GET OUT: US politics November 2020

Aw, I loved that, thanks y'all. Sorry I'm such a cantankerous asshole sometimes, I just am either much more cynical or much more idealistic than many of you.

ftr I didn't have any issue with what you said or you personally, I was salty cos I am having a helluva weekend and am overanxious, but yr good people.

Can't imagine why anyone would be anxious these days

I mean everything's fine, right?

table, I also concur that you seem like good people (I don’t know you) but sometimes your stated positions on these boards come with a powerful whiff of sanctimony that drives me up the wall.

Sorry I'm such a cantankerous asshole sometimes, I just am either much more cynical or much more idealistic than many of you.

We're all more of both tbh.

Cynicism is curdled or smothered idealism anyway.

I try to belong to the reality-based community, but it's not any more comfortable than being a cynical idealist.

Cynicism is curdled or smothered idealism anyway.

I'll remember this line.

As long as I continue to live and work where I do, my idealism remains uncurdled, which is probably why my tolerance for unvarnished cynicism is so low.

I’m looking forward to putting my money behind the campaigns of actually progressive primary candidates in 2022, all over the country, if the Dems are as useless as noted cynic milo assumes they’re going to be.

Those of us with some discretionary income definitely should be upping our giving game, both political and charitable. I think this year our household is going to achieve the 'tithing' standard of 10% of AGI.

i've probably hit $500 or so of donations, which isn't a lot, but is way more than I've donated to causes before.

My suggestion is simply to determine a rolling monthly donation per what you can contribute, identify groups you wish to assist and set up the auto payments. Then it’s part of your monthly budget and you can add more as needed. Been doing it that way for years.

El Tomboto, i think sometimes the sanctimony comes from occasionally feeling like one of the few people with an outlook similar to mine on this board. That said, point taken! Tbh with notable exceptions, you all seem like good people.

Except Ned.

Lol

oh no we all agree Ned’s a bastard

Well I am full of hate and all.

ANAB

Hey man, Ned lives matter.

American flag where the middle stripe is just part of a pic of Ned's face

I’ve heard about the Raggett history. Long line of bandits!

the thin purple line

lol crüt

That...was too good.

Nevada (a trusted-by-Ralston feed):

2020 turnout in Clark is now over 100% of total final turnout in Clark in 2016 (by raw ballots). pic.twitter.com/AguQY1RhGV

— Dr. John R. Samuelsen (@JohnRSamuelsen) November 1, 2020

Note that registration increased by about 240,000 between 2016 and 2020. So, percentagewise, still will have to wait to see if it exceeds that on election day. Still about 10% more of the electorate has voted at this point than the same point in 2016 even after adjusting for that pic.twitter.com/1C1NlE1fvl

— Dr. John R. Samuelsen (@JohnRSamuelsen) November 1, 2020

The second tweet was just for caek, who can throw a sign at me instead if he must. *ducks*

want to apologize to ned raggett for dissing his posts about turnout - they are quite fascinating and i was wrong.

I voted a couple weeks ago and when I walked out of the courthouse multiple church bells were ringing and I took it as a good omen. Later found out they were ringing as they have at 11am every Thursday in memory of the Covid dead, which was sobering.

No need but thank you, just sharing what I’m seeing. It’s always been the case this election would have driven voters, as well as more going early due to COVID, but this is startling for sure. Less that two weeks ago McDonald figured only 88 million in the end and I only saw a random guess at 100 million as an outside shot someone offered in a larger piece, and here we are on the brink of that.

:) a good sign

While prepared for anything, I am also oddly hopeful.

But I am also going to buy some bourbon tomorrow.

table you’re in philly right?

Probably not the best idea to announce this beforehand

The quiet part, screamed: Trump tells reporters that "we're going to go in the night of, as soon as that election is over [in PA], we're going in with our lawyers ... if people wanted to get their ballots in, they should have gotten their ballots in long before that." pic.twitter.com/sAMA0Pw6Tg

— Aaron Rupar (@atrupar) November 1, 2020

Hey remember Howard Schultz. What a world.

“Schultz is an outspoken neoliberal, centrist, technocratic, and political independent.[78][79] Schultz's political positions are similar to the Democratic Party platform.”

Lmao

"I don’t think it’s fair that we have to wait for a long period of time after the election," Trump said, and it would be “terrible thing."

fucking baby

The entire GOP is on their back foot trying to pitch a hail mary, and it’s not stopping in November. I’m going to help fund every runoff, I’m going to donate to every local race with half a chance in 2022. I’m not the only one. They’re fucked and they know it.

that video is something

i don’t think it’s fair that we have to wait for a long period of time after the election to ship trump’s sorry ass back to whatever gold-veneered conference centre he hasn’t had to hock yet.

There are precisely two words I want to hear this month. I don't know who will say them or when, but they are:

you're fired

Hi

Interesting pic.twitter.com/WZDD5smzAc

— Will Jordan (@williamjordann) November 2, 2020

What am I supposed to take from this? Democrats are more inclined to vote early this year than Republicans, we know that, so the more Democratic parts of Texas had more early turnout, as you'd expect. What is holy shit about it?

Controlling for pop growth, turnout in Democratic parts of Texas has been huge. And it’s not even Tuesday.

Like many I the thread I don’t understand the second map, because they are two different years.

There is a whole frickton of game theory in it,, but I found this interesting, in terms of why does Candidate X go to state Y.

https://neelmehta.medium.com/5-keys-to-campaign-strategy-5-high-variance-plays-4a1f32f88920

(Also in a "wtf else do we have to do while waiting for results" kind of way. Clearly, wait-and-see remains the best strategy)

62-63 million people voted Trump in 2016. Given current trends he’s likely gonna need something like 72 million to win. I do not think he’s persuaded anywhere close to 10 million additional people to vote for him.

I never forget that year when something like a mind boggling 300+ election staff died during an Indonesian election, purely from counting fatigue/overwork.

I think all the tweet is saying is that in democratic areas of texas early voting alone has already far exceeded total votes in 2016

To put this another way, I don’t see how a guy who’s literally never gotten above a 42% approval rating in the polling average can win a high turnout election

Yeah but the second image claims to show margins for Clinton 2016 and O’Rourke 2018 in a single map. I can’t figure it out.

Xpost

I think all the tweet is saying is that in democratic areas of texas early voting alone has already far exceeded total votes in 2016

Yes. I get that. But if counties in the Republican part of the state are already at 80% of their 2016 turnout, and we know that those counties have many more Republicans and thus much greater expected Election Day turnout than the Democratic counties, is there any reason to expect we're going to see bigger relative turnout in Dem counties than GOP counties, when all the votes are cast and counted?