"Will you shut up, man?" US Politics October 2020

Melania as a relatable, hardworking soccer mom is a little beyond the pale.

Don't all yr white suburban women aspire to be like a frosty Eastern European fashion model who doesn't care about anything? And who is the famousky distant third wife of a rich fat hideous asshole?

Imma go ask my wife and I will report back.

The Daily podcast had an episode about the women who changed their minds since 2016, ie white suburban moms. It was a SUPER interesting story from an organizing perspective. Total "wine mom" stereotypes everywhere BUT some very touching moments. Worth a listen imo.

Re Trump and Florida ads: this makes sense, but also reflecting a pattern elsewhere (this is also happening in Texas IIRC). Might not seem like much but it means RNC money they can’t use elsewhere in turn:

According to Ad Analytics, the suggestion that Trump is going dark on his TV buys in FL is false

The campaign switched payee to the RNC. Ads are still running.

The election is in a week.

— Marc Caputo (@MarcACaputo) October 27, 2020

https://www.hindustantimes.com/rf/image_size_960x540/HT/p2/2020/08/28/Pictures/_10d553ce-e931-11ea-b0d0-732c2aa3f4c8.jpg

I AM MELANIA

i support wine moms

https://media.gq.com/photos/56d3fcb9062ab67b27fa8c75/4:3/w_475,h_356,c_limit/Screen%20Shot%202016-02-29%20at%2012.08.46%20AM.png

Florida is so essential that the initial news about the ads made me scowl.

I could maybe believe they're pulling ads in Florida because they think they have it in the bag.

By which you mean, colostomy bag

Did Trump really make a joke about Biden being shot?

https://www.esquire.com/news-politics/a34487228/supreme-court-throw-out-mail-ballots/?fbclid=IwAR2sH2MUqzmnbbdAAAhh_UupTuV3-xlvAaJBmaejSA8TLV2h66plpMboTjk

If you're pro Trump you're either dumb, an asshole, or a dumb asshole, no matter your demographic

Boy did you just let a large part of my extended family off the hook.

xp ugh i can't handle the outrage-click articles right now

While not diminishing how fucked up the Wisconsin ruling was, that Esquire piece is shook alarmism.

Got one paragraph in and wondered if umair haque wrote it

Like yes - that ruling could possibly throw out legitimate ballots by the thousand that were only late due to a gutted mail service. No argument, I'm angry about that.

This is 3 million miles away from "nobody vote by mail, none of them will be counted, all will be discarded" (which the article basically says)

Idg why journalists think it's a good idea to give liberals heart attacks a week out. There is nothing we can do in advance to stop any fuckery. And I doubt any of us are going to sit idly by and take it if and when it happens.

But if millions of voters are experiencing mental health crises, ain't gonna be in any shape to protest

Idg why journalists think it's a good idea to give liberals heart attacks a week out

it gets clicks

fbclid=IwAR2sH2MUqzmnbbdAAAhh_UupTuV3-xlvAaJBmaejSA8TLV2h66plpMboTjk

Rule one of journalism is that The Story Has To Change

Wasserman notes this, and it's worth remembering:

We'll be watching Miami-Dade closely in the remaining early vote *and* on 11/3 to see if Dems can bring their turnout into closer alignment w/ elsewhere in FL. https://t.co/pCrnUUyze2

— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) October 28, 2020

Anyway, if you want to be nervy, it's in this realm

A lot of Trump's hope stems from this.

Biden's lead isn't *quite* comfortable enough in PA.

And although he has some *good* backup plans if he loses PA... namely AZ/FL/NC/GA...he doesn't have a *great* one being ahead only 1-3 points in those states.

— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) October 28, 2020

am hoping Iowa and Arizona will turn to us this election, maybe North Carolina too, but it's too much for me to expect anything from Florida again

Unless there are actual changes in the situation, Nate has to somehow fill seven more days saying "Trump probably won't win, but there are plausible though unlikely scenarios where he does win" in different words every three or for hours, I feel for the guy

Like father...

Don Jr begins talking about peace deals, then gets into a tangent about how he was “negative 5” when Biden was elected to Senate. “Where the hell was I? Ah, yeah — Middle East peace.”

— Dave Weigel, Re-Animator (@daveweigel) October 28, 2020

Ugh. I cannot escape misery tonight anywhere...but ILX.

It's rough out there

Pennsylvania does seem increasingly like the key to the election

it's soft and velvety in here, and smells like flowers

Thought this was interesting. Also horrifying.

https://secureservercdn.net/192.169.223.13/lz3.b02.myftpupload.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/Preventing_a_Disrupted_Presidential_Election_and_Transition_8-3-20.2.pdf

it's a parellel universe wall o' gina

Early vote count over 70 million.

I'm guessing the eventual total of votes cast will arrive in the vicinity of 150 million this time. Which would be amazing in a pandemic year.

Early vote count over 70 million.

― Ned Raggett, Tuesday, October 27, 2020

hope it goes up to 100+ million

Thought this was interesting. Also horrifying.

https://secureservercdn.net/192.169.223.13/lz3.b02.myftpupload.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/Preventing_a_Disrupted_Presidential_Election_and_Transition_8-3-20.2.pdf

What pollsters will miss because #landlines

https://www.ksat.com/vote-2020/2020/10/27/the-youth-vote-in-texas-is-up-by-more-than-600-from-last-presidential-election/

Just got back from voting. 2 hour wait and about 1.5 hours after they were supposed to close. Be sure to thank as many poll workers for their service!

Is there a good catch-all site for down ballot resolutions/propositions for localities? Before heading out to the polls, I had to struggle finding about what they logistically could result for my area.

Lol Trumps site got hacked

are there n00ds of him on it now

haven't found a catch-all for down ballot stuff but think Taniel's posts have been good

https://twitter.com/Taniel?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor

What pollsters will miss because #landlines

https://www.ksat.com/vote-2020/2020/10/27/the-youth-vote-in-texas-is-up-by-more-than-600-from-last-presidential-election/

― Patriotic Goiter (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Tuesday, October 27, 2020 8:48 PM (thirty-one minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink

they say young people don't vote but have they ever been subject to such an unlikeable, suffocating figure at the same time as a pandemic and a looming existential threat?? I can see young people getting involved in a way they didn't when I was 18 and it was Bush vs. Kerry

Meantime, a bunch of useless people like Benny Johnson and Jenna Ellis and the like are currently Mad On Twitter because Tucker Carlson did a Tony Bobulinski featured hour or something and literally nobody gave a shit. Seriously, they're posting stuff like this.

If that youth vote is really 2:1 in Biden's favor then the polling error would seem to be in Biden's favor this year... seems like more people would be talking about it, though?

A number of people are, increasingly; Wasserman has mentioned potential polling errors favoring Biden a few times.

As for lame Hunter Biden attempts

Per pool reporter @EliStokols, at the Trump rally tonight, the WiFi network was called “Where is Hunter?” and the password was “10FORTHEBIGGUY."

It was "largely non-functioning"

— Ben Jacobs (@Bencjacobs) October 28, 2020

remember the polling errors were in Obama's favor in 2012 which is why it was so easy to forecast that race (and why Nate got all 50 states right)

Don't really understand how lefties can be upset that @ProjectLincoln is starting a media company unless they

a)felt the same way about @PodSaveAmerica/@crookedmedia or Young Turks or...

b)changed their mind about need for a conservative but responsible alternative to Fox News?

— Clara Jeffery (@ClaraJeffery) October 27, 2020

God she's embarrassing

Who could have missed the lefties crying out for a responsible conservative news outlet?

pretty sure they already get CNN

if you're so tolerant, why won't you just adopt the beliefs you hate

Liberals won't even consider sponsoring a conservative Presidential candidate I say I say what is going on here