"Will you shut up, man?" US Politics October 2020

Silver is not ah a historian.

he’s a painfully silly man when he’s talking anything besides numbers

He is awful at kung fu

Enter the Wonk

NBC/Marist poll of NC (among likely voters):

Biden 52%
Trump 46%

Oct 25-28, +/- 4.7%

Among registered voters, it's Biden 51%, Trump 46%

— Mark Murray (@mmurraypolitics) October 30, 2020

Silver is not ah a historian.

one of my favorite deep cuts by The Fall

Holy shit @ North Carolina

for a sec i thought that was national and about had a heart attack lol xxp

but yeah that's fuckin hot

it would be pretty funny if it ended up as such a blowout that Trump's angle ends up being something like "this has never happened before so it can't be real! fake news!"

xxp simon lol

his angle is that he was doing the very best that anyone had ever done, until covid-19, which is fake, took him down, because the media kept talking about it.

it doesn't matter than many other global leaders managed to maintain or even improve their political standing through the pandemic. perhaps these other extremely lucky leaders displayed some leadership abilities and their people responded to it? who knows, it's a mystery!

NORTH CAROLINA
COME ON AND RAISE UP

it would be pretty funny if it ended up as such a blowout that Trump's angle ends up being something like "this has never happened before so it can't be real! fake news!"

― it bangs for thee (Simon H.), Friday, October 30, 2020 1:24 PM bookmarkflaglink

"Nobody's ever won 400 EVs before, we checked!"

"Thanks to me the biggest landslide in history! I got people more out to vote than you've ever seen before, Legally- or otherwise! Too bad you know what I'm still President!"

y'all laugh but

"I won, 180 to 358! Some people say 180 is a bigger number!"

"Congratulations to the President of the Upside Down."

"I won, 180 to 358! Some people say 180 is a bigger number!"

― Lover of Nixon (or LON for short) (Neanderthal), Friday, October 30, 2020 10:39 AM (one minute ago) bookmarkflaglink

iirc 24 is the highest number

but three is the magic number!

Numbers have been very unfair, very unfair.

https://pbbmath.weebly.com/uploads/4/5/2/1/45219553/published/capture_17.jpeg?1499449056

Numbers is the worst book of the Bible!

Two Corinthians far better

I'm sure they'll have no difficulty figuring out the numbers

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DHFB40WOMOo&ab_channel=JMRieger

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DHFB40WOMOo&ab_channel=JMRieger

why why why why

ya'll tried reading Job past the first chapter of God's boasts? He's worse than Kanye in 2013.

http://youtu.be/DHFB40WOMOo

ah a historian

Well, let's see, Norwegian synth-pop act from the early 1980s, biggest hit "Take on Me," driven by an innovative video that combined live action and animation during a time when the then-nascent format of MTV was...

Oh, wait, never mind

NC looking good. and something to bear in mind

Early votes and processed mail ballots, which are likely to be relatively stronger for Mr. Biden, will be reported around 7:30 p.m. Election day results, which are likely to be relatively stronger for Mr. Trump, will be reported between 8:30 p.m. and 1 a.m. Officials estimate that upward of 98 percent of ballots cast will be reported on election night.

i.e. expect AP to call NC on the night. if NC and FL (which should also call that night) go biden then as long as biden at least holds clinton's states he's won, regardless of late ballot bullshit in PA etc., and it's very difficult to see how he wouldn't hold those states in a world where he flipped NC/FL.

Re: Trump's change of election night plan, my alarmist take is that he plans instead to hunker down while the cops and proud boys mobilize

Interesting that the famously sanguine Trump camp isn't referring to it as a victory party

Right now, he probably understands that if a victory lap is taken on the night of Nov. 3, it won't be him taking it. He must rely on a delayed result to have a shot at winning. Therefore, if he does get the indecisive results he wants, he can make his planned statements about 'many, many people are saying there was much fraud, etc.' from the impressive and official surroundings of the WH press room, or even more likely the Oval Office! Those statements claiming fraud may already be drafted by now.

remember he claimed the election HE WON was fraudulent so he's not just gonna saunter off

I just said something approaching this in the Greenwald thread but:

Cautiously, I have this sneaking suspicion that even some Republicans are feeling Trump fatigue and if he looks like a loser on Tuesday, they won't necessarily try all that hard to overturn the will of the people.

I don't mean national-level politicians, necessarily. But the apparatus of secretaries of state, state election commissioners, state legislators, state-level judges. If it's a losing battle to grind through every ballot when clearly the tide of the nation is against them, what's their incentive to fight on?

Perhaps some of them will just say "fuck it, why am I busting my ass for this out-of-touch loser maniac?"

it's basically "aw come on, Uncle Carl, why's your dick out again, it's Christmas!"

yes along those same lines I'm wondering to what extent a lot of these people have been making private-sector contingency plans, and having seen the writing on the wall are already halfway out the door.

It's probably only here, with the prospect of doing something else with their lives, that some of these people might acknowlege a little shame—not pubicly of course, but to themeselves

In September I read a Miami Herald or Politico story in which Ron DeSantis was already sending feelers out to the Biden people.

Silver's noted this before as he says but:

Gonna keep repeating this point, because it has a variety of implications for vote counting, what happens if some ballots come in after the deadline, etc.: There is lots of evidence that Democrats sent their ballots in sooner than Republicans.

— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) October 30, 2020

In Florida, for example, mail ballots received by the morning of Oct. 14 were +21 D by party registration. But ballots received in the past 48 hours were just +6 D.

— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) October 30, 2020

Particularly if Ds with outstanding mail ballots are hearing messages from the Biden campaign etc. and are also now more likely to use dropboxes, or to decide to vote in person instead, it's not clear what the partisan composition of late-arriving mail ballots will look like.

— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) October 30, 2020

not pubicly of course, but to themeselves

nice to think they might, but I guess we'd never know.

we don't really need to know so long as they get the fuck out of the way

Perhaps some of them will just say "fuck it, why am I busting my ass for this out-of-touch loser maniac?"

Well, unless they can invalidate enough votes in their state to flip a Senate race to the Republican candidate and thereby keep control of the Senate...

AZ doesn't notify you if ballot was accepted but I just checked some website and mine was accepted, phew. I'm sure that fucker Gosar will be reelected to the House but if AZ goes for Biden I'll be ecstatic.

Like, there's no way the Texas GOP doesn't fuck with the Harris County votes as much as possible if Hegar beats Cornyn by a slim margin.

lmao if the GOP court decisions end up fucking over GOP voters

not pubicly of course, but to themeselves

Pubic shame isn't what it was

They are already trying to throw out 100,000 votes in Harris County

Xxp I did have a brief freakout cause it said it didn't have my ballot. But then I removed the space in my last name (eg vandyke not van dyke). Obv I'm pretty used to that being an issue with my name.

Texas messes with itself.