably close to their final job approval rating. The RealClearPolitics polling average has tracked Trump’s job approval throughout his presidency. He is the first president to have never received a 50 percent rating; indeed, he has never come close. Trump’s highest marks came this year between March 26 and April 2, when he topped 47 percent. As of Sunday morning, his job approval stood at 45 percent in the RealClearPolitics average. Given that there won’t be as much third-party voting this time around, that just won’t be good enough to win.

This from one of the Wash Po token conservatives

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/11/02/henry-olsen-2020-president-congress-election-predictions/?arc404=true

how can 45 percent of people think he's doing a good job?? so insane to me

It just depends what they think the job is.

yeah he's actually nearly at his all-time high which is fucking mind boggling but I imagine the fact that we're approaching election day might have something to do with it

lots and lots of people in america for whom thinking is not desirable and strongly discouraged

how can 45 percent of people think he's doing a good job?? so insane to me

― Li'l Brexit (Tracer Hand), Monday, November 2, 2020 5:15 PM (five minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink

yeah it is confounding

in the middle of a pandemic, the cleveland browns season tickets (which start at $1200 apiece) are sold out

they're called the browns because you might shit yourself and die if you go see them

http://i.imgur.com/OTpfv0U.png

they're called the giants because there's a giant chance of you catching covid and dying if you go see them

the point of posting that graphic was moreso to suggest that the worm has very much turned

yeah, that was from back in mid-May

they're called the patriots because it's patriotic to get the disease that the president had

I imagine the fact that we're approaching election day might have something to do with it

This is a great point, people who have settled for voting for him are naturally going to undergo some motivated cognition concerning his job performance

they're called the jets because your debilitating covid symptoms will happen so fast that you will need a jet to fly you to the hospital after the game

donnie's got this. no one cares about the virus. privatize the schools!

If he could just get a chance to end the horrible failure of Obamacare, people will surely stop with all the covid, covid, covid all the time.

It’s more like 45% brand recognition imo

Xps

COVID all the time
My girl wants to COVID all the time

It's almost less the possibility of him winning than the fact that the possibility even exists after four years of this shit that's giving me the vapors. Like what kind of a fallen world is this where the outcome is even slightly in question?

a world where the biggest and most powerful democracy in the world relies on a system that ensures that ~80% of the votes don't count

I hear you old lunch. I feel the same

He failed catastrophically and lost a couple percentage points as a result. It’s bleak.

because "fuck you buddy, I got mine and I intend to keep it" is a dominant political philosophy of our era

don't worry, 2021-22 is going to be an insane catastrophe either way

how can 45 percent of people think he's doing a good job?? so insane to me

― Li'l Brexit (Tracer Hand), Monday, 2 November 2020 22:15 (yesterday) bookmarkflaglink

It just depends what they think the job is.

There's almost no progress on the wall. Hillary is still out. The job is virtue signalling

For Republicans, half the job was tax cuts and packing the courts - massive success. The other half was owning the libs - also a massive success.

if Trump does manage to win legitimately, then America is a fundamentally evil country that deserves the reckoning it's actually already getting right now. KM's point - "He failed catastrophically and lost a couple percentage points as a result" is in my eyes an indictment of the horrible, utterly toxic era of untruth people like Rupert Murdoch and Roger Ailes have inflicted on this country. it means that we've driven the richest, most powerful country in the world into permanent minority rule of people with a voting base of people who do not understand how a single thing works. if Biden wins, I think America will eventually recover, if not...I dunno. I'm really pessimistic about what a 2nd Trump term is gonna bring.

For Republicans, half the job was tax cuts and packing the courts - massive success. The other half was owning the libs - also a massive success.

for legislators and politicians, it's the former. for most Trump voters - the asshole with massive signs in their front yard with slogans like NO MORE BULLSHIT - it's really all about the latter. there is literally nothing more to it any more than sticking it to the people who don't like them. put yourself in the mind of someone who openly fantasizes about murdering criminals - someone who thinks of Kyle Rittenhouse as a goddamn hero (because he got to shoot ANTEEFA!!) - and I think you'll get what the conservative mindset is all about

Trump instantly won 30+ million votes the moment an R appeared before his name on the ballot.