"Will you shut up, man?" US Politics October 2020

Sorry, omitted the following: Basically, the SC didn't want to fuck with a PA Supreme Court ruling interpreting the PA Constitution, but was fine telling the WI Federal Court to back off.

Funny thing i just read

"Liberals are always shocked when originalist justices are sworn in and produce favorable results. We have to stop thinking of justices as politicians. It’s about an interpretive approach to the law and I think people will be surprised"

Thanks PBKR!

Oh god thank you I was trying to quote from the podcast and I just couldn't get my head around it.

The insanity of that decision is in the details, wherein Alito more or less states that the ballots should be allowed but they reserve the the right to throw them out later, after they're counted.

I assume the reason the WI case went Federal was because the WI Supreme Court was packed with conservative assholes, meaning the Dems felt they had not chance there.

Yes.

In a separate concurrence, Justice Kavanaugh wrote that “the Constitution principally entrusts politically accountable state legislatures, not unelected federal judges, with the responsibility to address the health and safety of the people during the Covid-19 pandemic.”

Sure except WI is SO horrifically gerrymandered that Republicans won like 64 (out of 99) Senate seats with only 40-something % of the vote. So sure, Kavanaugh can claim that they should show deference to the state when they know Repubs have the state locked up.

How trusting he is!

Trump, dismissing Anonymous as a low-level staffer he didn't know: " I thought it might have been Hope Hicks, I thought it might have been Jared."

— Annie Karni (@anniekarni) October 28, 2020

I thought it might have been Hope
Thought it might be the Kush
A real live lover, could have been a book

Like the paranoid last days of the Khmer Rouge.. spies, counterrevolutionaries everywhere!

Sure except WI is SO horrifically gerrymandered that Republicans won like 64 (out of 99) Senate seats with only 40-something % of the vote. So sure, Kavanaugh can claim that they should show deference to the state when they know Repubs have the state locked up.

― Ima Gardener (in orbit), Wednesday, October 28, 2020 6:28 PM (twelve minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink

For sure. I don't agree with any of this even from a legal standpoint, just articulating their bullshit Federalist Society "judicial restraint" rationale.

I'm not contesting anything you said, I can barely comprehend the facts of the matter! Just pointing out that the WI legislature basically CAN'T be held accountable by the people of the state.

Yeah these assholes have pretty much permafucked my state, don’t let it happen to you

Lissen, we already dragged Michigan once today, I don't know what else to tell you.

Lover of Nixon (or LON for short) (Neanderthal)
Posted: October 28, 2020 at 3:48:04 PM
hearing Boboli to the tune of Springsteen's "Cover Me"
#onethread

Ah've been
lookin' for a pizza that'll come round here
and Boboli

i hear "boboli" and im thinkin amadou and mariam

On the Kavanaugh thing, allowing for the possibility that he was just interpreting the law differently than the other justices, it seems like a bid for power. The fulcrum of the court at this point is Roberts +1 conservative, and being that +1 could have a lot of sway.

Are those political lean hit points?

Kavanaugh is 100% the ideological center of the current Supreme Court

that sounds right

Another one?

BREAKING: Supreme Court rejects Trump bid to block North Carolina mail-in ballot deadline extension

— Lawrence Hurley (@lawrencehurley) October 28, 2020

shout-out to his family (DJP) at 4:37 28 Oct 20

Tony Bobulinski
Mr. Tony Bobulinski (ZILCH)

lol

Trump, who shooed @MarthaMcSally off stage at his last AZ rally without letting her speak, just called her up and told her “you’ve got one minute.” And she is speaking very quickly!

— Eli Stokols (@EliStokols) October 28, 2020

FiveThirtyEight national average, 6 days before the election

2016
Clinton: 45.1%
Trump: 42.0%

2020
Biden: 51.8%
Trump: 42.9%

— Niles Edward Francis (@NilesGApol) October 29, 2020

Money money money

Mike Bloomberg's Independence USA PAC out with $22.5 million more in the presidential race https://t.co/wfc7AwAGEK

— Rob Pyers (@rpyers) October 29, 2020

I'm a bit spooked by that article on 538 that says if Trump wins Pennsylvania, then Biden only has a 30% of winning the election. Pennsylvania looks pretty winnable for Trump!

yeah, I'm worried too.

they have Biden's chances of winning PA at 86%, his lead may "only" be 5 but the polling has been super steady there, if Trump wins it it's because there's a big shift that would impact all the Midwestern states

that said I think it's one of the states that will count in person before processing mail ballots so be prepared for a heart attack

still, I don't think I can trust the polls after the last time

well if you can't trust the polls what do the odds that 538 gives Trump matter at all then

the polls weren't wrong by much in 2016, but no amount of polling can predict where the undecideds will land. this year there are half as many and all signs point towards them breaking towards Biden

whether one trusts opinion polls or doesn't trust opinion polls is irrelevant to the outcome. roughly 150 million votes will be cast, counted, fought over, and certified and we'll see how it sorts out. god knows how much stupid reasoning and toxic emotions will actuate that voting, but it's the only polling that really means anything and we will find out soon enough.

Kanye WEst wins in shocker

will of the people, man

I think a lot of folks look at these what-if models ass-backwards. A win in one state can't affect the outcome of another state. The models answer the question "given the drivers of polling numbers leading to current predictions, for candidate X to win in state Y, how much change/error would there need to be in the underlying drivers for that to happen, and how would that play across the whole map?" So Trump winning PA is likely only if there is a large error in polling, which if systematically applied in that direction to all the polls, would be a situation where Biden has only a 30% chance. That's answering the question "what if the polls are wrong by 7% in Biden's favour" or similar - that would yield a low likelihood of a win for Biden. But if Trump pulls some fluke or stunt and happens to win PA, it's not like the other states go "well shit, PA went red so let's lean that way". So sure, Trump winning PA is a possibility, but it doesn't drag all the other states unless it's a nationwide driver like Biden has a stroke or something ($DEITY forbid).

demographics play a big part too, if Trump outperforms by 3-4 in states like Florida and Texas it doesn't necessarily mean much for the Midwest. i think 538's model accounts for all that.

In new petition, GOP candidates and state Rep. Toth ask Texas Supreme Court to REJECT Harris County votes cast in drive-thru lanes (100,000+ so far), calling it illegal curbside voting reserved for sick/disabled.
A new argument after earlier bid to end drive-thru voting failed.

— Chuck Lindell (@chucklindell) October 28, 2020

If these bastards pull this off, it's war.

I'm hoping for a Biden win in PA, but as much as I want it to happen, it seems like there is powerful support there for Trump, so I'm worried

Please focus your worry to some limited area of PA, preferably fewer than 1000 registered voters, so as to have the maximum impact on the votes they cast. Generalizing your worry across the entire state only dilutes its power.

who is Gritty voting for

In a state with many vile institutions the TX Court of Criminal Appeals is the worst with the Supreme Court following closely behind. Incompetent even when not acting ideologically.

NEWS: Facebook to BAN ALL POLITICAL ADS INDEFINITELY, beginning after the polls close on November 3rd

also cracking down on polling place intimidation posts and adding more rules as disinformation and the threat of violence rises approaching Election Day

― Josh in Chicago, Thursday, October 8, 2020 8:38 AM (three weeks ago)

is that a joke

― error prone wolf syndicate (Hadrian VIII), Thursday, October 8, 2020 8:42 AM (three weeks ago)

we will close the barn door after the horse has left the stable

― frogbs, Thursday, October 8, 2020 8:43 AM (three weeks ago)

reminder that they actively violate electoral law constantly in Washington, and spend more on lawyers fighting their violations than it would even cost to pay the relevant fines

also that indefinitely could mean "for two minutes"

― erratic wolf angular guitarist (sic), Thursday, October 8, 2020 9:00 AM (three weeks ago)

well who could have ever predicted this

In October, Facebook announced that after the polls close, it would ban all political ads indefinitely. The purpose of that policy is to prevent a campaign from declaring victory prematurely.

Both policies were part of a high-profile effort to convince the public that the company was taking election integrity seriously.

But on the first day of the moratorium, Facebook approved numerous Trump ads that appeared to violate its pre-election policies. At the same time, Facebook rejected scores of ads, many from groups aligned with Democrats, that do not violate its rules.

Early voting now at 77.4 million — a slowing pace, which is a pity, but given all the numbers up until now maybe not totally surprising. 80 million will be reached today regardless but whether 90 million is made by Saturday morning, we’ll see.

Texas vote total at 94% of 2016 — pretty crazy in a good way.

Unsettling when you hear it framed this way (on the radio this morning): the millions of ballots still in transit that, in 29 states, will be thrown away if they don't arrive by Tuesday.

But I figure most of those 29 states must be solidly Republican anyway, and junked ballots won't matter. Are any of them key swing states?

Desperately hope Biden wins Florida and the whole thing doesn't end up hanging on late declaring states

NEW NBC/Marist poll: In the battleground state of Florida, Biden holds a 4-point lead over Trump

In this final NBC/Marist poll, Biden earns support of 51% of likely voters while Trump earns 47%, a shift since September’s poll when both were tied at 48%https://t.co/aRIekCmVSS

— NBC News PR (@NBCNewsPR) October 29, 2020

i'll be goddamned if this all ends up hinging on chicanery in florida

Good morning!

lmaooooooooooo the hunter biden shit gets more hilarious

I stole Tucker Carlson’s trove of documents.

Awww, just kidding. Of course a major news network wouldn’t have scanned those documents first right? Or make a copy? Nope. They sent their only copy through the mail. If you believe that, then I have a bridge to sell you. https://t.co/JhTVvvUz5H

— Ted Lieu (@tedlieu) October 29, 2020