"Will you shut up, man?" US Politics October 2020

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-to-make-of-that-new-wisconsin-poll-that-has-biden-way-ahead/?ex_cid=story-twitter

lol there's a Biden +17 from a pretty good pollster

Fuck it, why stop at +17? I say go higher!

like Florida in 2018.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/27/opinion/2020-election-pennsylvania.html

Lol why do they let these clowns write op-eds

Leeeeeeeeeeroy Jenkins

McAllen the give away herehttps://t.co/akYA6s7rsF

— Nate Cohn (@Nate_Cohn) October 28, 2020

xp Cletus Safari, never say die?

You guys, there have always been a bunch of shithead Northerners who fly Confederate flags; I think people just assumed they were Lynyrd Skynyrd fans and didn't interrogate what they were seeing.

I have a family member who worked for the Bay City health dept for years and absolutely LOATHES it there because of the people.

West Michigan is my entire heart but it's not because of the people, it's because of the landscape (mostly the lakes).

Early vote total now 73 million — *seven* million from yesterday morning. Whether or not that’s a new average who knows but it’s looking pretty clear we’ll hit 80 million at some point tomorrow before noon and 90 million by Saturday morning if not earlier. 100 million by Election Day morning increasingly possible.

folks i have some news the whole fucking country is racist as fuck.

Not really. Florida 2018 swung in the opposite direction than the rest of the country. It’s not that it didn’t swing far enough to flip which is what we expect of Texas. Florida swung the wrong way.

― 𝔠𝔞𝔢𝔨 (caek), Wednesday, October 28, 2020

You misunderstood me or I wasn't clear. Expectations. We expected Gillum to beat DeSantis by at least three points and for Nelson to narrowly win.

Got u

I have a family member who worked for the Bay City health dept for years and absolutely LOATHES it there because of the people.

That's where my father in law lives and I really could never stand to live there. It's such a weird city, a lot of people struggling economically but also a sprinkling of super, super rich people all united in their casual racism. I was slightly heartened to see more Biden signs than Trump signs when I was last up that way.

There was a dude a couple grades older than me who had confederate flag on his pickup truck. Early 90s. In the Chicago suburbs. There was always talk that he was about to get his ass kicked for it but never happened.

Is anyone else getting 20 somewhat unhinged emails a day from Jaime Harrison? The one with the subject line “are you up?” is my favorite.

I wish election day was like three weeks ago. I know a lot of people have already voted but I'm starting to worry there's a sizable contingent who sees the beginning of a really shitty COVID winter ahead of us and would rather adopt Trump's magical thinking than confront reality. basically you have one candidate saying "this is a real thing that sucks but we're going to get through it" and another saying "everything is already fine, do whatever you want, live it up"

Arkansas and Michigan were admitted together to keep the slave/free dynamic going. Hearing about confederate flags being flown up there makes me go 50%-wtf and 50%-lol, Michigan gonna be Michigan.

Funny thing is that most of the people I know with Michigan ties are African Americans whose not-so-distant ancestors moved from the Delta to Detroit.

TEXAS continues to be a stunner: Texas voters cast more than 8.1 million votes, 91% of total 2016 vote, so far according to data posted on the Texas Secretary of State website Wednesday morning. 6 days until election day.

— Abby D. Phillip (@abbydphillip) October 28, 2020

Meantime people like Wasserman et al are basically going "Damn, that's serious" about the Wisconsin poll, so...not as much of a fluke as might be thought?

but on the other hand, nate cohn's being more like "daaaaaang, look at that"

Is anyone else getting 20 somewhat unhinged emails a day from Jaime Harrison?

No but I got one from Madeleine Albright this morning! That was exciting.

COVID's devastating Wisconsin now, so to respond to pplains' post, it's possible Wisconsin residents will vote fully aware of what the president has wrought.

Wisconsin people can hold a grudge

signed, a Minnesotan

But...but...Nate Silver says it's a "persuasion election" and turnout is meaningless...

Early voting data can maaaayyybee give you some hints at *turnout*, but

i) it's by party registration, not party ID
ii) there's usually not a great way to tell how much the early vote is cannibalizing the late vote
iii) this is a persuasion election not a turnout one

— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) October 28, 2020

apparently neighboring states are kind of reflecting the results - Iowa, a state Trump carried in 2016 by 10, has Biden with a slight lead

In other words, as someone pointed out upthread, that is his way of hedging things this morning as he will have to do every 4 hours from now through election day.

xpost

Is anyone else getting 20 somewhat unhinged emails a day from Jaime Harrison? The one with the subject line “are you up?” is my favorite.

― JoeStork, Wednesday, October 28, 2020 11:14 AM bookmarkflaglink

yup. it feels like i'm dating an insecure lover

From: Jaime Harrison
Subject: Please don't open my last email, I'm sorry. What I meant to s-

loool

MC5 used to fly the rebel flag as a sign of rebellion. you see it in old photos of them. Shame seems to be a bit shortsighted, thunk they was radical.

There was a dude a couple grades older than me who had confederate flag on his pickup truck. Early 90s. In the Chicago suburbs. There was always talk that he was about to get his ass kicked for it but never happened.

― A True White Kid that can Jump (Granny Dainger), Wednesday, October 28, 2020 10:14 AM (thirty minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink

Who?

I get a lot of texts from Jaime Harrison. "Y'all, it's close!" That sort of thing.

seemed like there was some attempts at reclamation of confederate flag in rock music in the 70s-maybe early 80s (Tom Petty, et al) but at some point it was a... Lost Cause

i got a text from Nancy Pelosi that said "a/s/l?"

xpost icwydt

I wonder where people got the idea that putting a confederate flag on a car was cool?

http://www.nbc12.com/resizer/eo1NTacBOvJt1FMlhCNjhOgg3uo%3D/1200x600/cloudfront-us-east-1.images.arcpublishing.com/raycom/WFX3CDWW5BHMJBZD6SXLCACGIM.jpg

Let's see, what else could make Wisconsin and nearby more annoyed at how a pandemic has been handled, hmm...

BREAKING: #Wisconsin is pausing all football-related activities. Saturday’s game at Nebraska will not be played due to an elevated number of COVID-19 cases.

— Bruce Feldman (@BruceFeldmanCFB) October 28, 2020

for a second I thought that said they were pausing all non-football activities

Or more annoyed at the libs shutting things down because of covid. Could go either way, just saying.

for a second I thought that said they were pausing all non-football activities

― Lover of Nixon (or LON for short) (Neanderthal),

lol me too

ah yes, this is one of those non-turnout elections I've been hearing so much about

Or more annoyed at the libs shutting things down because of covid. Could go either way, just saying.

― change display name (Jordan), Wednesday, October 28, 2020 11:03 AM (three minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink

this is a different story because it's not precautionary, 20+ players on the team have the disease

yeah....but the libs want to shut them down because of it. no fair

about now i would normally tap the sign that says "2020 early voting numbers are not useful if you want to make predictions about the outcome of close elections, and you should mostly ignore them and look at the polls".

and that's true!

but you would really rather your voters had already voted given this is happening:

We haven't see positive testing rates like this at any point during the US pandemic. Overall US positive test rate has shot up to 7.3%, and testing has decreased.

South Dakota 43.4%
Idaho 34.8%
Wyoming 31.5%
Wisconsin 28.0%
Iowa 26.4%
Alabama 25.2%
Nebraska 21.8%
Kansas 20.7%

— Eric Topol (@EricTopol) October 28, 2020

with the exception of el paso, the timing literally could not be worse for trump.

yes. it is getting frightening. I'm very glad i had a chance to vote early, by mail, and i really feel for those of you out there who have to go do it in person, right now. fuck this.

Militia leader Stewart Rhodes tells Alex Jones that his group will be at polling locations and is ready to kill Democrats https://t.co/fHJSRQI6kQ pic.twitter.com/7oXjrupuRF

— Media Matters (@mmfa) October 28, 2020

I always get a grim LOL from tweets/headlines that include "... due to COVID" when announcing really obviously unsafe things being cancelled this fucking far into the outbreak. Like "Winconsin pausing all football-related activities - it appears that there is some sort of airborne virus that may pose a danger - we are looking into it, more info as it becomes available"

i mean, in trump's defense though, who could have seen a spike in cases coming this winter? it was going down as recently as a few weeks ago, trends were showing it going down to 0% by december.

https://i.imgur.com/Vgw9qtJ.jpg