There's someone I always turn to for election forecasts
― Kabob Dylan (Ye Mad Puffin), Sunday, 1 November 2020 22:26 (three years ago) link
Greil Marcus huh? What's Xgau's take on this?
― A Scampo Darkly (Le Bateau Ivre), Sunday, 1 November 2020 22:27 (three years ago) link
No input from elderly rock critics, society has progressed past the need for input from elderly rock critics.
― Donald Trump Also Sucks, Of Course (milo z), Sunday, 1 November 2020 22:28 (three years ago) link
Dick Clark says that Biden's got a good beat and is easy to dance to. Casey Kasem, however, indicates that there is still significant strength for Trump in the demographic that prefers a light string section and tight harmonies.
It's a tough call. Likely down to the wire, and Rick Dees may be the tiebreaker.
― Kabob Dylan (Ye Mad Puffin), Sunday, 1 November 2020 22:44 (three years ago) link
Disco Cuck
― Lover of Nixon (or LON for short) (Neanderthal), Sunday, 1 November 2020 22:44 (three years ago) link
It's worth noting (again) that he had 2016 almost exactly right--in February, 2016.
In a presidential election, Nate Silver will prepare careful and accurate guides to what should happen, what is most likely to happen, but not what will happen: anything can happen. Add to this the disbelief on both sides that Trump could actually win, which energizes his followers and confirms his claims to outsider status, and add to that the fact that in many circles, particularly among better educated and better-off people, and particularly on the coasts, there are plenty of people who are attracted to Trump, who are secretly thrilled by the current of nihilism he is riding and the specter of destruction he embodies, but are keeping their mouths shut.
But I do think he's wrong this time (and possibly playing mind games with himself--say the unthinkable so it won't happen).
― clemenza, Sunday, 1 November 2020 23:01 (three years ago) link
That's less a prediction and more a warning. Idk that even Silver would have disagreed with it
This tine Greil is attempting a prediction
― Lover of Nixon (or LON for short) (Neanderthal), Sunday, 1 November 2020 23:05 (three years ago) link
clemenza, are we talking about Silver or Marcus?
― Kabob Dylan (Ye Mad Puffin), Sunday, 1 November 2020 23:05 (three years ago) link
He's definitely identified a fork in the road
― Change Display Name: (stevie), Sunday, 1 November 2020 23:10 (three years ago) link
Marcus...I read it as a warning and a prediction. And he was definitely wrong about where Trump's support would come from ("particularly among better educated and better-off people"). Still, almost a year out, pretty good, I'd say.
― clemenza, Sunday, 1 November 2020 23:11 (three years ago) link
"Marcus...I read it as a warning and a prediction."
How? He's a music critic first and foremost! Why listen to every dick and nancy w/ their own 'predicitons' other than having it rile you up?
― A Scampo Darkly (Le Bateau Ivre), Sunday, 1 November 2020 23:26 (three years ago) link
He's a music critic first and foremost!
Marcus? Yes, and no. And it hardly riled me up. It was interesting.
― clemenza, Sunday, 1 November 2020 23:31 (three years ago) link
I always get resistance when I quote that...even if you hate the guy, is it that hard to say, "Hmmm, pretty good call"? I don't remember a lot of other people allowing that Trump might win. I don't like Michael Moore, but I give him credit for seeing something everybody missed.
― clemenza, Sunday, 1 November 2020 23:34 (three years ago) link
I've met Marcus several times. He moderated a panel I sat on in 2017 -- a gentlemen in private, if this term exists in 2020. But his position staggers me with its implicit admission of insularity. Not once does he acknowledge the work done by people Not Trump hoping to reverse the flow: the volunteers, the lawyers working on SCOTUS and local court challenges, etc. It's just this hand-throwing "Yup, he'll win, and I'll still have a berth from which I can opine on conspiracies and correspondences and echoes, etc."
― Patriotic Goiter (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Sunday, 1 November 2020 23:35 (three years ago) link
Reading his post, I think at my most sinister that Marcus is signaling, "Don't worry, folks! I'll still write well during a Trump second term."
― Patriotic Goiter (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Sunday, 1 November 2020 23:38 (three years ago) link
I'm quite sure he's aware of all that. He's an old guy who's seen a lot of horrible stuff. He's not a cheerleader--I don't know why a certain amount of fatalism would be so scandalous.
― clemenza, Sunday, 1 November 2020 23:39 (three years ago) link
and, yeah, he was right in 2016. He's criticized Gore Vidal and others for writing with the smugness of certainty.
― Patriotic Goiter (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Sunday, 1 November 2020 23:39 (three years ago) link
I'm quite sure he's aware of all that.
Probably, especially if you have dinner with him. That does not come across in his post.
― Patriotic Goiter (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Sunday, 1 November 2020 23:40 (three years ago) link
"Don't worry, folks! I'll still write well during a Trump second term."
Really? Marcus is about the least self-aggrandizing rock critic I've ever read.
― clemenza, Sunday, 1 November 2020 23:40 (three years ago) link
I wouldn't call it self-aggrandizing so much as the dreaded term "privileged." He's fine in California.
― Patriotic Goiter (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Sunday, 1 November 2020 23:42 (three years ago) link
I just think he was really wrong about "...in many circles, particularly among better educated and better-off people, and particularly on the coasts, there are plenty of people who are attracted to Trump, who are secretly thrilled by the current of nihilism he is riding and the specter of destruction he embodies, but are keeping their mouths shut."
― Dan S, Sunday, 1 November 2020 23:43 (three years ago) link
If I have to admit what most turned my stomach, it's how the Trump's Chances sentences he puts between dashes as asides. He's too sharp a writer for that kind of callousness.
― Patriotic Goiter (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Sunday, 1 November 2020 23:44 (three years ago) link
"who are secretly thrilled by the current of nihilism he is riding"--I think he was right about that, he just had the wrong people who were thrilled.
I interviewed Marcus in 1986, and he contributed to my fanzine once. I wrote a book in 2014 that was important to me, sent it to him, and never got so much as a thanks--even though there was a chapter on him and other writers who'd influence me a lot. I said I was finished with Marcus at that point. It's only here, Michael Corleone-style, I get dragged into defending him.
― clemenza, Sunday, 1 November 2020 23:46 (three years ago) link
feel like we need a second containment thread for "political predictions from 'professional' music critics who have no real authority besides having done this shit for way too long" tbh
― Give me a Chad Smith-type feel (map), Sunday, 1 November 2020 23:47 (three years ago) link
I texted my mom today "Hopefully when I see you again our occupation by the orange idiot will be over." Her response:
"Yeah there's always hope I guessI just don't think it's gonna pan out for us this time.Do I think he will legitimately win?NoDo I think he's gonna stay in office?Fraid so"
What are they doing to these poor boomers?! I mean, I think there's certainly a chance she's proven right but damn, mom, so fatalistic already?
― Evans on Hammond (evol j), Sunday, 1 November 2020 23:48 (three years ago) link
Jesus, he's a writer, he's allowed to write whatever the fuck he wants.
― clemenza, Sunday, 1 November 2020 23:48 (three years ago) link
glad that's settled
― Give me a Chad Smith-type feel (map), Sunday, 1 November 2020 23:49 (three years ago) link
Sure, but why are people listening to a music critic dancing to politics?
xp
― A Scampo Darkly (Le Bateau Ivre), Sunday, 1 November 2020 23:50 (three years ago) link
"who have no real authority"
I have no earthly idea what that means. Who grants this authority, and where do we sign up?
― clemenza, Sunday, 1 November 2020 23:51 (three years ago) link
LBI: whether you like Marcus or despise him, calling him a music critic is an extremely narrow description of what he does. He writes about everything. His last book was on The Great Gatsby (haven't read it, and I'm not sure if he leap-frogged his zone of authority).
― clemenza, Sunday, 1 November 2020 23:53 (three years ago) link
there's a certain self-conscious "tough guy" un-emotional glibness to writers like marcus. it's not the prediction, it's the stupid trappings of a persona that no one has needed for thirty years being shoved unwanted into a beehive of anxiety. ham-fisted, no empathy. pretty much a failure at writing by any metric that means anything imo.
― Give me a Chad Smith-type feel (map), Sunday, 1 November 2020 23:55 (three years ago) link
Clemenza, you are right about that. And I don't like nor despise him, but from an outsider view (I am an outsider) it does seem like Americans are quoting everyone and no-one, from Nate Silver to Marcus, to back up either their fears or hopes about the outcome of the election. If that's "just" (not saying this lightly) anxiety about Tuesday, I get that. But I don't think Greil Marcus, despite his wide array of topics covered, is an expert on polling/predictions of elections etc.
Tl;dr: It's getting hot in here.
― A Scampo Darkly (Le Bateau Ivre), Sunday, 1 November 2020 23:59 (three years ago) link
(xpost) Well, again, if you've read a decent sampling of Marcus, you know he's just not someone who's going to write a rousing column on getting out the vote. Pretty clearly he's feeling your beehive of anxiety acutely, and he's expressing that in the way he often does--fatalistically.
― clemenza, Monday, 2 November 2020 00:01 (three years ago) link
I honestly don't think Marcus would ever claim he's an expert on polling--precisely why I found his 2016 assessment so impressive, it was all layman's intuition. (And, again, I think he's wrong this time.)
― clemenza, Monday, 2 November 2020 00:03 (three years ago) link
that jerk didn't even return your correspondence though, stop defending him and show yourself some respect! ;)
― Give me a Chad Smith-type feel (map), Monday, 2 November 2020 00:04 (three years ago) link
You could say I'm torn.
― clemenza, Monday, 2 November 2020 00:04 (three years ago) link
Anyway, to get back on track, my layman's intuition tells me Donald Trump is not gonna win. So I'm on the wrong thread.
― clemenza, Monday, 2 November 2020 00:05 (three years ago) link
lol
― Give me a Chad Smith-type feel (map), Monday, 2 November 2020 00:07 (three years ago) link
:D
― A Scampo Darkly (Le Bateau Ivre), Monday, 2 November 2020 00:13 (three years ago) link
― Patriotic Goiter (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Monday, 2 November 2020 00:14 (three years ago) link
You're a little late clemenza's already torn
― Kabob Dylan (Ye Mad Puffin), Monday, 2 November 2020 00:20 (three years ago) link
i laughed out loud at the dick clark/casey kasem line but marcus is really a lot more than a "music critic"; he's written a lot of things about politics that i've found thought-provoking and useful. lipstick traces and in the fascist bathroom (his best books, in my opinion) have at least as much to say about politics as they do about music. i also think that, at his best, he's a genuinely great and insightful writer.
to be honest i didn't post the quote because i agreed with it: i find his pessimism frustrating, glib, and not really justified. marcus has been insisting that trump will win by a landslide for months, and i get the impression nothing will change his mind -- he'd still be making this argument if trump were polling at 1 percent. but i understand where he's coming from. i mean, i'm going to have trouble sleeping till tuesday is over.
i can relate to clemenza's experience with marcus, a little: i gave up asking him questions on his website after he responded incredibly rudely to what i thought was a perfectly benign question (something about his favorite history books).
― (The Other) J.D. (J.D.), Monday, 2 November 2020 00:55 (three years ago) link
The winner seems unlikely to be known on Tuesday
― all cats are beautiful (silby), Monday, 2 November 2020 00:58 (three years ago) link
The winner will be clear on Tuesday
― sound of scampo talk to me (El Tomboto), Monday, 2 November 2020 01:01 (three years ago) link
Greil Marcus being right twice in a row is like asking a stopped clock what it thinks after an hour has passed
― sound of scampo talk to me (El Tomboto), Monday, 2 November 2020 01:02 (three years ago) link
If Trump wins again Marcus can write a book called DIPSHIT RACIST: A SECRET HISTORY OF THE 21st CENTURY
― Guayaquil (eephus!), Monday, 2 November 2020 01:44 (three years ago) link
feel like we need a second containment thread for "political predictions from 'professional' music critics who have no real authority besides having done this shit for way too long" tbh― Give me a Chad Smith-type feel (map), Sunday, November 1, 2020 6:47 PM (two hours ago) bookmarkflaglink
― Give me a Chad Smith-type feel (map), Sunday, November 1, 2020 6:47 PM (two hours ago) bookmarkflaglink
we have a containment board for them, ilm. i think that's good enough.
― treeship., Monday, 2 November 2020 02:08 (three years ago) link
― Welcome to Nonrock (breastcrawl), Monday, 2 November 2020 15:26 (three years ago) link
biden is more melodic iirc
― reggie (qualmsley), Monday, 2 November 2020 15:30 (three years ago) link
fuck rhythm
― Lover of Nixon (or LON for short) (Neanderthal), Monday, 2 November 2020 15:45 (three years ago) link