"Will you shut up, man?" US Politics October 2020

burrito I like Yo La Tengo a lot

me too dude, me too

xp wow, just wow

President Donald Trump is seen between pumpkins during a campaign rally at Pittsburgh-Butler Regional Airport in Butler, Pennsylvania. Photo by @ReutersBarria pic.twitter.com/oWQdP15gS7

— corinne_perkins (@corinne_perkins) October 31, 2020

Nate Cohn has a good post about the Selzer poll in Iowa.

I find this calming:

https://kendallkaut.substack.com/p/why-joe-biden-is-going-to-win

Some might argue, “The state polls were well off in ‘16, I don’t trust them.” The state polls missed in the Midwest, in large part, in 2016 because many failed to weigh by education. Most major pollsters now weigh by education. So it’s not even an apples-to-apples comparison between ‘16 polls and ‘20 polls. If pollsters still use the ‘16 framework, Biden would have a much bigger lead.

That's good, yeah.

another bit of context on the IA poll:

Independents, again, are key in this race. This is a group Trump carried in 2016.

Our September poll showed Biden leading with independents 50% to 38% (+12)

Today, Trump wins them back and leads 49% to 35% (+14)https://t.co/0CcpU32GDn

— Brianne Pfannenstiel (@brianneDMR) October 31, 2020

theres no indication that Biden's standing among independents has slipped, this poll has to be a big outlier

Maybe independent Iowans are big fans of coughing COVID on each other in bars while they drown their sorrows at poor corn prices.

the only way i'll be worried is if tomorrow's polls and the final polls show something similar. is worth nothing that a lot of the positive Biden polls ranged 10/23 - 10/30 and the Iowa poll spanned only the 29th-30th - so i'll be curious to see if other polls that span just the last few days show any shift.

honestly though I'm tapped out of worrying and gonna watch sports all day tomorrow.

polls don't just randomly shift like that though, nothing's changed in the final days except for new all-time high scores in the Covid count

no matter how sound your methodology is you're going to get weird outliers with 800 person samples roughly 5% of the time. that's what WI+17 was and that's got to be what this is.

i agree with that. it's funny watching the Twittersphere shit itself though

lol Nate Silver took the gloves OFF

I'm sure assholes like you would give "my profession" a hard time in pursuit of whatever vainglorious angle you're trying to play. But 10% things happen 10% of the time and empirically based on our forecasts that's exactly how often they do happen. https://t.co/8oqu1OmvAz

— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) November 1, 2020

So he stranded rally attendees in the cold without return shuttles again? These morons will never learn how much he actively hates them.

Sorry, I see that was already covered upthread.

It’s 41° for those wondering. https://t.co/jk4B24ecJS

— DJ Judd (@DJJudd) November 1, 2020

email from James Carville I just got:

Nancy asked.

And now I’m begging.

So you can bet your own butt this is important!

Trump just announced he amassed $265 MILLION to win his re-election. $265 MILLION!

I’m calling on grassroots Democrats to band together like a mob of angry bees! Nancy launched an emergency 4X-match to outraise him -- but she can only keep it open until tonight’s midnight deadline. >>

very glad he specified we can bet our *own* butts

although DJ Judd should clarify that technically it's 41° for everyone there, not just those wondering

New Washington Post-ABC News polls: Biden +7 in PA (down from +9 last month), Trump +2 in FL (down from +4 last month). @danbalz @sfcpoll @emgusk https://t.co/LptpjqLZA2

— Dave Weigel, Re-Animator (@daveweigel) November 1, 2020

Nate Silver makes it into the SNL opening.

good to see that the +2 is actually a move towards Biden

i wonder if Nate enjoys that kind of exposure

I assume you're referring to Joe, cause as we've all seen in that leaked Chinese sex tape, Hunter definitely doesn't need a +2

what the FUCK is you talkin about?

Hunter Biden is abnormally well-endowed in the penal area.

open for an October surprise

i wonder if Nate enjoys that kind of exposure

I've got to believe he loves it, even if he might not admit to that (and even if it gives competitors a chance to caricature him).

so that AtlasIntel has called 81% of races correctly, has a Simple Average Error of 8.8 points, and its Advanced and Predictive scores aren't great, 538 sez they're average. online survey, ima say it's likely bogus for Wisconsin

it also got a 89% white sample

half of AtlasIntel's summary of their poll is them bragging about how good their polling performance has been too. it reads like a press release

In 2016, Clinton won the TX counties containing Houston, Dallas and Austin by 541k votes. In 2018, Beto won them by 682k. Biden's likely on pace to win them by 1 million+.

And that's not even including San Antonio/El Paso.

— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) November 1, 2020

i have a new sign, it says "whenever you talk about texas turnout numbers you have to use per cent, or you have to acknowledge that the population of texas is growing rapidly", and i'm tapping it ;-)

People seem to misinterpret that growth, too - Beto won natives, Sen. Blobfish won the non-native Texans.

Direct deposit into the spank bank. https://t.co/KmWGjdwBxD

— Bradley Whitford (@BradleyWhitford) November 1, 2020

He hit that three like it was a Yemeni wedding https://t.co/J8zgqpEN0R

— accidentally racist spooky display name (@websiteidi0t) October 31, 2020

lol at that 'seen between pumpkins' tweet

That Yemeni wedding tweet...whew.

Reading the replies on the original is some sad, sad stuff. Lots of whites with blue checkmarks being like 'he's so cool omg what village will his drones strafe next'

23,975,574 Americans who didn't vote in the 2016 election have already voted.

7,816,118 of these voters were voting for the first time in their life.

— Tom Bonier (@tbonier) November 1, 2020

I'm gonna idly speculate, perhaps unhelpfully, at least a fifth of those are votes for 'four more years' sadly, whether young first time voters or just commonly apathetic types who sat out last time but then got red-pilled by antifa setting fire to their minecart, but let's hope it's far far less.

The Yemeni wedding tweet is not funny.

Hm okay I'm open to that, crut. I personally don't know if it's supposed to be "funny" as much as pushing against the adulation? But I don't swim in those waters much so I'm probably missing something.

Election Day weather forecast: Great!

Outside of the Pacific NW (where folks vote by mail), basically no rain/snow is in the forecast across the entire country. That means voters waiting in pandemic-mandated lines outside polling places should stay dry, if maybe a little chilly. pic.twitter.com/TI4CJAgIQg

— Steven Shepard (@POLITICO_Steve) November 1, 2020

Reading the replies on the original is some sad, sad stuff. Lots of whites with blue checkmarks being like 'he's so cool omg what village will his drones strafe next'

― healthy cocaine off perfect butts (the table is the table), Sunday, November 1, 2020 11:57 AM (two hours ago) bookmarkflaglink

I'm not familiar w the full context of verified white ppl being flippant(?) about USian-dealt horrors? Fwiw it appeared in my timeline being RTed by @WyzeChef, a Ferguson organizer. I apologize if it was tone-deaf or inappropriate.

I apologize if it was tone-deaf or inappropriate.

Don't worry about it. Saying something positive about Barack Obama is always tone-deaf and inappropriate, if you're map or table.

There’s nothing wrong with that tweet.

It’s a legit response (funny? I laughed) to misguided Obama adulation.

Putting aside whether or not the tweet is supposed to be funny, I fail to see the analogy between atrociously bungled strikes that killed civilians instead of the intended target and a nothing-but-net three pointer.

Good morning!

Turnout of FL's registrants so far:

Dems: 64.3%
GOPers: 64.1%
NPA/others: 49.7%

— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) November 1, 2020

They are not analogous, that’s the point.

The “joke” is this scrim of celebrity that obscures the atrocities. It’s a sendup of responses like Bradley Whitford’s “spank bank” line.

I've never read this guy, but this is worth a peek:

https://kendallkaut.substack.com/p/why-joe-biden-is-going-to-win

Nate Silver gave Donald Trump around a 30% chance to win. 30% events happen all the time.

ok, and now he has Trump at 10%. so why write an entire article arguing that Biden is a shoo-in?