"Will you shut up, man?" US Politics October 2020

yeah, I'm worried too.

they have Biden's chances of winning PA at 86%, his lead may "only" be 5 but the polling has been super steady there, if Trump wins it it's because there's a big shift that would impact all the Midwestern states

that said I think it's one of the states that will count in person before processing mail ballots so be prepared for a heart attack

still, I don't think I can trust the polls after the last time

well if you can't trust the polls what do the odds that 538 gives Trump matter at all then

the polls weren't wrong by much in 2016, but no amount of polling can predict where the undecideds will land. this year there are half as many and all signs point towards them breaking towards Biden

whether one trusts opinion polls or doesn't trust opinion polls is irrelevant to the outcome. roughly 150 million votes will be cast, counted, fought over, and certified and we'll see how it sorts out. god knows how much stupid reasoning and toxic emotions will actuate that voting, but it's the only polling that really means anything and we will find out soon enough.

Kanye WEst wins in shocker

will of the people, man

I think a lot of folks look at these what-if models ass-backwards. A win in one state can't affect the outcome of another state. The models answer the question "given the drivers of polling numbers leading to current predictions, for candidate X to win in state Y, how much change/error would there need to be in the underlying drivers for that to happen, and how would that play across the whole map?" So Trump winning PA is likely only if there is a large error in polling, which if systematically applied in that direction to all the polls, would be a situation where Biden has only a 30% chance. That's answering the question "what if the polls are wrong by 7% in Biden's favour" or similar - that would yield a low likelihood of a win for Biden. But if Trump pulls some fluke or stunt and happens to win PA, it's not like the other states go "well shit, PA went red so let's lean that way". So sure, Trump winning PA is a possibility, but it doesn't drag all the other states unless it's a nationwide driver like Biden has a stroke or something ($DEITY forbid).

demographics play a big part too, if Trump outperforms by 3-4 in states like Florida and Texas it doesn't necessarily mean much for the Midwest. i think 538's model accounts for all that.

In new petition, GOP candidates and state Rep. Toth ask Texas Supreme Court to REJECT Harris County votes cast in drive-thru lanes (100,000+ so far), calling it illegal curbside voting reserved for sick/disabled.
A new argument after earlier bid to end drive-thru voting failed.

— Chuck Lindell (@chucklindell) October 28, 2020

If these bastards pull this off, it's war.

I'm hoping for a Biden win in PA, but as much as I want it to happen, it seems like there is powerful support there for Trump, so I'm worried

Please focus your worry to some limited area of PA, preferably fewer than 1000 registered voters, so as to have the maximum impact on the votes they cast. Generalizing your worry across the entire state only dilutes its power.

who is Gritty voting for

In a state with many vile institutions the TX Court of Criminal Appeals is the worst with the Supreme Court following closely behind. Incompetent even when not acting ideologically.

NEWS: Facebook to BAN ALL POLITICAL ADS INDEFINITELY, beginning after the polls close on November 3rd

also cracking down on polling place intimidation posts and adding more rules as disinformation and the threat of violence rises approaching Election Day

― Josh in Chicago, Thursday, October 8, 2020 8:38 AM (three weeks ago)

is that a joke

― error prone wolf syndicate (Hadrian VIII), Thursday, October 8, 2020 8:42 AM (three weeks ago)

we will close the barn door after the horse has left the stable

― frogbs, Thursday, October 8, 2020 8:43 AM (three weeks ago)

reminder that they actively violate electoral law constantly in Washington, and spend more on lawyers fighting their violations than it would even cost to pay the relevant fines

also that indefinitely could mean "for two minutes"

― erratic wolf angular guitarist (sic), Thursday, October 8, 2020 9:00 AM (three weeks ago)

well who could have ever predicted this

In October, Facebook announced that after the polls close, it would ban all political ads indefinitely. The purpose of that policy is to prevent a campaign from declaring victory prematurely.

Both policies were part of a high-profile effort to convince the public that the company was taking election integrity seriously.

But on the first day of the moratorium, Facebook approved numerous Trump ads that appeared to violate its pre-election policies. At the same time, Facebook rejected scores of ads, many from groups aligned with Democrats, that do not violate its rules.

Early voting now at 77.4 million — a slowing pace, which is a pity, but given all the numbers up until now maybe not totally surprising. 80 million will be reached today regardless but whether 90 million is made by Saturday morning, we’ll see.

Texas vote total at 94% of 2016 — pretty crazy in a good way.

Unsettling when you hear it framed this way (on the radio this morning): the millions of ballots still in transit that, in 29 states, will be thrown away if they don't arrive by Tuesday.

But I figure most of those 29 states must be solidly Republican anyway, and junked ballots won't matter. Are any of them key swing states?

Desperately hope Biden wins Florida and the whole thing doesn't end up hanging on late declaring states

NEW NBC/Marist poll: In the battleground state of Florida, Biden holds a 4-point lead over Trump

In this final NBC/Marist poll, Biden earns support of 51% of likely voters while Trump earns 47%, a shift since September’s poll when both were tied at 48%https://t.co/aRIekCmVSS

— NBC News PR (@NBCNewsPR) October 29, 2020

i'll be goddamned if this all ends up hinging on chicanery in florida

Good morning!

lmaooooooooooo the hunter biden shit gets more hilarious

I stole Tucker Carlson’s trove of documents.

Awww, just kidding. Of course a major news network wouldn’t have scanned those documents first right? Or make a copy? Nope. They sent their only copy through the mail. If you believe that, then I have a bridge to sell you. https://t.co/JhTVvvUz5H

— Ted Lieu (@tedlieu) October 29, 2020

Unsettling when you hear it framed this way (on the radio this morning): the millions of ballots still in transit that, in 29 states, will be thrown away if they don't arrive by Tuesday.

But I figure most of those 29 states must be solidly Republican anyway, and junked ballots won't matter. Are any of them key swing states?

― clemenza, Thursday, October 29, 2020 9:03 AM bookmarkflaglink

depending on the state, there may be ballot tracking (or there may not...ugh, variance). if there is, and the voter knows their ballot wasn't received, once again, depending on the state, they might be able to vote in person and 'spoil' their ballot so it is not counted if received.

that, of course, depends a lot on the state itself and that the voters are paying that close attention to their ballots en masse, so I'm going to go with your theory that these are mostly Republican states to calm my nerves

so some deceptively good economy numbers today

OCTOBER SURPRISE

https://i.imgur.com/3cIYMeB.png

BREAKING: Wisconsin Republican Party chairman says hackers stole $2.3 million from account dedicated to Trump reelection. https://t.co/5MwwE2zVkl

— The Associated Press (@AP) October 29, 2020

gotta be the same folks who stole Tucker's documents, right?

I'm a bit spooked by that article on 538 that says if Trump wins Pennsylvania, then Biden only has a 30% of winning the election. Pennsylvania looks pretty winnable for Trump!

― Zelda Zonk, Wednesday, October 28, 2020 10:54 PM (yesterday) bookmarkflaglink

I think this needs to be read carefully. If you look at 538's interactive forecast, giving Pennsylvania to Trump *in isolation* does indeed produce a forecast where Biden wins only about 1/3 of the time. But if you simultaneously give Arizona to Biden, then the forecast flips and Trump wins only about 1/3 of the time. Alternatively, if you give Pennsylvania to Trump and both Michigan and Wisconsin to Biden, then Biden still wins a majority of the time.

The forecast model is smart enough to see how states are related to one another, but there's also a lot of uncertainty built in. It doesn't know whether Pennsylvania has gone to Trump because of targeted voter suppression in Philadelphia (which wouldn't necessarily affect other states), or because pollsters have once again underestimated the white working-class vote throughout the Rust Belt.

On the hacking: They need to get ace GOP cyber czar Rudy G on the case.

these desperate emails from Jaime Harrison are getting to be... a lot.

serioulsy wtf

just the subject headings

i'm sorry

please help

I don't like doing this

please Hadrian

I donated a few weeks ago directly to several of the closest Senate races and then donated to a fund that split the donation to several of these races (as well as a couple of others). I now receive about 5 fundraising emails an hour, every hour, every day from various campaigns. Harrison, Warnock and Ossoff the main culprits, though Cal Cunningham pretty obnoxious as well.

We're falling behind!!! WashPo says we're close! Can you rush us $5?

https://64.media.tumblr.com/tumblr_melyan1Woy1qc11wzo2_500.gifv

I just want a gif of Biden sticking his hands in his pockets then pulling the pockets out to show their empty. Is this too much to ask?

LOL totally xp

they're*

jesus

I did the same donate-across-the-board thing, and immediately got the deluge. And just as quickly unsubscribed from everything. On the one hand, I get it. On the other hand, if I've donated once I clearly know about your race. And on the third hand, Jamie Harrison, if I donated to your race multiple times over the past several months, then I not only know about your race, I also know you raked in record amounts of cash, and feel perhaps less pressure to donate even more to you the week before the election when I can donate instead to some other race that hasn't raked in as much.

I donate with Myaddress+actb✧✧✧@gm✧✧✧.c✧✧

Half the campaigns use software that doesn’t understand the + so they never email me.

And I have a filter to trash for the rest.

And there are no senate campaigns set up to effectively spend money they receive this late. It’s a genuinely offensive and harmful grift at this point.

Serious "Dawn of the Dead" vibes here:

https://media.npr.org/assets/img/2020/10/28/ap_20294635623550_slide-505d40cb0efefdca3c357d499051f6f232b6166e-s1500-c85.jpg

(I should probably put that in 2020 images)

I am 100% expecting to continue to receive fundraising emails from the Trump campaign post-election.

This might be my favorite political ad so far:

Biden campaign also going up on Comedy Central and Adult Swim with this animated climate change focused ad pic.twitter.com/0OjZnqz3PZ

— Johnny Verhovek (@JTHVerhovek) October 29, 2020

Do y'all get texts about the election?? So fucking annoying and I don't know how to make them stop. I get at least one a day, often more.

I got 2 last week, the only ones I've gotten this cycle.

I get texts every day. and robocalls too

you know you can unsubscribe from those mailing lists (the email ones anyway)