"Will you shut up, man?" US Politics October 2020

Tony Bobulinski
Mr. Tony Bobulinski (ZILCH)

Barrett and Kavanugh have plenty of time to make their marks but Alito has always seemed the most transparently evil

what's different between Pennsylvania and Wisconsin that there'd be different rulings?

― Lover of Nixon (or LON for short) (Neanderthal)

Answers to be found in this podcast, "Strict Scrutiny":
https://strictscrutinypodcast.com/podcast/hot-mess/

I don't 100% remember the details in part bc it was a little murky, also bc the justices didn't give any notes or commentary on the PA ruling because that case came through the shadow docket? (Oooooh.)

Is that where they decide who gets shadowbanned?

the whole "Trump voters are intentionally skewing the polls" talking point is so idiotic, not only did this by and large not happen in 2016 but there's nothing in the world these idiots want more then for Trump to be leading in the polls, like are you telling me guys like Charlie Kirk & Bill Mitchell wouldn't go fucking crazy if there was a poll showing the race tied

furthermore the polls do seem to be pretty much in line with a President who has not garnered a net positive approval rating at a single point during his presidency, which I believe is a first

"the Republican football team likes to trail by 14 by pretending they're bad at football and then play for real in the 4th quarter"

for days I couldn't figure out what Bobulinski's name reminded me of. I've learned the truth:

https://www.kroger.com/product/images/xlarge/front/0007313001237

hearing Boboli to the tune of Springsteen's "Cover Me"

Pizzagate!

If they do decide the air that Bobulinski interview, I can almost guarantee that Hunter Biden won't be elected president.

Was Bobulinski one of the Sweathogs

what's different between Pennsylvania and Wisconsin that there'd be different rulings?

Because PA and WI have different voting laws. Iirc, PA law allows the deadline to be extended and WI pretty explicitly does not.

"the Republican football team likes to trail by 14 by pretending they're bad at football and then play for real in the 4th quarter"

what's different between Pennsylvania and Wisconsin that there'd be different rulings?

― Lover of Nixon (or LON for short) (Neanderthal), Wednesday, October 28, 2020 5:33 PM (twenty-five minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink

Remember these are decisions whether to take the underlying appeals (or not), not decisions on the merits, so there are limited written opinions (unlike cases where the SC decides to take the appeal). One significant difference appears to be that the PA ruling appealed from was by the PA Supreme Court (i.e. the highest court in PA) while the WI ruling appealed from was by the Seventh Circuit Court of Appeals (i.e. the Federal Court just below the US Supreme Court with jurisdiction over WI).

Roberts:

“While the Pennsylvania applications implicated the authority of state courts to apply their own constitutions to election regulations, this case involves federal intrusion on state lawmaking processes,” the chief justice wrote. “Different bodies of law and different precedents govern these two situations and require, in these particular circumstances, that we allow the modification of election rules in Pennsylvania but not Wisconsin.”

Golden Boy:

In a separate concurrence, Justice Kavanaugh wrote that “the Constitution principally entrusts politically accountable state legislatures, not unelected federal judges, with the responsibility to address the health and safety of the people during the Covid-19 pandemic.”

In short, procedure matters, kids.

NB: I am an atty but not an expert, but I assume the reason the WI case went Federal was because the WI Supreme Court was packed with conservative assholes, meaning the Dems felt they had not chance there.

Sorry, omitted the following: Basically, the SC didn't want to fuck with a PA Supreme Court ruling interpreting the PA Constitution, but was fine telling the WI Federal Court to back off.

Funny thing i just read

"Liberals are always shocked when originalist justices are sworn in and produce favorable results. We have to stop thinking of justices as politicians. It’s about an interpretive approach to the law and I think people will be surprised"

Thanks PBKR!

Oh god thank you I was trying to quote from the podcast and I just couldn't get my head around it.

The insanity of that decision is in the details, wherein Alito more or less states that the ballots should be allowed but they reserve the the right to throw them out later, after they're counted.

I assume the reason the WI case went Federal was because the WI Supreme Court was packed with conservative assholes, meaning the Dems felt they had not chance there.

Yes.

In a separate concurrence, Justice Kavanaugh wrote that “the Constitution principally entrusts politically accountable state legislatures, not unelected federal judges, with the responsibility to address the health and safety of the people during the Covid-19 pandemic.”

Sure except WI is SO horrifically gerrymandered that Republicans won like 64 (out of 99) Senate seats with only 40-something % of the vote. So sure, Kavanaugh can claim that they should show deference to the state when they know Repubs have the state locked up.

How trusting he is!

Trump, dismissing Anonymous as a low-level staffer he didn't know: " I thought it might have been Hope Hicks, I thought it might have been Jared."

— Annie Karni (@anniekarni) October 28, 2020

I thought it might have been Hope
Thought it might be the Kush
A real live lover, could have been a book

Like the paranoid last days of the Khmer Rouge.. spies, counterrevolutionaries everywhere!

Sure except WI is SO horrifically gerrymandered that Republicans won like 64 (out of 99) Senate seats with only 40-something % of the vote. So sure, Kavanaugh can claim that they should show deference to the state when they know Repubs have the state locked up.

― Ima Gardener (in orbit), Wednesday, October 28, 2020 6:28 PM (twelve minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink

For sure. I don't agree with any of this even from a legal standpoint, just articulating their bullshit Federalist Society "judicial restraint" rationale.

I'm not contesting anything you said, I can barely comprehend the facts of the matter! Just pointing out that the WI legislature basically CAN'T be held accountable by the people of the state.

Yeah these assholes have pretty much permafucked my state, don’t let it happen to you

Lissen, we already dragged Michigan once today, I don't know what else to tell you.

Lover of Nixon (or LON for short) (Neanderthal)
Posted: October 28, 2020 at 3:48:04 PM
hearing Boboli to the tune of Springsteen's "Cover Me"
#onethread

Ah've been
lookin' for a pizza that'll come round here
and Boboli

i hear "boboli" and im thinkin amadou and mariam

On the Kavanaugh thing, allowing for the possibility that he was just interpreting the law differently than the other justices, it seems like a bid for power. The fulcrum of the court at this point is Roberts +1 conservative, and being that +1 could have a lot of sway.

Are those political lean hit points?

Kavanaugh is 100% the ideological center of the current Supreme Court

that sounds right

Another one?

BREAKING: Supreme Court rejects Trump bid to block North Carolina mail-in ballot deadline extension

— Lawrence Hurley (@lawrencehurley) October 28, 2020

shout-out to his family (DJP) at 4:37 28 Oct 20

Tony Bobulinski
Mr. Tony Bobulinski (ZILCH)

lol

Trump, who shooed @MarthaMcSally off stage at his last AZ rally without letting her speak, just called her up and told her “you’ve got one minute.” And she is speaking very quickly!

— Eli Stokols (@EliStokols) October 28, 2020

FiveThirtyEight national average, 6 days before the election

2016
Clinton: 45.1%
Trump: 42.0%

2020
Biden: 51.8%
Trump: 42.9%

— Niles Edward Francis (@NilesGApol) October 29, 2020

Money money money

Mike Bloomberg's Independence USA PAC out with $22.5 million more in the presidential race https://t.co/wfc7AwAGEK

— Rob Pyers (@rpyers) October 29, 2020

I'm a bit spooked by that article on 538 that says if Trump wins Pennsylvania, then Biden only has a 30% of winning the election. Pennsylvania looks pretty winnable for Trump!

yeah, I'm worried too.

they have Biden's chances of winning PA at 86%, his lead may "only" be 5 but the polling has been super steady there, if Trump wins it it's because there's a big shift that would impact all the Midwestern states

that said I think it's one of the states that will count in person before processing mail ballots so be prepared for a heart attack

still, I don't think I can trust the polls after the last time

well if you can't trust the polls what do the odds that 538 gives Trump matter at all then

the polls weren't wrong by much in 2016, but no amount of polling can predict where the undecideds will land. this year there are half as many and all signs point towards them breaking towards Biden

whether one trusts opinion polls or doesn't trust opinion polls is irrelevant to the outcome. roughly 150 million votes will be cast, counted, fought over, and certified and we'll see how it sorts out. god knows how much stupid reasoning and toxic emotions will actuate that voting, but it's the only polling that really means anything and we will find out soon enough.

Kanye WEst wins in shocker

will of the people, man

I think a lot of folks look at these what-if models ass-backwards. A win in one state can't affect the outcome of another state. The models answer the question "given the drivers of polling numbers leading to current predictions, for candidate X to win in state Y, how much change/error would there need to be in the underlying drivers for that to happen, and how would that play across the whole map?" So Trump winning PA is likely only if there is a large error in polling, which if systematically applied in that direction to all the polls, would be a situation where Biden has only a 30% chance. That's answering the question "what if the polls are wrong by 7% in Biden's favour" or similar - that would yield a low likelihood of a win for Biden. But if Trump pulls some fluke or stunt and happens to win PA, it's not like the other states go "well shit, PA went red so let's lean that way". So sure, Trump winning PA is a possibility, but it doesn't drag all the other states unless it's a nationwide driver like Biden has a stroke or something ($DEITY forbid).