"Will you shut up, man?" US Politics October 2020

Getting a lot of those enthusiastic, motivated votes banked early hopefully frees up Dem organizers to get more less motivated voters out to the polls on or before Election Day.

all the early voting favoring Dems seems like a pretty good thing in a pandemic - even if Trump voters are enthusiastic, how many of them are really willing to stand for several hours in the cold and risk a life threatening disease to cast a vote for a candidate most people think is going to get crushed anyway?

and the total vote in 2016 was what... 130 million?

ah, 136.5 million. fucking libertarians.

136 million is what I saw referenced earlier today.

all the early voting favoring Dems seems like a pretty good thing in a pandemic - even if Trump voters are enthusiastic, how many of them are really willing to stand for several hours in the cold and risk a life threatening disease to cast a vote for a candidate most people think is going to get crushed anyway?

― frogbs, Tuesday, October 27, 2020 4:06 PM (ten minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink

yeah agreed, who knows....a vote counted now is a vote counted now...it could be something as you get a flat tire, who knows

Can we somehow trick 20 million Trump voters into giving themselves explosive diarrhea on election day

Talk about "exit polls," amirite?

Early returns

A tan wave election

Alfred, read that article, and tbh, all it really told me is that there are a load of 29-45 year old Cubans in Miami who aren't too smart. The quote from one left-leaning Cuban who laments that 'historical memory is short' is the definition of understatement-- it's as if people like Otaola are living in another dimension.

Isn't that all...you need to know?

I've been saying for years now this isn't complicated.

I mean, yeah, I guess that is all I need to know! Lol.

I have a... colleague, let's say, who is a young queer poet of Cuban descent...and he is the most conservative, reactionary poet of his generation that I've encountered. Very safe, measured, and frankly boring work. His family looks fabulously wealthy, and he is nice enough, but whew, his silence on certain issues is really telling to anyone paying attention. I thought of him a lot when I was reading that article

If you're pro Trump you're either dumb, an asshole, or a dumb asshole, no matter your demographic

Alfred[, read that article, and tbh, all it really told me is that there are a load of 29-45 year old Cubans in Miami who aren't too smart.

and you can thank the great schools of FL for that

I don't know much
But i know you're a dumb racist asshole
That may be
All i need to know

it's oNlY whEn you CALl me a dumb ASsHOLE THaT I'M foRceD TO VOTe FoR tRUmP

and you can thank the great schools of FL for that

― (•̪●) (carne asada),

Unnecessary. Most public school districts, constrained by testing, are shit at history and, worse, criticizing America.

The President is particularly hunting votes from suburban White woman, a group with which the first lady may hold some appeal...

I won't pretend to be an expert on suburban white women, but I question whether this is actually true.

True, I was a little cringed out by that comment. Xp

If you're pro Trump you're either dumb, an asshole, or a dumb asshole, no matter your demographic

Been my line from day one, tbh.

so they're just dumb than? that's cool xp

trump pretty clearly does not understand the suburbs

I think getting suburban white women is clearly a goal, but he just has no concept of how to communicate with that demo. See his comment today about "getting your husbands back to work" for example.

a group with which the first lady may hold some appeal...

it's not like Melania has gone out of her way to make herself accessible and well-liked by the public at large. in a way, her choice to stay mostly out of sight is refreshing. she's the first presidential spouse since Bess Truman to deliberately shun the spotlight and that's fine. but I can't fathom how she could change or influence anyone's vote.

The only people who give a shit about Melania have Pepe tattoos. Even Jesus freaks can’t turn her into an aspirational figure.

Melania as a relatable, hardworking soccer mom is a little beyond the pale.

Don't all yr white suburban women aspire to be like a frosty Eastern European fashion model who doesn't care about anything? And who is the famousky distant third wife of a rich fat hideous asshole?

Imma go ask my wife and I will report back.

The Daily podcast had an episode about the women who changed their minds since 2016, ie white suburban moms. It was a SUPER interesting story from an organizing perspective. Total "wine mom" stereotypes everywhere BUT some very touching moments. Worth a listen imo.

Re Trump and Florida ads: this makes sense, but also reflecting a pattern elsewhere (this is also happening in Texas IIRC). Might not seem like much but it means RNC money they can’t use elsewhere in turn:

According to Ad Analytics, the suggestion that Trump is going dark on his TV buys in FL is false

The campaign switched payee to the RNC. Ads are still running.

The election is in a week.

— Marc Caputo (@MarcACaputo) October 27, 2020

https://www.hindustantimes.com/rf/image_size_960x540/HT/p2/2020/08/28/Pictures/_10d553ce-e931-11ea-b0d0-732c2aa3f4c8.jpg

I AM MELANIA

i support wine moms

https://media.gq.com/photos/56d3fcb9062ab67b27fa8c75/4:3/w_475,h_356,c_limit/Screen%20Shot%202016-02-29%20at%2012.08.46%20AM.png

Florida is so essential that the initial news about the ads made me scowl.

I could maybe believe they're pulling ads in Florida because they think they have it in the bag.

By which you mean, colostomy bag

Did Trump really make a joke about Biden being shot?

https://www.esquire.com/news-politics/a34487228/supreme-court-throw-out-mail-ballots/?fbclid=IwAR2sH2MUqzmnbbdAAAhh_UupTuV3-xlvAaJBmaejSA8TLV2h66plpMboTjk

If you're pro Trump you're either dumb, an asshole, or a dumb asshole, no matter your demographic

Boy did you just let a large part of my extended family off the hook.

xp ugh i can't handle the outrage-click articles right now

While not diminishing how fucked up the Wisconsin ruling was, that Esquire piece is shook alarmism.

Got one paragraph in and wondered if umair haque wrote it

Like yes - that ruling could possibly throw out legitimate ballots by the thousand that were only late due to a gutted mail service. No argument, I'm angry about that.

This is 3 million miles away from "nobody vote by mail, none of them will be counted, all will be discarded" (which the article basically says)

Idg why journalists think it's a good idea to give liberals heart attacks a week out. There is nothing we can do in advance to stop any fuckery. And I doubt any of us are going to sit idly by and take it if and when it happens.

But if millions of voters are experiencing mental health crises, ain't gonna be in any shape to protest

Idg why journalists think it's a good idea to give liberals heart attacks a week out

it gets clicks

fbclid=IwAR2sH2MUqzmnbbdAAAhh_UupTuV3-xlvAaJBmaejSA8TLV2h66plpMboTjk

Rule one of journalism is that The Story Has To Change

Wasserman notes this, and it's worth remembering:

We'll be watching Miami-Dade closely in the remaining early vote *and* on 11/3 to see if Dems can bring their turnout into closer alignment w/ elsewhere in FL. https://t.co/pCrnUUyze2

— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) October 28, 2020

Anyway, if you want to be nervy, it's in this realm

A lot of Trump's hope stems from this.

Biden's lead isn't *quite* comfortable enough in PA.

And although he has some *good* backup plans if he loses PA... namely AZ/FL/NC/GA...he doesn't have a *great* one being ahead only 1-3 points in those states.

— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) October 28, 2020

am hoping Iowa and Arizona will turn to us this election, maybe North Carolina too, but it's too much for me to expect anything from Florida again

Unless there are actual changes in the situation, Nate has to somehow fill seven more days saying "Trump probably won't win, but there are plausible though unlikely scenarios where he does win" in different words every three or for hours, I feel for the guy

Like father...

Don Jr begins talking about peace deals, then gets into a tangent about how he was “negative 5” when Biden was elected to Senate. “Where the hell was I? Ah, yeah — Middle East peace.”

— Dave Weigel, Re-Animator (@daveweigel) October 28, 2020