"Will you shut up, man?" US Politics October 2020

It's almost as if people have hated this guy so much for so long they're coming out in droves to (hopefully) vote against him. Weird. I guess that's what happens when there is literally only one way people can remove a president from office and it only happens after a 4 year wait.

Yah mo burn this motherfucker

guessing the calculation of Wisconsin's absentee ballots was indeed not right as Michael's page now reflects far fewer ballots having been sent out, and ergo, far fewer outstanding. problem is they include their early in-person absentee votes in the same total.

so 14% ballots outstanding from those requested, and that's more like 196,000 outstanding than the 700,000 that was being bandied about.

also I have been told by those in Wi that anybody who requests an absentee can also vote in person as a backup, much like FL, so we won't know if the people who failed to return their ballots just went and voted in person early or on Tuesday or what. may not be that many 'unreturned' at all.

and naturally there's always a degree every year of people who are sent ballots, never return them, and don't vote at all, but i don't know what that typical number is

So what are we doing tomorrow? Starting a new thread like always? I think we should have a standalone thread for election results regardless.

Jeo Binden for presidetn

Trump is going to get dunked on so hard. I can’t wait!!

if this turnout means what it looks like it does, i think we'll know the result on tuesday

Get in loser, we’re going voting. pic.twitter.com/vGT7oMCi7Q

— Katie Porter (@katieporteroc) October 31, 2020

The official White House story is that this massive turnout is a measure of the president's incredible popularity. Most popular president ever!

if this turnout means what it looks like it does, i think we'll know the result on tuesday

i really want him to lose texas

my heart would feel so full if he lost texas as well as georgia and all the upper midwest states that put him over the top last time. (in this scenario, he obviously also loses florida and pennsylvania).

If trump loses Texas (or Georgia or NC) then it’s not good news for him in Florida, but Florida is a bit of a weird one. It’s demographically unusual and it’s elections don’t correlate very closely with anywhere else.

i got an email today titled "Have you ever had your lunch stolen at work?" and I thought it was another Jaime Harrison email until I realized it was a Reddit subscription email

In echoes of the Axelrod "we'll find out who's bluffing on election day" line from 2012, note that a top official at the NRSC says bluntly that data is showing Trump losing AZ in this @pkcapitol @seungminkim piece https://t.co/uJYpC7Y97p

— Maggie Haberman (@maggieNYT) October 31, 2020

One for UMS upthread:

The final GOTV push with @Ilhan pic.twitter.com/MNoSXvuU4T

— Dave Weigel, Re-Animator (@daveweigel) October 31, 2020

my heart would feel so full if he lost texas as well as georgia and all the upper midwest states that put him over the top last time. (in this scenario, he obviously also loses florida and pennsylvania).

My fantasy is having Texas and Florida in the bag on Tuesday night so that Pennsylvania doesn't even matter.

Further:

pic.twitter.com/vNAGnCV6Sq

— Dave Weigel, Re-Animator (@daveweigel) October 31, 2020

I think if he has Florida he can probably not worry about Texas or a prolonged wait for Pennsylvania.

Based on me being pretty conservative with this simulator.

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/ng-interactive/2020/oct/30/build-your-own-us-election-result-plot-a-win-for-biden-or-trump

I think if he has Florida he can probably not worry about Texas or a prolonged wait for Pennsylvania.

I'm confident Biden will win the election but not Florida.

Biden up 290-0, Trump says "he's not mathematically eliminated"

aw 😎❤️ omar

My fantasy is having Texas and Florida in the bag on Tuesday night so that Pennsylvania doesn't even matter.

fine by me

i kinda want Trump to lose so big that he actually screams at his followers for being pussies and they still thank him for it

lol just went to look at recent AZ polls on RCP and all but one of them were from right wing pollsters

obv not saying this is happening

but a blue Texas in the future is pretty much an extinction level event for the GOP right?

it's interesting because up until 1980, Texas was predominately a blue state, and hasn't been since, but in today's polarized elections when you can typically throw states like CA, NY, and TX into respective columns before polls close, it's not a great sign.

that being said, I firmly feel like the next candidate they drag out could simply be barely right of Marco Rubio and suddenly win Texas easily.

though I feel weird using colors pre-2000 cos red and blue didn't exist to describe parties before then (which is nuts, cos it's one of those things you feel like has been around foreer)

Sabato's Crystal Ball feels that Dems have a pretty solid shot at 50 Senate seats, and that the other 3, including both in GA, are toss-ups.

Guessing both GA seats will go to a run-off, if Biden's the clear winner I would bet both of my dollars that both go Republican.

we really only technically need 50 with Kamala being the tie-breaker, but I'd much rather have 51 or 52 so we don't have to worry about cumstains like Manchin.

boy will it be frustrating though if it takes us a while to know if we have the Senate or not, given its importance.

it's interesting because up until 1980, Texas was predominately a blue state

To be fair, up until 1980, Southern politicians were still figuring out which side was the more racist one, and aligning themselves accordingly

yeah Dixiecrats et al

everybody get in your bucket, post-election (assuming biden wins):

(a/i): (see bucket H below), the möbius strip connects here

a) fuck the republicans, and their full embrace of trump for eternity. and for the years that they all pushed things forward in his direction, too. never let them forget (this is my current bucket). something snapped. there is no "normal" to go back to.

• political sector: DSA, local-focused with a few national-level champions (the crew, etc), mask-wearing proponents, abolish/replace wholesale rather than "reform", half-measures and tepid responses can no longer be acceptable, given the realities

• political sector: democrat, votes most of the time, national issues, wears a mask when everyone else is too, reform, incremental, has generally positive feelings about the clintons

• political sector: ._., back to the barren wastelands of their interior minds, there are many questions which have many answers and lead to so many more questions. can a closed system contain an exponentially-growing series of questions and answers? doesn't know who malthus is either. can't find a mask

• political sector: claire mccaskill, "center-left", hears the word "centrist" and doesn't flinch, older people, compromise, across the aisle, a good idea should start out with a preemptive concession by the majority party, puts the mask on when the rules say you have to, chuck todd, gerald ford, RBG's friendship with Scalia

f) listen, we'll see how biden does, but trump left him the best economy there ever has been. biden will probably make washington name their football team the "socialists", but i'm praying for this country

• political sector: about 20% of the entire country, many people in your neighborhood, anti-mask, anti-covid-19, hates when race comes up, several people in your family, stupid fucks, run of the mill republican politician

• political sector: about 5% of the entire country, never sure about anything, has at various times claimed that everyone would die from covid-19 and that the whole thing was a hoax, lacks an internal editor, thinks masks are part of a conspiracy, louie gohmert, climate skeptics

• about 15-20% of the entire country. yearns to fight a giant race war. feels very violent toward mask-wearers. tom cotton, josh hawley. creepy as fuck

yeah if Ossoff doesn’t somehow manage 50% then I fully expect both seats to stay in the GOP column. Shame, bc as much as I’d enjoy watching Trump lose GA I’d rather have at least one of those seats

would be so ironic if ACB caught the rona, wasn't aware of it spread it around a bit and succumbed to it during the lame duck.
speshly if she'd been really generous to Mitch, Kavanagh and a few others with it.
But would that mean they suffered enough?

Guessing both GA seats will go to a run-off, if Biden's the clear winner I would bet both of my dollars that both go Republican.

― Donald Trump Also Sucks, Of Course (milo z), Saturday, October 31, 2020 12:07 PM (fifteen minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink

agreed

xpost She had it already, iirc.

can't she get a relapse?

Sumter Co., FL (The Villages) update: we're up to 81,262 early votes cast out of 105,612 registered voters - a 77% turnout rate, the highest in the state. https://t.co/7hJkcln5TP

— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) October 31, 2020

I love her

pic.twitter.com/XLA6rnLCqN

— Dave Weigel, Re-Animator (@daveweigel) October 31, 2020

Google search trends over the last 7 days (color in each state determined by the topic with most searches)

Different parts of the country care about different things. pic.twitter.com/xSCrXncaq6

— Jens Nordvig (@jnordvig) October 31, 2020

tbf, hunter biden's lovechild does live in my state.

that's bad news for the SC senate race. the rest of those red states are the deeeeeeep red ones, the ones that vote for trump even in a landslide biden victory. so if people in SC are actually caring about hunter biden, that sucks.

on the other hand, maybe that's a measure of how bad lindsey graham sucks. even with a constituency that spends their spare time conducting oppo-research, he's in a tight race

but a blue Texas in the future is pretty much an extinction level event for the GOP right?

so this is what Shor said in that NYMag interview. Is this the only scenario where Texas goes blue? is he right about the rest? does this mean I should be even more nervous about Tuesday? no idea.

If education-based polarization reaches a point where Texas becomes the tipping-point state, then that means that Michigan and Minnesota and Maine and Wisconsin are all gone.

Lots of delicious quotes here in here

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/senate-trump-republicans-elections/2020/10/30/9eacb5b6-1aaf-11eb-aeec-b93bcc29a01b_story.html