"Will you shut up, man?" US Politics October 2020

who is Gritty voting for

In a state with many vile institutions the TX Court of Criminal Appeals is the worst with the Supreme Court following closely behind. Incompetent even when not acting ideologically.

NEWS: Facebook to BAN ALL POLITICAL ADS INDEFINITELY, beginning after the polls close on November 3rd

also cracking down on polling place intimidation posts and adding more rules as disinformation and the threat of violence rises approaching Election Day

― Josh in Chicago, Thursday, October 8, 2020 8:38 AM (three weeks ago)

is that a joke

― error prone wolf syndicate (Hadrian VIII), Thursday, October 8, 2020 8:42 AM (three weeks ago)

we will close the barn door after the horse has left the stable

― frogbs, Thursday, October 8, 2020 8:43 AM (three weeks ago)

reminder that they actively violate electoral law constantly in Washington, and spend more on lawyers fighting their violations than it would even cost to pay the relevant fines

also that indefinitely could mean "for two minutes"

― erratic wolf angular guitarist (sic), Thursday, October 8, 2020 9:00 AM (three weeks ago)

well who could have ever predicted this

In October, Facebook announced that after the polls close, it would ban all political ads indefinitely. The purpose of that policy is to prevent a campaign from declaring victory prematurely.

Both policies were part of a high-profile effort to convince the public that the company was taking election integrity seriously.

But on the first day of the moratorium, Facebook approved numerous Trump ads that appeared to violate its pre-election policies. At the same time, Facebook rejected scores of ads, many from groups aligned with Democrats, that do not violate its rules.

Early voting now at 77.4 million — a slowing pace, which is a pity, but given all the numbers up until now maybe not totally surprising. 80 million will be reached today regardless but whether 90 million is made by Saturday morning, we’ll see.

Texas vote total at 94% of 2016 — pretty crazy in a good way.

Unsettling when you hear it framed this way (on the radio this morning): the millions of ballots still in transit that, in 29 states, will be thrown away if they don't arrive by Tuesday.

But I figure most of those 29 states must be solidly Republican anyway, and junked ballots won't matter. Are any of them key swing states?

Desperately hope Biden wins Florida and the whole thing doesn't end up hanging on late declaring states

NEW NBC/Marist poll: In the battleground state of Florida, Biden holds a 4-point lead over Trump

In this final NBC/Marist poll, Biden earns support of 51% of likely voters while Trump earns 47%, a shift since September’s poll when both were tied at 48%https://t.co/aRIekCmVSS

— NBC News PR (@NBCNewsPR) October 29, 2020

i'll be goddamned if this all ends up hinging on chicanery in florida

Good morning!

lmaooooooooooo the hunter biden shit gets more hilarious

I stole Tucker Carlson’s trove of documents.

Awww, just kidding. Of course a major news network wouldn’t have scanned those documents first right? Or make a copy? Nope. They sent their only copy through the mail. If you believe that, then I have a bridge to sell you. https://t.co/JhTVvvUz5H

— Ted Lieu (@tedlieu) October 29, 2020

Unsettling when you hear it framed this way (on the radio this morning): the millions of ballots still in transit that, in 29 states, will be thrown away if they don't arrive by Tuesday.

But I figure most of those 29 states must be solidly Republican anyway, and junked ballots won't matter. Are any of them key swing states?

― clemenza, Thursday, October 29, 2020 9:03 AM bookmarkflaglink

depending on the state, there may be ballot tracking (or there may not...ugh, variance). if there is, and the voter knows their ballot wasn't received, once again, depending on the state, they might be able to vote in person and 'spoil' their ballot so it is not counted if received.

that, of course, depends a lot on the state itself and that the voters are paying that close attention to their ballots en masse, so I'm going to go with your theory that these are mostly Republican states to calm my nerves

so some deceptively good economy numbers today

OCTOBER SURPRISE

https://i.imgur.com/3cIYMeB.png

BREAKING: Wisconsin Republican Party chairman says hackers stole $2.3 million from account dedicated to Trump reelection. https://t.co/5MwwE2zVkl

— The Associated Press (@AP) October 29, 2020

gotta be the same folks who stole Tucker's documents, right?

I'm a bit spooked by that article on 538 that says if Trump wins Pennsylvania, then Biden only has a 30% of winning the election. Pennsylvania looks pretty winnable for Trump!

― Zelda Zonk, Wednesday, October 28, 2020 10:54 PM (yesterday) bookmarkflaglink

I think this needs to be read carefully. If you look at 538's interactive forecast, giving Pennsylvania to Trump *in isolation* does indeed produce a forecast where Biden wins only about 1/3 of the time. But if you simultaneously give Arizona to Biden, then the forecast flips and Trump wins only about 1/3 of the time. Alternatively, if you give Pennsylvania to Trump and both Michigan and Wisconsin to Biden, then Biden still wins a majority of the time.

The forecast model is smart enough to see how states are related to one another, but there's also a lot of uncertainty built in. It doesn't know whether Pennsylvania has gone to Trump because of targeted voter suppression in Philadelphia (which wouldn't necessarily affect other states), or because pollsters have once again underestimated the white working-class vote throughout the Rust Belt.

On the hacking: They need to get ace GOP cyber czar Rudy G on the case.

these desperate emails from Jaime Harrison are getting to be... a lot.

serioulsy wtf

just the subject headings

i'm sorry

please help

I don't like doing this

please Hadrian

I donated a few weeks ago directly to several of the closest Senate races and then donated to a fund that split the donation to several of these races (as well as a couple of others). I now receive about 5 fundraising emails an hour, every hour, every day from various campaigns. Harrison, Warnock and Ossoff the main culprits, though Cal Cunningham pretty obnoxious as well.

We're falling behind!!! WashPo says we're close! Can you rush us $5?

https://64.media.tumblr.com/tumblr_melyan1Woy1qc11wzo2_500.gifv

I just want a gif of Biden sticking his hands in his pockets then pulling the pockets out to show their empty. Is this too much to ask?

LOL totally xp

they're*

jesus

I did the same donate-across-the-board thing, and immediately got the deluge. And just as quickly unsubscribed from everything. On the one hand, I get it. On the other hand, if I've donated once I clearly know about your race. And on the third hand, Jamie Harrison, if I donated to your race multiple times over the past several months, then I not only know about your race, I also know you raked in record amounts of cash, and feel perhaps less pressure to donate even more to you the week before the election when I can donate instead to some other race that hasn't raked in as much.

I donate with Myaddress+actb✧✧✧@gm✧✧✧.c✧✧

Half the campaigns use software that doesn’t understand the + so they never email me.

And I have a filter to trash for the rest.

And there are no senate campaigns set up to effectively spend money they receive this late. It’s a genuinely offensive and harmful grift at this point.

Serious "Dawn of the Dead" vibes here:

https://media.npr.org/assets/img/2020/10/28/ap_20294635623550_slide-505d40cb0efefdca3c357d499051f6f232b6166e-s1500-c85.jpg

(I should probably put that in 2020 images)

I am 100% expecting to continue to receive fundraising emails from the Trump campaign post-election.

This might be my favorite political ad so far:

Biden campaign also going up on Comedy Central and Adult Swim with this animated climate change focused ad pic.twitter.com/0OjZnqz3PZ

— Johnny Verhovek (@JTHVerhovek) October 29, 2020

Do y'all get texts about the election?? So fucking annoying and I don't know how to make them stop. I get at least one a day, often more.

I got 2 last week, the only ones I've gotten this cycle.

I get texts every day. and robocalls too

you know you can unsubscribe from those mailing lists (the email ones anyway)

My PA-based parents were complaining about endless texts the other day

I get regular election-related texts for someone named Maria. A lot of people think this is Maria's phone for some reason, but it is not.

Just text “Stop” to the texts

Perry Farrell once texted me, asking what my favorite Jane's Addiction song was, and I never heard from him again.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gtcb4E0Ado0

How did Trump win? If we have to keep asking then we don’t get the commitment of his voters. 10s of millions of them will vote Tues. They’d walk “750 miles” in the freezing cold “just to hear him speak.” I wouldn’t do that to hear Bernie, Biden or JC himself. THAT’s how they win. https://t.co/YwNDE3PV3C

— Michael Moore (@MMFlint) October 29, 2020

I get regular election-related texts for someone named Maria. A lot of people think this is Maria's phone for some reason, but it is not.

I also get texts aimed at a woman (I can't remember the name; they don't pop up that often) who lives in Wisconsin. I've replied to several of them with:

WRONG NUMBER
NOT (NAME), NOT IN WISCONSIN

A few of them have responded, saying they'll take me off the list.

Perry Farrell once texted me, asking what my favorite Jane's Addiction song was, and I never heard from him again.

― pplains, Thursday, October 29, 2020 11:35 AM (fifty-three seconds ago) bookmarkflaglink

lol

been caught canvassing

ritual de lo electoral

They're not from the same org so STOP doesn't work

lol Michael Moore needs to get a clue about Blaire Eskine

that goddamm nokia

Yeah that MM tweet is gold.